難敵經濟頹勢 俄羅斯雨天基金明年或枯竭

After almost two years in recession, the country's rainy day fund has shrunk to just $32.2 billion this month, according to the Russian Finance Ministry. It was $91.7 billion in September 2014, just before oil prices started to collapse.

經過將近兩年的經濟衰退之後，據俄羅斯財政部表示，俄羅斯的雨天基金本月已經削減至322億美元。而2014年9月石油價格剛開始崩潰，雨天基金達917美元。

And it's getting worse. Analysts expect the fund will shrink to just $15 billion by the end of this year and dry up completely soon after that.

更糟糕的是，這種持續下滑狀態並沒有停止。分析師預計該基金今年年底將削減至150億美元，不久後將會完全枯竭。

"At the current rate, the fund would be depleted in mid-2017, perhaps a few months later," Ondrej Schneider, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, wrote in a note.

國際金融協會首席經濟學家奧德·施耐德在一份報告中寫道，“以目前的速度，雨天基金將於2017年年中耗盡，或許再遲幾個月。”

The government's reserve fund is designed to cover shortfalls in the national budget at times of low oil and gas revenues.

雨天基金是政府應急備用金，這項政府儲備僅僅旨在石油和天然氣收入低的情況下國家預算的不足。

Russia's 2016 budget is based on the assumption the country would be able to sell its oil for $50 per barrel.

俄羅斯2016年的預算是基於油價每桶50美元的假設。

But the average oil price in the first eight months of the year was less than $43 per barrel. Oil now makes up just 37% of all government revenues, compared to roughly 50% just two years ago.

但今年過去的前八個月裏，平均油價低於43美元/桶。石油收入現在只佔俄羅斯政府收入的37%，而兩年前這一比率高達約50%。

This slump means the government is having to tap the rainy day fund again and again.

這種衰退意味着俄羅斯政府不得不一遍一遍吸食雨天基金。

The government indicated that once the reserves are depleted, it may have to turn to its welfare fund.

俄羅斯政府表示，一旦雨天基金儲備耗盡，政府將不得不轉向使用福利基金。

Kremlin says the welfare fund has over $70 billion in it. The fund is not intended to cover budget shortfalls, but rather to finance future pensions and large-scale investment projects.

克里姆林宮表示，福利基金規模超過700億美元，但該基金並不是用作覆蓋預算的不足，而是用作未來養老金以及大規模投資項目。

Schneider said the assets in the fund are less liquid, so it might even be technically impossible for the government to withdraw from it aggressively.

施耐德表示，該基金的資產流動性較差，所以政府甚至在技術上不可能從該基金裏積極提現。

Russia's central bank cut interest rates last Friday, to 10% from 10.50%, in a further attempt to kick start the economy.

上週五，俄羅斯央行將利率下降50個基點至10%，這意味着俄羅斯政府進一步嘗試啓動經濟。

The central bank still has $395 billion in international reserves, down from $524 billion in October 2013. The bank burned through more than $140 billion in foreign currency reserves between 2014 and 2015, trying to defend the ruble from collapsing.

俄羅斯央行目前有3950億美元的國際儲備，而2013年10月則有5240億美元。爲了試圖防止盧布暴跌，從2014年到2015年，俄羅斯央行已經“燒掉”了超過1400億美元的外匯儲備。

The strategy didn't work and the bank slowly abandoned it. The ruble dropped to the lowest ever in January, when it was trading at 82 rubles per U.S. dollar. It is now trading at 65 rubles per dollar.

但是這一策略並沒有奏效，俄羅斯央行也慢慢放棄了。今年1月，盧布降至歷史最低，當時，1美元可以換82盧布，現在1美元換65盧布。

The slump in oil prices has hit Russia at the time it was already suffering because of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries over its role in the crisis in Ukraine.

油價暴跌衝擊了當時由於烏克蘭危機引起的西方國家的經濟制裁之下已經困苦不堪的俄羅斯。

They've cut off Russia's most important companies from European financing, banned imports of certain products and froze funds of key officials.

由於俄羅斯在烏克蘭政治危機中所扮演的角色，西方國家切斷了俄羅斯最重要的公司從歐洲融資，禁止某些產品的進口，並凍結俄羅斯重要官員的資金。

Russia retaliated by imposing import restrictions on European food products. That caused a headache to European farmers, but also pushed Russian inflation to double digit levels.

作爲報復，俄羅斯對歐洲食品產品實施進口限制，這讓歐洲農民很頭疼，但也將俄羅斯通貨膨脹推至兩位數水平。