美國公司爲何把多餘現金存入銀行
When US Federal Reserve officials meet in September to decide whether to raise interest rates, they will have a plethora of economic data to ponder. But if they want to get a novel twist on the current state of finance, they should take a glance at the balance sheets of American companies.
當美聯儲(Fed)官員9月開會決定是否加息時，他們需要考慮大量經濟數據。然而，如果他們希望對當前的金融狀況有一個新穎的見解，他們應當看一看美國公司的資產負債表。
For these days, it seems that a subtle — and largely unnoticed — shift is under way in how American companies are placing their spare funds. And, like so much in western finance today, it is a trend that is partly driven by some unexpected side effects of a low interest rate world.
因爲如今美國企業存放多餘現金的方式似乎發生了微妙（且基本沒有引起注意）的變化。而且就像西方金融業目前的很多趨勢一樣，這在一定程度上是由低利率世界的一些意外副作用驅動的。
To understand this, take a look at a survey recently released by the Association of Financial Professionals on the behaviour of corporate treasurers. This analysis starts by highlighting a point that is well known: namely that holdings of corporate cash have recently swelled, because company profits have surged, but investment has remained relatively low.
要了解這點，看看美國財務管理專業人士協會(Association of Financial Professionals)最近公佈的一份有關公司財務主管行爲的調查吧。這一分析首先強調了人們熟知的一點：即近年公司的現金持有量增加，因爲公司利潤飆升，但投資仍相對低迷。
The AFP reports, for example, that 31 per cent of treasurers said that their cash balances rose last year, while 46 per cent reported that they were unchanged, and most treasurers expect this pattern to continue. Little wonder, then, that economists estimate that there is between $1tn and $2tn of unused firepower now sitting on corporate balance sheets.
例如，該協會稱，31%的公司財務主管表示，他們去年的現金餘額增加，而46%的財務主管稱，現金餘額沒有變動，多數公司財務主管預測，這一趨勢將持續。不足爲奇的是，經濟學家們估計，現在公司資產負債表上的未使用現金規模爲1萬億至2萬億美元之間。
But what is most interesting is a detail that is normally hidden from view: namely what treasurers say they are doing with this money mountain. Until recently, when treasurers were blessed with spare funds, they tended to store these in the capital markets.
然而，最有趣的是一個通常被人忽視的細節：即財務主管們對這些鉅額資金的處置方式。直到不久以前，當財務主管們得到多餘現金時，他們往往會投資於資本市場。
The AFP says, for example, that in 2008 treasurers were placing about half of their short-term money in money market funds, treasury bills and other securities; one-fifth was sitting in vanilla bank deposits. That makes sense: in the early years of the 21st century it was taken for granted that finance was evolving towards a world where the capital markets ruled. Sticking money into bank deposits seemed an old-fashioned thing to do.
例如，該協會稱，2008年時，公司財務主管將約一半的短期資金投向貨幣市場基金、美國國債以及其他證券；五分之一存入普通銀行存款賬戶。這是合理之舉：21世紀初，人們想當然地認爲，金融正朝着資本市場主宰一切的方向發展。把現金存入銀行似乎是一種過時的做法。
But today that evolution has gone into reverse: at present some 56 per cent of American corporate cash is sitting in bank deposit accounts, the highest proportion since the AFP started its survey 10 years ago. Money market funds, by contrast, now hold a mere 15 per cent of short-term corporate funds.
然而，如今的方向似乎發生了逆轉：目前，約56%的美國公司現金存放於銀行存款賬戶，爲該協會10年前開始調查以來最高比例。相比之下，貨幣市場基金現在僅持有15%的公司短期資金。
In some senses, this is surprising. Never mind the fact that bank accounts seem retro; what is more notable is that they are not entirely “safe”, since Federal deposit insurance only covers part of these deposits. And bank accounts today pay virtually no interest; some even charge for storing cash.
從某種意義上看，這令人意外。且不提銀行賬戶顯得過時這一點；更引人注目的是，銀行賬戶並不完全“安全”，因爲聯邦存款保險只涵蓋部分存款。而且銀行賬戶的利率目前幾乎爲零；一些甚至對存款收費。
But it seems that treasurers have been quietly shifting their funds for three reasons. First (and thankfully), they now have more trust in the health of American banks. Second (and less positively), they are becoming worried about the regulatory environment around the capital markets. Most notably, with the forthcoming Securities and Exchanges Commission reforms to the money market world, corporate treasurers are quietly withdrawing from some of these funds.
但公司財務主管悄悄轉移資金似乎出於3個原因。首先（值得慶幸），他們現在對美國各銀行的健康狀況更有信心。其次（不那麼正面），他們對整個資本市場的監管環境感到擔憂。最引人注目的是，隨着美國證交會(SEC)即將對貨幣市場實施改革，公司財務主管正悄悄撤出一部分貨幣市場基金。
The third factor is that, in a world of ultra low rates, it has been so hard for treasurers to get any returns from capital market instruments that many have given up even trying. Money is being stashed in retro bank accounts because nobody can think of anything better to do. It is a form of zombie finance.
第三個原因是，在超低利率環境下，公司財務主管從資本市場工具中獲得回報的難度非常大，以至於很多財務主管已經連試都不試。現金正被存入過時的銀行賬戶，因爲沒有人想得出更好的辦法。這是一種殭屍金融。
Now, the treasurers are certainly not alone in this stance: many retail investors are doing the same. The US Trust, to name one example, recently reported that two-thirds of wealthy individuals hold more than 10 per cent of their assets in cash, an unusually high .
公司財務主管肯定不是唯一持這種立場的人：很多散戶投資者也在這麼做。舉個例子，美國信託(US Trust)最近報告，有三分之二的富有個人持有的現金超過總資產的10%，這一比例高得異乎尋常。
If you want to be optimistic, it is possible to think — or hope — that this pattern will soon come to an end. If the US economy keeps posting a recovery, companies may start investing their spare cash in plant and equipment — or even people. Similarly, if the US Fed raises interest rates this autumn, treasurers may start to believe that it makes sense for them to store their money in the capital markets, which will almost certainly produce better returns before those retro bank accounts.
如果你希望樂觀點的話，那麼你可以認爲（或者希望）這種模式將很快結束。如果美國經濟持續復甦，公司可能會開始將多餘現金投資於廠房設備，甚至員工。同樣，如果美聯儲今年秋季加息，公司財務主管可能會開始認爲，將資金存入貨幣市場是合理之舉，這幾乎肯定會帶來比銀行賬戶更高的回報。
But until then, American companies are living in a financial system that seems calm on the surface, if not almost normal — but is nevertheless distorted in subtle, hard-to-see ways. It is little wonder, then, that so many Fed officials are keen to “normalise” the price of money again. Better just hope they can do this in a way that does not cause too many shocks to the banks, let alone to those half-hidden corporate treasurers.
然而，在此之前，美國公司所處的金融體系表面看來一派寧靜，甚至近乎正常，但卻以微妙而很難看到的方式被扭曲。因此那麼多美聯儲官員希望使資金價格迴歸“正常化”也就不足爲奇了。但願他們這麼做時不會對銀行造成太多衝擊，更別提那些躲在幕後的公司財務主管了。
