雙語財經新聞 第10期:懂經濟的索馬里海盜
As Somali pirates become ever more audacious1, they are regularly portrayed in the press as vicious aggressors, taking innocent people hostage, only to auction them off at vast ransoms2. There is much truth in that: on Thursday one pirate band hijacked a U.S.-bound oil tanker even asit emerged that another had killed two Filipino crewmen in late January after a botched rescue mission. But there is another way to assess these buccaneers3: as businessmen, who have smartly figured out the way trade is flowing, and how to get their share.
The booming piracy industry is a neat metaphor for our globalised economy. Just about everything you need to know about how money is made and lost is encapsulated4 in the daily battles between cargo captains and the pirate skiffs in the Somali basin.
“海盜業”的繁榮是對全球化經濟的一個生動隱喻。在索馬里海盆,貨輪船長和 海盜的小艇每天上演的戰鬥，濃縮了所有關於如何賺到金錢，又如何損失金錢的事 情。For starters, know your customer. One of the keys to understanding the modern multinational is to realise it hates embarrassment. Bear in mind that when faced with any challenge, whether from a lobby group, government or nerdy teenager on Twitter, its instinctive response is to crumple. Then imagine what it will do when confronted with poor people with guns: give in without a fight. Sure enough, most shipping companies don’t even allow their guards to bear weapons. It is not the kind of thing Human Resources wants to get involved in. All the pirates have to do is take a ship, steer it to harbour, then ask for a few million dollars for its return. So long as they don’t hurt anyone and usually they have understood that a modern multinational will always pay up, to make the problem go away.
首先，要了解客戶。瞭解現代跨國公司的關鍵點是要明白他們不喜歡難堪。要 記住,當面臨任何挑戰時,無論是面對遊說團體、政府還是Twitter上的某個小宅男， 他們的本能反應都是屈服o再設想一下他們面對端着槍的窮人時會怎麼做:不戰而 降。當然，多數航運公司甚至不允許他們的保安攜帶武器,那可不是人力資源部門 願意涉足的事。海盜們需要做的只是劫一艘船，開回港口，放出話來說收到數百萬 美元的贖金後才放行。只要不傷害任何人,他們通常不會傷害人，他們明白一家現 代跨國公司總是願意爲了息事寧人而掏錢的。
Second, as the economy changes, stay flexible and be ready to reinvent yourself. Somalia was not always a hotbed of piracy. Its main industryin the Puntland region where the pirates have their hub，was fishing. After the government collapsed, however, its territorial waters could not be enforced, and other fleets came and stole the stock. But, as the saying has it, there are always other fish in the sea. At the same time, the mighty Chinese export machine was cranking into action, sending quantities of material to Europe. The most economical route was up through the Suez Canal, which meant that PuntlancTs ex-fishermen had billions of dollars of stuff sailing right past them. All they needed to do was ask for a fraction of that what bond traders would call a quarter of a basis point. And, hey presto, they’d become toll collectors rather than fishermen.
其次，隨着經濟的變化，保持靈活，隨時準備轉型。索馬里並非一直是海盜的溫 牀,在海盜集中的邦特蘭地區，漁業曾是支柱產業。然而政府垮臺後，由於無法保護 其領海,別國船隻進人其領海,盜捕漁業資源。但是，正如一句老話所說，海里總有 別的魚。同一時期，中國強大的出口機器開始運轉,將大量物資運往歐洲。最經濟的航路是通過蘇伊士運河，這就意味着鉅額貨物在 邦特蘭的前漁民們面前經過。他們需要做的只是 從中索取極小的一部分，也就是債券交易者所說 的四分之一個基點。於是這些漁民搖身一變，當 上了收費員。Three, equip yourself with the right kit. You never want to let your IT department get behind the curve. Piracy is, just like everything, fundamentally an information business. You are not going to get much of a ransom for a ship full of wheat or cement. What you want is a boatload of snazzy5 Samsung 3D TVs, or, even better, iPhones. Fortunately, ships are now fitted with the Automatic Identification System, a computer system that logs details of every ship, its crew and cargo. It is great for customs, and ship management: unfortunately, the pirates are smart enough to hack into it. They know precisely which vessels are worth targeting. When that fails, they use spotters in Dubai and Oman to make note of valuable boats. As anyone in the City of London will tell you, the only trades worth doing are the inside ones. The pirates have learnt that lesson.
第三，用精良的工具裝備自己。千萬不要讓 IT部門落後於潮流。海盜像其他行業一樣,從根 本上說是一種信息業務。要是挾持了一船小麥或 水泥，恐怕敲詐不到多少贖金。最好挾持的是一 船時髦的三星3D電視，要是一船iPhone就更好 了。幸運的是，如今船舶上都裝配了船舶自動識別系統，這種電腦系統記錄下每艘船以及船上船員和貨物的詳細數據。這對海關和 船舶管理者無疑很有幫助，但不幸的是，精明的海盜也能侵入其中。他們清楚地知 道哪些船值得下手。如果黑客入侵失敗,他們還能讓守候在迪拜和阿曼的“偵察員” 摸清哪些船舶值得下手。倫敦金融城的任何內行都會告訴你，只有內幕交易才值得 做。海盜們早已領悟了這一點。Four, pay the staff right. The economics of a hit are as precisely tabulated6 as a McKinsey tlme-and-motion study. Each attack costs about $6,000. An investor puts up the capital in return for a third of the takings： London’s private equity houses would probably drive a harder bargain,but would recognise the structure of the deal. The money is used for the information, the skiff, the guns, and the khat, a powerful narcotic the pirates chew constantly. Remaining profits are split equally between the men. The youngest member of the attack force, usually about 14, will scale the ship first a dangerous job, with the highest probability of getting killed but will get 30 per cent extra. Get some gung-ho youngsters, andalJow them to take huge if potentially lethal risks, with the promise of a vast bonus if by some miracle they get out alive? There probably isn，t a director of an investment bank who wouldn’t recognise the business model.
第四，合理支付員工。一次海盜襲擊的經濟學數據,就好比麥肯錫的一項動作 和時間研究,有條有理。每次海盜襲擊的成本大約爲6000美元。投資者提供資本,以 換取三分之一的贖金。倫敦的私募股權基金大概會要求更高的回報,但對這種交易 結構也能認可。這筆錢用於支付信息、快艇、槍支，以及海盜們經常在嚼的強力麻醉 品——阿拉伯茶。剩下的利潤由所有海盜平分，“突擊隊”裏最年輕的隊員往往只有 14歲，他們會首先魏。這針危險的任務,被殺死的概率最大，但能多拿30%的分 成。找一些敢於衝鋒陷陣的年輕人，讓他們承擔可能致命的巨大風險，承諾如果他 們奇蹟般地活着回來就能得到鉅額分紅。投資銀行的老總們恐怕都很熟悉這種商 業模式。Finally, if nothing else, the pirates，success shows that trickle-down economics does work eventually. Parts of Somalia are growing rich on the “tolls” their seafarers collect from cargo ships steaming between Asia and Europe. It’s just that sometimes you need a few AK -47s to make sure some of the wealth trickles down to you.
最後，至少可以說，海盜的成功顯示了向下滴流經濟學最終的確是有效的。索 馬裏的一些地區靠海盜們從來往於亞洲和歐洲之間的貨輪上敲詐的“通行費”得以 脫貧致富。只是有時候要有幾支AK~47突擊步槍，才能保證這些財富能“滴”到你兜 裏。
