4月份中國資本外流仍在持續

Capital flows from China persisted in April despite a reported rise in foreign exchange reserves, which mainly reflec-ted the impact of a weaker dollar on the central bank’s euro and yen holdings.

雖然有報道稱中國外匯儲備出現回升，但4月份中國資本外流仍在持續。中國外匯儲備增加主要反映的是，美元走弱對中國央行持有的歐元和日元資產的影響。

After falling for 18 of 20 months until February, slicing $791bn off the headline total, China’s official reserves rose by a combined $17bn in March and April, hitting $3.22tn last month.

在截至今年2月的20個月中，中國有18個月外匯儲備出現下降，總計減少7910億美元。而3月和4月，中國外匯儲備共計增加170億美元，在4月末達到3.22萬億美元。

But a look inside the data suggests significant latent outflow pressure remains. China has also benefited from global tailwinds in recent months that may not last. The strongest of these is the pause in interest rate rises by the US Federal Reserve, which caused a broad decline in the dollar versus global currencies.

但細看該數據可知，中國仍潛藏着很大的資本外流壓力。近幾月，中國同樣受益於全球有利形勢，但這種形勢或許不會持續。其中最大的利好是美聯儲(Fed)暫停加息，這導致美元相對全球各地的貨幣出現普遍貶值。

“No matter due to tacit policy co-ordination or just dumb luck, the weakened US dollar has greatly eased the pressure on renminbi and capital outflows from China,” Larry Hu, a China economist at Macquarie Securities, wrote yesterday.

麥格理證券(Macquarie Securities)中國經濟學家胡偉俊(Larry Hu)昨日寫道：“不管是因爲心照不宣的政策協調還是僅靠偶然的運氣，美元走弱都極大地緩解了人民幣以及中國資本外流的壓力。”

Fundamentals have certainly improved since the renminbi’s sharp fall in early January sent shockwaves through global markets. Predictions that uncontrolled capital flight would lead to a collapse in the renminbi, or rapid depletion of China’s reserves, now look increasingly rash.

自1月初人民幣匯率暴跌對全球市場造成衝擊以來，中國經濟基本面的確有所改善。有人預測，無法控制的資本外逃將導致人民幣崩盤，或者導致中國外匯儲備快速耗盡，但現在看來，這些預測越來越顯得輕率。

The People’s Bank of China’s use of forex reserves to stabilise the renminbi exchange rate, a tactic that has been derided as unsustainable, has largely succeeded in beating back speculators. Hedge funds that placed bets on renminbi depreciation are rethinking their strategy.

中國央行利用外匯儲備穩定人民幣匯率的策略——被譏諷爲不可持續——大體上成功地擊退了投機者。押注人民幣貶值的對衝基金正在重新思考各自的策略。

But the delay in Fed tightening has been crucial to the slowdown in outflows. The Fed’s rate rise in December, combined with easing steps by the PBoC since late 2014, had drawn funds out of China. But amid signs that China’s economy has stabilised, the PBoC has done no further easing since late February.

但美聯儲推遲加息對中國資本外流放緩至關重要。美聯儲去年12月的加息，以及中國央行自2014年底以後實施的寬鬆措施，促使資金撤離中國。但由於看到中國經濟已經企穩的跡象，中國央行自2月底以來便不再進一步出臺寬鬆政策。

A weaker dollar also boosts China’s headline reserves directly through valuation effects, by increasing the dollar-denominated value of the PBoC’s non-dollar assets. Royal Bank of Scotland estimates that mark-to-market accounting boosted China’s headline reserves by a total of $54bn in March and April — implying that on a flow basis, reserves continued to decline.

美元走弱也通過估值效應——使中國央行非美元資產以美元計算的價值出現增加——直接提振中國整體外匯儲備數字。蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)估計，今年3月和4月，以市值計價的會計制度令中國外匯儲備數字共計增加了540億美元——這表明，從資本流動的角度來說，外匯儲備仍在繼續下降。

Further, if inflows from trade and foreign direct investment are stripped out, China suffered portfolio outflows of about $45bn in both March and April, said RBS. While far less alarming than outflows of roughly $200bn last August, this figure shows that sentiment-driven capital is still leaving China.

此外，蘇格蘭皇家銀行表示，如果不計入貿易和外國直接投資帶來的資本流入，中國在3月和4月都出現了約450億美元的證券投資流出。雖然這與去年8月約2000億美元的流出規模相比沒那麼令人擔憂，但這個數字表明，受情緒驅動的資本仍在撤離中國。

“If the Fed hikes rates later this year and the Chinese economy rolls over again, forcing the PBoC to take more easing measures, we could see depreciation pressures re-emerge,” said Harrison Hu, China economist at RBS in Singapore.

蘇格蘭皇家銀行駐新加坡中國經濟學家胡志鵬(Harrison Hu)表示：“如果美聯儲今年晚些時候加息，同時中國經濟再次出現惡化，迫使中國央行採取更多寬鬆措施，我們會看到貶值壓力再次出現。”

The PBoC’s efforts to staunch the outflows have also come at a cost to its own credibility and long-term reform goals.

中國央行遏制資本外流的努力也讓其在公信力以及長期改革目標方面付出了代價。

The central bank has repeatedly said it intends to let market forces set the exchange rate and reduce capital controls that limit cross-border flows. But since last year that goal has taken a back seat to efforts to restore stability.

它曾一再表示要讓市場力量來決定匯率，減少限制跨境流動的資本管制。但自去年以來，這一目標已讓位於恢復穩定的舉措。

Not only has the PBoC spent hundreds of billions of dollars of reserves to defend the exchange rate, it has reimposed some capital controls in an effort to discourage currency speculation. Those include restricting forex purchases by individuals and halting a programme to allow Chinese residents to invest in foreign hedge funds.

中國央行不僅耗費數千億美元外匯儲備來捍衛人民幣匯率，還重新實施了部分資本管制措施，以阻止外匯投機。這些措施包括限制個人購買外匯，以及中止一項允許中國居民投資海外對衝基金的計劃。

Ironically, backsliding on pro-market reforms is largely the result of the central bank’s well-intentioned but poorly communicated effort to reduce intervention. In August, when the PBoC announced changes to the way it sets the exchange rate, it framed the move as a step towards granting more influence to market forces. But as the change came at a time when market forces were certain to push the currency weaker, many foreign investors interpreted it as an act of competitive devaluation to boost exports.

具有諷刺意味的是，市場化改革的倒退在很大程度上由中國央行減少干預的努力導致——這項努力初衷雖好，但沒有做好溝通工作。去年8月，中國央行宣佈改革匯率形成機制，並將此舉視爲朝着讓市場力量發揮更大作用的方向邁出的一步。但由於此次改革正值市場力量肯定會推動人民幣走弱之際，許多外國投資者將之解讀爲以競爭性貶值來提振出口的行爲。

Even at the time, many analysts said this cynical interpretation was wrong, noting that China’s trade surplus was already near record highs. But the market’s panicked response to the August move, which led to unprecedented capital outflow and a much sharper fall in the exchange rate than the central bank had anticipated, essentially forced the PBoC to return to large-scale market intervention.

即便在當時，許多分析師也表示，這種充滿懷疑的解讀是錯誤的，他們還指出中國的貿易順差已逼近歷史高位。但市場對中國央行去年8月舉措的恐慌反應——導致前所未有的資本外流和遠超中國央行預期的匯率跌幅——實際上迫使中國央行重新回到大規模市場干預的老路。

This intervention focused on propping up the exchange rate, further undermining the PBoC “currency war” interpretation. But even so it strengthened the broader view that the PBoC would never relinquish control of its exchange rate.

此輪干預主要聚焦於支撐匯率，這進一步削弱了關於中國央行進行“貨幣戰”的解讀。但它也強化了一個更爲普遍的看法，即中國央行絕不會放棄對人民幣匯率的控制。

“Recently, the central bank has focused on maintaining stability but that’s not the direction of reform. It’s more like imposing stability is an ad hoc measure,” said Zhang Bin, senior fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a think-tank that advises the government. “As for when the central bank will return to pushing forward reforms, at the moment it’s tough to say.”

“最近，央行專注於維護（匯率）穩定，但這並非改革的方向。維護匯率穩定更像是一種臨時措施，”爲政府獻策的智庫中國社會科學院(CASS)的高級研究員張斌說，“至於央行何時迴歸推進改革之路，目前還很難說。”