低油價是經濟增長的福音嗎 The consequences of cheap oil
After years in which $100 oil was the norm, the price of Brent crude is now around a third of that. Assume for a moment that Russia and Saudi Arabia fail in their efforts to get the price back up. Will $30 oil change the world? The answer is yes, of course. Everything is connected to everything else in economics, and that is particularly true when it comes to oil. For all the talk of the weightless economy, we’re not quite so post-industrial as to be able to ignore the cost of energy. Because oil is versatile and easy to transport, it remains the lubricant for the world’s energy system.
在許多年裏，每桶石油在100美元以上是常態，如今，布倫特(Brent)原油價格只有那個水平的三分之一左右。假設俄羅斯與沙特阿拉伯短時間內無法讓油價回升，每桶30美元的油價會改變世界嗎？當然，答案是肯定的。在經濟學中，一切因素都彼此關聯——對石油來說就尤其如此了。雖然大家都在談論“無重量經濟”(weightless economy)，但我們的後工業化水平還沒有達到可以忽略能源成本的程度。因爲用途廣泛且易於運輸，石油仍是全球能源系統的潤滑劑。
The rule of thumb has always been that while low oil prices are bad for the planet, they’re good for the economy. Last year a report from PwC estimated that a permanent fall in the price of oil by $50 would boost the size of the UK economy by about 1 per cent over five years, since the benefits — to most sectors but particularly to heavy industry, agriculture and air travel — would outweigh the costs to the oil production industry itself.
經驗法則告訴我們，低油價雖然對地球不是好事，卻有利於經濟發展。去年，普華永道(PwC)發佈的一份報告估計，油價長期性地跌去50美元，將使英國經濟規模5年內擴張1%左右，因爲低油價給大多數行業——尤其是重工業、農業及航空業——帶來的好處將超過石油生產行業本身所遭受的損失。
That represents the conventional wisdom, as well as historical experience. Oil was cheap throughout America’s halcyon years of the 1950s and 1960s; the oil shocks of the 1970s came alongside serious economic pain. The boom of the 1990s was usually credited to the world wide web but oil prices were very low and they soared to record levels in the run-up to the great recession. We can debate how important the oil price fluctuations were but the link between good times and cheap oil is not a coincidence.
這既是一般觀點也是歷史經驗。上世紀五、六十年代美國歌舞昇平時期，油價始終都很便宜；70年代的石油危機伴隨着嚴重的經濟危機。90年代的繁榮通常被歸功於互聯網，其實油價當時很低，後來在“大衰退”前夕才飆升到了創紀錄水平。我們可以爭論油價波動的重要性，但繁榮時期與廉價石油之間的關聯並非巧合。
Here’s a piece of back-of-the-envelope economics. The world consumes nearly 100 million barrels a day of oil, which is $10bn a day — or $3.5tn a year — at the $100 price to which we’ve become accustomed. A sustained collapse in the oil price would slice more than $2tn off that bill — set against a world economic output of around $80tn, that’s far from trivial. It is a huge transfer from the wallets of oil producers to those of oil consumers.
我們可以粗略地算一下：全世界每天消耗近1億桶石油，按照我們習慣的每桶100美元計算，每天需要花費100億美元，一年下來是3.5萬億美元。油價持續暴跌將使這筆開支減少逾2萬億美元，而與80萬億美元左右的世界經濟產出相比，這並非微不足道。這是一筆從產油國轉移至石油消費國的鉅額財富。
Such large swings in purchasing power always used to boost economic growth, because while producers were saving the profits from high prices, consumers tended to spend the windfall from low ones. One of the concerns about today’s low prices is that the positions may be reversing: the big winners, American consumers, are using the spare cash to pay off debts; meanwhile, losers such as Russia and Saudi Arabia are cutting back sharply on investment and public spending. If carried to extremes, that would mean a good old-fashioned Keynesian slowdown in a world economy trying to spend less and save more; the more likely result of which is that lower oil prices fail to give us the boost we hope for.
購買力方面的大幅變動在過去通常會刺激經濟增長，因爲生產商會把從高價中獲得的利潤儲蓄起來，而消費者則傾向於花掉從低價中節省下來的錢。當前低油價令人擔憂的一個地方是，情況可能顛倒了過來：作爲大贏家的美國消費者正在利用省下的錢償還債務；與此同時，俄羅斯、沙特等輸家正在大幅削減投資及公共支出。如果發展到極端，人們都試圖減少開支、增加儲蓄，世界經濟將出現一場傳統的凱恩斯式放緩；這樣的後果是，低油價很可能無法帶來我們期待的經濟刺激效果。
It is intriguing to contemplate some of the less obvious effects. Charles Courtemanche, a health economist at Georgia State University, has found a correlation between low gasoline prices and high obesity rates in the United States. That is partly because, when oil prices are high, people may get out of their cars and walk, cycle or get public transport. Cheap gasoline, on the other hand, puts disposable income into the pockets of families who are likely to spend it on eating out. Low oil prices may make us fat.
低油價還有一些不那麼明顯的影響很是耐人尋味。喬治亞州立大學(Georgia State University)健康經濟學家查爾斯•庫特芒希(Charles Courtemanche)發現，美國汽油價格低企與高肥胖率之間存在相關性。部分原因在於，油價高時，人們可能減少開車，選擇步行、騎自行車或乘坐公共交通工具。另一方面，廉價汽油爲家庭節省了可支配收入，而他們很可能把這些錢花在外出就餐上。低油價可能會讓我們變胖。
Another depressing possibility is that low oil prices will slow down the rate of innovation in the clean energy sector. The cheaper the oil, the less incentive there is to invent ways of saving it. There is clear evidence for this over the very long run. As recently as the late 1700s, British potters were using wasteful Bronze Age technology for their kilns. The reason? Energy was cheap. Wages, in contrast, were expensive — which is why the industrial revolution was all about saving labour, not saving energy.
另一個令人沮喪的可能性是，低油價會阻礙清潔能源領域的創新步伐。油價越便宜，發明新的節油方法的動力就越小。在這方面，歷史上有明顯的證據。18世紀頭十年末期的時候，英國陶藝坊燒窯時使用的還是耗能很高的青銅時代的技術。原因何在？能源很便宜。相比之下，工資較高——這就是爲什麼工業革命的所有發明圍繞的都是節約勞動力，而非節省能源。
More recently, David Popp, an economist at Syracuse University, looked at the impact of the oil price shocks of the 1970s. He found that inventors emerged from the woodwork to file oil-saving patents in fields from heat pumps to solar panels.
最近，錫拉丘茲大學(Syracuse University)經濟學家大衛•波普(David Popp)研究了上世紀70年代石油危機造成的影響。他發現，當時大批發明家申請了從加熱泵到太陽能電池板等領域的節油專利。
It is always possible that the oil price collapse will do little to affect some of the big technological shifts in the energy market. The scale of oil production from hydraulic fracturing (fracking) in the US may be curtailed but a huge technological leap has already happened. As the chief economist of BP, Spencer Dale, recently commented, fracking is starting to look less like the huge, long-term oil-drilling projects of the past, and more like manufacturing: cheap, lean, replicable and scalable. Low oil prices cannot undo that and the efficiencies may well continue. We can hope for ever-cheaper solar power too: photovoltaic cells do not compete closely with oil, and we may continue to see more and more installations and lower and lower prices.
始終存在這樣的可能性，油價暴跌不會對能源市場中一些重大技術變革造成影響。在美國，利用水力壓裂技術生產石油的規模可能有所縮減，但一場巨大的技術飛躍已經發生。英國石油(BP)首席經濟學家斯賓塞•戴爾(Spencer Dale)最近稱，水力壓裂技術看起來已不再像過去那些龐大、長期的石油鑽探項目，而開始更像製造業：廉價、精益、可複製、可擴展。低油價不會破壞這一進程，其效能將很好地延續下去。我們也可以寄希望於更廉價的太陽能：光伏電池還競爭不過石油，我們或許將看到越來越多的太陽能設備，以及越來越低的太陽能電價。
That said, when fossil fuels are cheap, people will find ways to burn them, and that’s gloomy news for our prospects of curtailing climate change. We can’t rely on high oil and coal prices to discourage consumption: the world needs — as it has needed for decades — a credible, internationally co-ordinated tax on carbon.
儘管如此，當化石燃料價格較低時，人們會找到各種方法利用它們，這對我們減緩氣候變化的前景來說不是好消息。我們不能依靠高昂的石油和煤炭價格來抑制消費：世界需要（幾十年來一直需要）一個可靠的、國際協調的碳稅體系。
Wall Street analysts have slashed expectations for US earnings in the first quarter as companies grapple with plummeting oil prices and slow economic growth.
華爾街分析師大幅調降了對第一季度美國企業盈利的預期，原因是油價暴跌和經濟增長放緩令企業難以應對。
The growing pessimism comes amid a brutal start to the year for the stock market during which the S&P 500 has been marked by volatility as the outlook for global economic growth darkens, led by uncertainty over the slowdown in China.
人們的悲觀情緒越來越強烈之際，隨着全球經濟增長前景變得黯淡（尤其是中國經濟放緩帶來不確定性），股市今年出現了極爲糟糕的開局，標普500(S&P 500)指數出現了大幅波動。
At the outset of the year, analysts had forecast a return to growth of 0.6 per cent in US first-quarter earnings per share on a year-on-year basis, according to FactSet. They have since marked estimates down to a decline of 7.4 per cent.
根據FactSet的數據，今年伊始分析師們預計美國第一季度每股盈利會恢復增長，同比增幅達到0.6%。自那以來，他們已經把盈利估計下調至降低7.4%。
“It does appear that companies are having difficulty gaining traction in this low-growth environment and that is putting downward pressure on earnings,” said Alan Gayle, director of asset allocation at RidgeWorth Investments.
RidgeWorth Investments資產配置主任艾倫•蓋爾(Alan Gayle)表示：“企業在這種低增長環境下似乎難以獲得增長動力，這給企業盈利帶來了下行壓力。”
The potential quarter of shrinking profits follows the worst earnings season since the aftermath of the financial crisis during which earnings have fallen for three consecutive quarters and revenues have fallen for four.
在這一企業利潤可能縮水的季度之前，美國遭遇了自金融危機爆發以來的最差業績報告季，企業盈利連續三個季度下跌，營收連續四個季度下滑。
Early forecasts that 2016 would provide a turnround have been re-evaluated largely because of an expected earnings drop of 93 per cent at energy companies, as the price of crude oil dropped to a 13-year low. That is nearly double the decrease analysts had projected for the sector two months ago.
起初，人們曾預計2016年會出現止跌回升的現象。然而，這一預期已在很大程度上被重新評估，原因是能源企業因原油價格跌至13年低點而致預期盈利下滑93%，這一下跌幅度幾乎是分析師們兩個月前對該產業預計降幅的兩倍。
Forecasts were for revenues for S&P 500 companies to shrink 0.6 per cent, while at year-end analysts were looking for growth of 2.6 per cent.
對標普500成分股企業的預期是營收縮水0.6%，而在去年年底分析師曾預計會增長2.6%。
Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at BlackRock, said: “We have a world where global growth is expected to have come down, financial market conditions have tightened and energy prices have fallen further. All of these are headwinds at the market level and not a great environment to grow the top line.”
貝萊德(BlackRock)首席投資策略師拉斯•凱斯特里奇(Russ Koesterich)表示：“我們面臨的是一個全球增長預計將會放緩、金融市場狀況趨緊、能源價格進一步下滑的世界。所有這些都是市場層面上的不利因素，對營收的增長十分不利。”
Neither top nor bottom line growth is expected to return until the second half of the year and investors say the worsening outlook could mean further stock market declines.
預計不論營收還是利潤，在今年下半年以前都不會恢復增長。投資者表示，不斷惡化的前景可能意味着股市會進一步下跌。
“Sentiment has stabilised recently,” Mr Gayle said. “The negative revisions I don’t think have really sunk in. From that perspective, I think there is more downside risk in the market as we get closer to first-quarter earnings season.”
“市場情緒最近已趨於穩定。”蓋爾表示。“我認爲這些負面的下調還未真正被人們認識到。從這個角度來說，我認爲隨着一季度業績公佈季節日益臨近，市場還存在更多下行風險。”
Companies have also disappointed investors with their own outlooks.
企業自身的前景展望也令投資者失望。
About 110 companies in the index have issued EPS guidance for the first quarter with 88 issuing projections below analysts’ expectations, worse than the five-year average of 72 per cent.
標普500指數的成分股企業中，大約有110家企業發佈了第一季度每股盈利指引，其中88家企業發佈的預期低於分析師的預測，這一比例高於72%的五年平均。
