新興市場警報尚未解除 Fed rate rise threatens to hurt emerging markets
A momentous era in monetary history is over. A hike in short-term US interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade has called an end to the near-zero borrowing costs that have prevailed since the financial crisis. Equity investors welcomed the move, sending stock prices higher in the US, Europe and Asia. Even emerging markets, many of which have feared the fallout from a US rise, generally took the widely expected move in their stride.
貨幣政策歷史上的一個重要時代已經結束。美國短期利率近10年來的首次上調，終結了自金融危機以來廣泛存在的近乎爲零的借款成本。股市投資者對此舉表示歡迎，美國、歐洲和亞洲股價均被推高。甚至連新興市場（其中很多國家一直擔心美國加息的影響）也基本上對這一普遍預期中的舉措處之泰然。
The short-term reaction, however, should not obscure the fundamental challenge that a tightening in US monetary policy poses to developing economies that together account for about 35 per cent of global gross domestic product. If the Federal Reserve’s tightening trajectory is sustained in 2016 — and its own forecast suggests that it should be — the impact on two particularly vulnerable aspects could prove considerable. One of these is the unwinding of a huge emerging market borrowing boom that was fuelled by US-inspired easy money. Another is that China, beset by record capital outflows, could be forced to allow a deep depreciation of its currency, the renminbi.
然而，短期反應不應掩蓋美國貨幣政策收緊對發展中經濟體構成的根本挑戰。發展中經濟體佔全球經濟產出的35%左右。如果美聯儲(Fed)的貨幣收緊趨勢在2016年繼續保持（美聯儲自己的預測顯示應該會是如此），那麼事實可能會證明，它對兩個尤爲脆弱的方面將產生巨大影響。其中一個是新興市場大規模借款熱潮結束，該熱潮之前曾受到由美國導致的寬鬆貨幣的助燃。另一個是受到創紀錄資本外流困擾的中國可能被迫讓人民幣大幅貶值。
The dimensions of the debt problem are forbidding. Some $9tn in capital has flowed into emerging markets since early 2005, inflating domestic debt levels to an unprecedented 160 per cent of GDP, up from just over 100 per cent before the financial crisis, according to data compiled by the Institute of International Finance, an industry association that has members in 70 countries. Most of this debt has piled up on the balance sheets of non-financial companies, which now owe around $24tn, or 90 per cent of total emerging market GDP. Households, which have also gorged themselves on cheap money, have built up debts of about $8tn, equivalent to another 30 per cent of GDP.
債務問題的規模相當可怕。根據國際金融協會(Institute of International Finance)編制的數據，自2005年初以來，有大約9萬億美元資金流入新興市場，令這些國家的國內債務與國內生產總值(GDP)之比升至空前的160%，而在金融危機之前該比率僅略高於100%。國際金融協會是一個行業協會，其會員來自全球70個國家。這些債務多數累積在非金融類企業的資產負債表上，這些企業現在借款約24萬億美元，爲新興市場GDP總額的90%。家庭部門也大舉借入了廉價資金，債務已累積至約8萬億美元，相當於GDP的30%。
The danger now is that tightening US policy will foist a credit crunch on to emerging markets, increasing corporate defaults. Indeed, the squeeze already under way is stiffening. Emerging market companies are being asked to pay more to service debts, while sources of finance are dwindling, according to the investment bank arm of HSBC. Reinforcing these effects is evidence that the surge of capital that flowed into emerging markets over the past decade has started to reverse. The IIF forecasts that, for the first time since 1988, developing countries will suffer a net capital outflow this year.
現在的危險是，美國收緊貨幣政策將把信貸緊縮強加給新興市場，企業違約數量將因此增多。實際上，已出現的信貸緊縮正在加劇。根據匯豐(HSBC)旗下投行的數據，新興市場企業正被要求支付更多金額來償債，而資金來源卻在縮減。過去10年新興市場資金流入飆升的趨勢已開始逆轉，便是這些影響正在加劇的證明。國際金融協會預測，發展中國家今年將遭遇資本淨流出，這是1988年以來的首次。
Of course, the impact is not being felt evenly throughout emerging markets. Most exposed are countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa, which rely on a drip-feed of international capital to service ballooning domestic deficits and corporate profligacy. In addition, companies that have borrowed heavily in US dollars but earn incomes in their local currency are particularly vulnerable to the prospect of a stronger dollar backed by a more hawkish Fed.
當然，新興市場受到的影響並不一致。受到最嚴重影響的是巴西、印尼、俄羅斯和南非等國，它們依賴國際資本的注入來彌補日益擴大的國內赤字和企業揮霍。另外，大舉借入美元但收入爲本幣的企業，尤其容易受到美元升值前景的影響，而更爲強硬的美聯儲正在支撐這一前景。
China presents a challenge of a different nature. Its monetary cycle is out of kilter with that of the Fed, with analysts predicting that Beijing will cut its benchmark interest rate twice during 2016. Such loosening, coupled with capital outflows that surged to a monthly record of $113bn in November, may add to pressures on the renminbi to depreciate against the US dollar next year. If this happens, history has shown that an Asia-centred currency war may well erupt.
中國面臨的挑戰則不同。其貨幣週期與美聯儲並不同步，分析師預測，中國將在2016年兩次下調基準利率。這種寬鬆政策，再加上資本外流（今年11月飆升至1130億美元的月度創紀錄水平），可能會加劇明年人民幣對美元的貶值壓力。如果這種情況發生，歷史表明，一場以亞洲爲核心的匯率戰很有可能打響。
For these reasons, policymakers, executives and investors should guard against reading this week’s initial reaction to the Fed’s hike as a long-term trend. If the Fed maintains its tightening course, emerging markets could be laid low by a receding tide of money.
出於這些原因，政策制定者、企業高管和投資者應當小心，不要將本週市場對美聯儲加息的初步反應解讀爲長期趨勢。如果美聯儲繼續保持收緊路線，新興市場可能會因資金大潮的退去而受到重創。
