退歐把英鎊逼到懸崖邊緣
Fears of a severe rupture between the UK and the EU has driven the pound to its lowest level on record, according to a Bank of England trade-weighted index, and politics is set to dictate whether the currency extends losses or can stabilise.
對英國和歐盟(EU)間關係嚴重破壞的擔憂把英鎊匯率壓低至有記錄以來的最低水平（根據英國央行(BoE)的一個貿易加權指數），而政治將決定這種貨幣是會擴大跌幅還是企穩。
The pound’s effective exchange rate, which is weighted to reflect the UK’s trade flows, hit a low of 73.38 according to the latest daily reading compiled by the BoE — weaker than the depths hit during the financial crisis, Britain’s ejection from the European Rate Mechanism in 1992, and its departure from the Gold Standard in the 1930s.
根據英國央行每日編制的這一指數，英鎊實際匯率跌至73.38的低點。這種實際匯率爲反映英國貿易流狀況而經過了加權處理。該讀數比金融危機期間、1992年英國脫離歐洲匯率機制(European Exchange Rate Mechanism)期間、以及上世紀30年代英鎊脫離金本位期間所跌至的水平都要低。
Sterling recovered against the dollar yesterday, but came off session highs as the market assessed the promised parliamentary debate on Brexit proposals.
昨天，英鎊兌美元匯率有所回升。不過，在市場評估有關英國議會將圍繞退歐方案展開辯論的承諾之際，該匯率從盤中高點回落。
Theresa May, prime minister, agreed to opposition demands for “a full and transparent” Brexit debate in parliament before activating the Article 50 clause that will start the UK’s divorce proceedings with the EU, but stopped short of promising to allow MPs a formal vote on the government’s negotiating strategy.
英國首相特里薩•梅(Theresa May)答應了反對黨提出的要求，同意在激活第50條（此舉將啓動英國脫離歐盟進程）之前在議會開展“全面而透明”的退歐辯論，但沒有承諾允許議員就英國政府脫歐談判的戰略舉行正式投票。
During exchanges in the Commons, subsequent remarks from David Davis, the cabinet minister in charge of leaving the EU, sounded less conciliatory — and the extent of the pound’s recovery waned. Against the dollar, sterling remained up on the day, by 0.8 per cent at $1.2209, but off a peak that had pushed it up 1.8 per cent.
在下院的交鋒中，負責退歐的內閣部長戴維•戴維斯(David Davis)隨後的講話聽起來不那麼客氣——英鎊的復甦勢頭隨之減弱。當天，英鎊兌美元匯率依然保持了上漲，漲幅爲0.8%，達到1英鎊兌1.2209美元，不過卻低於當天的峯值漲幅1.8%。
Earlier, analysts had welcomed the prospect of closer scrutiny of the terms of the deal to leave the EU, saying news reports of MPs’ greater involvement in the Brexit process triggered the rally against the dollar.
早先，分析師們對於加強對退歐協議條款審查的可能性表示歡迎。他們表示，有關英國議員更大程度介入英國退歐進程的新聞報道，引發了英鎊兌美元匯率的上漲。
Koon Chow, a macroeconomics and FX strategist at UBP, said the promise of a debate “encouraged people to think that a ‘check and balance’ on the Brexit timing and process may still exist,” adding: “In turn, that reduces the risk of the Conservative government pushing the UK through the most economically excruciating channel of exit.
瑞士聯合私立銀行(UBP)宏觀經濟和外匯策略師Koon Chow表示，承諾舉行一場辯論可能“鼓勵人們認爲或許依然存在對英國退歐的時間和流程的‘制衡’，”他補充說：“這進而降低了保守黨政府以一種在經濟上最痛苦的方式推動英國退歐的風險。”
“This has stopped additional pound selling for now and may hold the line for the pound in the next couple days.”
“這阻止了人們在當下拋售更多的英鎊，或許將在接下來幾天不再拋出英鎊。”
Ulrich Leuchtmann, a strategist at Commerzbank, said the latest UK political twist does not change the outlook for the pound. “Anyone still holding unhedged sterling positions will have to realise that an attempt to rescue a currency can sometimes come too late or can be unsuccessful,” he said.
德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)策略師烏爾裏希•洛伊希特曼(Ulrich Leuchtmann)表示，英國最近的政治曲折不會改變英鎊的前景。“任何依然持有未經對衝的英鎊頭寸的人必須意識到，挽救一種貨幣的嘗試有時候可能來得太晚，或者可能不成功，”他說。
“In that case, the current sterling recovery would constitute the very last breather before exactly that major slide.”
“在那種情況下，眼下英鎊的復甦將成爲大幅下挫之前的最後一個喘息期。”
