雙語財經新聞 第36期:下一個世界工廠(1)
Ask any cab driver in Beijing, and they can tell you without hesitation what ails their country: China just has too many people, they will say with a sigh.
But economists disagree, and as the population reaches a turning point — the number of entrants to the workforce may peak this year the country is set for a difficult adjustment, with growing labour market pressures bearing on the workshop of the world.
但經濟學家們卻不同意這種觀點。而且，隨着中國人口總數達到拐點(新增勞 動力數量可能於今年見頂），這個世界工廠的勞動力市場將日益趨緊，中國勢必將 面臨一個艱難的調整。That is a transition that China’s neighbour, India set to overtake it as the world’s most populous3 nation in 2025 hopes to capitalise on, as entrants to its labour market will rise annually for the next 14 years.
面對這一轉變，中國的鄰邦印度希望自己能夠從中獲益。印度將在2025年超過 中國，成爲世界上人口最多的國家。今後的14年，印度的新增勞動力數量每年都將 增長。
But many analysts are questioning whether India with its overstretched, underdeveloped infrastructure and its poorly educated youth really has the capacity to take up the slack.
但考慮到該國欠發達、超負荷運轉的基礎設施，以及受教育程度較低的年輕 人,許多分析人士懷疑,印度是否真的有能力填補勞動力市場的缺口。“In all likelihood, India will not be able to benefit from this reduction in the growth of China’s labour force, simply because India is not ready to have a manufacturing sector as large as China’s,” says Laveesh Bhandari, founding director of Indicus Analytics, the New Delhi — based economics research house. “Infrastructure is limited and too expensive, and the human capital base is not deep enough.w
新德里經濟研究機構Indicus Analytics的創始董事拉維什?班達裏表示：“印度 十有八九無法從中國勞動力增長減緩中受益，這不過是因爲，印度還沒有爲建立像 中國那樣龐大的製造業做好準備。這裏的基礎設施有限且過於昂貴，人力資本基礎 也不夠雄厚。”China, where the total workforce is due to start falling by about 2016, is already showing symptoms of a tightening labour market, with the country rocked this summer by a spate of labour disputes and strikes, by staff demanding higher wages.
到2016年左右，中國的勞動力總數將開始下降。中國目前巳顯現出勞動力市場 日益趨緊的徵兆。今年夏季，要求加薪的工人們造成了一連串勞資糾紛和罷工事 件，震撼了中國各地。The unrest has fuelled debate about whether China has reached its “Lewis turning point”，named after Nobel laureate Arthur Lewis, who theorised that a developing economy’s wages will rise sharply once labour demand from industry has exhausted available surplus4 labour from the agricultural sector.
這些動盪促使人們就中國是否已進人“劉易斯拐點”展開了爭論。這一概念是以諾貝爾經濟學獎得主阿瑟?劉易斯名字命名的，他認爲,一旦某個發展中經濟體 的工業部門的勞動力需求徹底消化掉來自農業部門的剩餘勞動力供應，該經濟體 的工資水平就將大幅上升。Some economists believe that China reached this tipping point in 2004, when manufacturers in the Pearl River Delta reported labour shortages although pressures eased temporarily during the global financial crisis when demand for Chinese exports fell.
一些經濟學家認爲,中國在2004年就已進入這個拐點，當時珠江三角洲的製造 業企業出現了勞動力短缺現象——儘管在全球金融危機期間，當外界對中國出口 的需求下滑之時,短缺壓力暫時得到了緩解。But this year, the manufacturing hubs of Guangzhou and Dongguan have both raised their minimum wages, and many companies are expanding leisure activities and improving food at their factory compounds in order to boost worker retention.
但今年,廣州和東莞這兩個製造業中心都上調了最低工資;許多企業則在工業 園區內增加休閒活動、改善伙食,以降低工人流失率。Companies such as Foxconn, the electronics maker, have also begun moving inland closer to the areas where their workers hail from hoping to make it easier to gain new recruits, and thereby forcing local factories to raise their wages to compete.
此外，電子產品製造商富士康等企業還着手向內陸地區遷移，靠近勞動力的來 源地，希望藉此能夠更容易招到人。這進而又迫使當地工廠提髙工資水平,以應對 競爭。“The consensus is that China is probably approaching the Lewis turning point soon, based on recent developments in population growth and also the one-child policy,” says Jiang Tingsong, senior economist at the Centre for International Economics in Australia.
澳大利亞國際經濟中心髙級經濟學家蔣庭鬆表示：“人們一致認爲，中國可能 很快就將進入劉易斯拐點。這一共識基於人口增長的新動向以及獨生子女政策。”
