市場押注美國利率仍將保持低位

Bond investors are betting that US interest rates will remain near historic lows following mixed signals from the Federal Reserve, highlighting a persistent gulf in expectations between the central bank and markets.

債券投資者押注美國利率將保持在接近歷史低點的水平，此前美聯儲(Federal Reserve)本週會議釋放出的混合信號突顯了該央行與市場預期之間持續存在的差距。

A day after the Fed dropped its pledge to be “patient” over lifting rates, traders were betting that its key interest rate would be just 1.80 per cent by the end of 2017. Market rates rose yesterday but investors’ forecasts are still well below the Fed’s own projections.

美聯儲摒棄對加息保持“耐心”承諾後的第二天，交易員們押注到2017年底美聯儲關鍵利率將只有1.8%。昨日市場利率上漲，但是投資者的預期仍然遠低於美聯儲的預測。

Tad Rivelle, chief investment officer for fixed income at TCW, said that the Fed was giving out conflicting messages on rates, describing its signalling as similar to a “Michael Jackson moonwalk”.

TCW固定收益產品首席投資官塔德•裏韋爾(Tad Revelle)稱，美聯儲在利率方面發出了相互矛盾的信息，形容它釋放的信號類似於“邁克爾•傑克遜(Michael Jackson moonwalk)的月球舞步”。

“It looks like you are going one way but in fact you are moving in the other direction,” he said.

“看上去你在走向一個方向，但事實上你正向另一個方向前進，”他稱。

Janet Yellen, the Fed chairwoman, said on Wednesday that the majority of members of the Federal Open Market Committee were expecting rates to rise this year amid “considerable underlying strength” in the economy.

美聯儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)週三表示，在美國經濟存在“相當大的根本層面力量”的大背景下，聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)的多數成員預計今年將上調利率。

However, a series of reductions in the Fed’s interest-rate projections alongside forecasts of weaker growth and inflation prompted traders to conclude that the central bank was taking a more cautious view of the economy — even as it opened up its options on rates.

然而，美聯儲的利率預測一再下調，加上更疲軟的增長和通脹預期，促使交易員們得出結論認爲，該央行對經濟採取了比較謹慎的觀點——即便其將加息選項納入考慮範圍。

That suggested a move in June was now less likely and traders were betting that by the end of the year the funds rate would be about 0.50 per cent, representing a 0.25 percentage point tightening.

這似乎表明，現在看來6月加息的可能性降低了，交易員們押注到今年底聯邦基金利率將在0.50%左右，相當於收緊0.25個百分點。

The interplay between currencies and central bank policy has anchored US bond yields at low levels, bolstering market expectations that the pace of the next tightening cycle will be modest.

匯率和央行政策之間的相互作用使美國國債收益率固定在低位，支撐了市場對於下一個政策收緊週期的步伐將比較溫和的預期。

Investors yesterday seized on the Fed’s decision to lower its estimate of the longer-term rate of unemployment to 5-5.2 per cent, suggesting that the US jobs market may have more slack than previously believed and allowing the FOMC to keep rates lower for longer.

昨天，投資者抓住美聯儲將長期失業率下調至5%至5.2%的決定，提出美國就業市場可能比之前所認爲的更加低迷，使FOMC能夠在更長時間內保持較低利率。

Ms Yellen also highlighted the impact of the soaring dollar on the Fed’s assessment of export growth and inflation. While the dollar reflected the US economy’s strength, it would also act as a “notable drag” on net exports this year, she said, adding that it was pulling down import prices, pointing to low inflation for longer. The dollar had retraced most of its losses in the wake of the FOMC meeting, and was up 0.8 per cent against a basket of rivals late yesterday.

耶倫還強調了美元飆升給美聯儲對出口增長和通脹的評估所帶來的影響。她稱，儘管美元反映了美國的經濟實力，但它也會對今年的淨出口形成“明顯阻力”。她還表示，美元走強正在拉低進口價格，意味着低通脹將維持更長時間。在FOMC會議後，美元收復大部分失地，昨日晚些時候對一籃子貨幣的匯率上漲0.8%。

Alan Ruskin, strategist at Deutsche Bank said: “From a pure financial standpoint, the dollar’s strength has reached a magnitude that represents a drag on the economy.”

德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)策略師艾倫•拉斯金(Alan Ruskin)稱，“單純從金融的角度來看，美元強勢已經達到拖累經濟的程度。”

Ms Yellen presides over a committee divided about when to lift rates: a day after her press conference, the Chicago Federal Reserve warned that the Fed risked triggering adverse shocks by raising rates too soon.

耶倫主持的委員會在何時加息的問題上意見分歧：在她舉行記者會後的次日，芝加哥聯儲(Chicago Federal Reserve)警告稱，美聯儲過早加息可能引發負面衝擊。