比特幣光環退色 風光難再續

Cryptocurrencies stormed into the public consciousness in November 2013 when the price of just one bitcoin broke through the $1,200 level.

2013年11月，1比特幣的價格突破了1200美元，加密貨幣就此闖入公衆視野。

The activists promoting the new breed of people-issued money claimed it would replace inflationary central-bank currency, enabling consumers to bypass the high commission charges and regulatory restrictions of traditional banks.

推廣這種個人發行新幣種的倡議者聲稱，比特幣將取代存在通脹性的央行貨幣，讓消費者可以繞開傳統銀行業高昂的手續費和監管限制。

“It gives everyone in the world access to finance and the ability to transact with each other,” says Chris Ellis, one of the early supporters who always believed bitcoin’s potential was in democratising finance for millions of unbanked people. “The only barrier to entry is the use of a network-enabled digital device like a smartphone or a computer. “

“比特幣爲世界上每一個人都提供了一條金融渠道，使他們能夠彼此交易，”比特幣早期支持者之一克里斯•埃利斯(Chris Ellis)稱，“唯一的進入門檻是要使用能聯網的數字化設備，比如智能手機或電腦。”他當時一直相信比特幣的潛力在於爲數百萬沒有享受銀行服務的人進行金融民主化。

But one year on, and despite growing popularity with retailers such as Expedia, Overstock and IBM, an FT look into digital currencies as part of the “Democratising Finance” series shows that things have not turned out as the community intended.

一年過去了，儘管比特幣在Expedia、Overstock和IBM等零售商的人氣日益高漲，但英國《金融時報》“金融民主化”系列報道中對數字貨幣的一項調查顯示，事情並未按照比特幣界人士預期的方向發展。

Bitcoin prices have collapsed in recent months. For most of January they traded below $250, incurring heavy losses for those who bought in at more frothy levels and challenging the profitability of the businesses involved.

最近幾個月，比特幣價格暴跌。在1月的多數時間內，比特幣的交易價格低於250美元，使以更大泡沫價格水平購入的投資者蒙受沉重損失，對相關商家的盈利性構成挑戰。

Message boards once filled with enthusiasts now feature critical voices that question the system’s long-term viability and structure.

曾擠滿比特幣熱衷者的交流論壇如今充斥着批評的聲音，質疑比特幣系統的長期可行性及其架構。

Bitcoin was the brainchild of the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto presumed today to be the nom de plume of a group of secretive cryptologists.

比特幣是中本聰(Satoshi Nakamoto)的智慧傑作，如今這個名字被認爲是一羣神祕密碼學專家的筆名。

It was supposed to provide a way to sidestep third parties — banks and other foreign exchange providers — and create an alternative system that could essentially be run by users themselves.

比特幣的發明，原本是爲了提供一條途徑以避開第三方機構——銀行及其他外匯供應商——並創造一個本質上可以讓用戶自己運營的替代性金融系統。

But its anonymity gained it a reputation as the currency of choice for drug dealers and money launderers, while its volatility brought it to the attention of speculators.

但是，比特幣系統的匿名性爲其帶來了毒品交易商或洗錢者首選貨幣的名聲，同時該貨幣的波動性吸引了投機商的注意。

Gradually companies are starting to accept bitcoin but its use is limited to a few global corporations and some local businesses keen to jump on a trend.

慢慢地企業開始接受比特幣，但其使用仍然侷限於少數迫不及待地追隨潮流的跨國公司和本土企業。

There are still concerns over whether mainstream adoption can ever happen in an environment where message-board commenters claim “consumer protection is non-existent” and where price volatility turns even a coffee purchase into an unpredictable expense.

不過，仍有人擔憂，在留言板評論者聲稱“消費者保護從不存在”、價格波動甚至會讓購買一杯咖啡都成爲一筆不可預測的花銷的環境下，主流市場接納比特幣的情形是否會發生。

The high-profile scandals of the past year have included the $620m collapse of the Tokyo-based currency exchange Mt Gox, the theft of $5m coins from Bitstamp, one of the key exchanges based in the UK, and several small-scale frauds, hacks and embezzlements that drain funds from users.

去年幾宗引人注目的醜聞包括，位於東京的比特幣交易所Mt Gox損失6.2億美元破產、英國重要的交易所之一Bitstamp價值500萬美元的比特幣被盜，以及幾起使用戶遭受損失的小規模欺詐、黑客攻擊和盜用案。

The bitcoin system processes about 100,000 transactions a day compared with Visa’s 150m. But only about 1 per cent of the bitcoin total represents actual buying and selling of goods and services, with the rest linked to spam, money laundering and double counting, according to Jeffrey Robinson, money laundering expert and author.

比特幣系統每天處理約10萬筆交易，與之相比，Visa每天處理1.5億筆交易。但是，洗錢專家及作家傑弗裏•羅賓遜(Jeffrey Robinson)表示，僅有1%的比特幣與實際購買或出售物品或服務相關，而其他比特幣則與垃圾郵件、洗錢和重複計算相關。

Most of all, the newly disillusioned bitcoin community is confused about how a system that was supposed to be decentralised and owned by no one has ended up being anything but.

最重要的是，剛剛幻想破滅的比特幣界仍困惑於，爲何一個本應去中心化且不被任何人擁有的系統，結果卻完全沒有做到這一點。

Tim Swanson, a consultant to the industry, says bitcoin is too complex to achieve that goal. Rather than eliminating the need for third-party agents, he says it has spawned a whole industry of people needed to process it.

該行業的顧問蒂姆•斯旺森(Tim Swanson)稱，比特幣太複雜，難以達成這一目標。他稱，它沒有消除對第三方代理的需求，反倒是催生了一整個行業的人，這些人是處理比特幣所必需的。

“If you introduce third parties it defies the point . . . All it does is create an extra cost,” he says. “You just end up replicating the old system, but without the features that provide functionality for customer service.”

“如果你引入第三方，其意義便落空了……它所做的只是產生額外成本，”他稱，“你最終也只是複製了舊系統，但卻沒有爲客戶服務提供功能性的特點。”

Bitcoin fees for users are low. But they are in effect subsidised by speculative buyers. If prices fall, Mr Swanson warns that fees will rise, making it less competitive versus traditional payment methods. He estimates that the true cost of each bitcoin transaction is $15-$20.

比特幣對用戶的收費低廉。但是它們實際上是得到了投機性買家的補貼。如果價格下跌，斯旺森警告稱，費用將上漲，使比特幣與傳統支付方式相比競爭性降低。他估計，每筆比特幣交易的實際費用在15-20美元之間。

The smart money, according to one developer of a rival system, was never invested in bitcoin directly but in the supporting infrastructure. These businesses could one day be redeployed to new and improved cryptocurrency systems or even to traditional currencies.

據一種競爭性系統的一名開發者稱，內行的資金從來沒有直接投資比特幣，而是用於支持配套設施。這些業務有一天可以用於全新的、改進過的加密貨幣系統上，甚至是用在傳統貨幣上。

Meanwhile, a growing number of bitcoin intermediaries are moving to work within the established financial market.

與此同時，越來越多的比特幣中介正在轉向成熟的金融市場。

Coinbase, the San Francisco-based start-up that lets people store, send and accept payment in bitcoins, has launched its own US dollar wallet service and broke records in January when it raised $75m from investors including the New York Stock Exchange and several banks.

位於舊金山的初創公司Coinbase允許用戶儲存和收付比特幣，它推出了自己的美元錢包服務，並於1月從紐約證交所(NYSE)和一些銀行等投資者籌得7500萬美元，打破了比特幣公司的融資紀錄。

The presence of traditional financial services companies and figures was interpreted as an indicator of growing investor interest in mainstream applications of the digital currency.

外界將這筆融資中傳統金融服務公司和大人物的加入，解讀爲表明投資者對主流市場採用這種數字化貨幣的興趣日益增加。

But some banks worry the technology could become too expensive, especially if speculative flows are removed or the cost of regulation is factored in.

但是，一些銀行擔心，這種技術會變得太過昂貴，特別是在投機資金退出或把監管成本考慮在內的情況下。

Richard Brown, executive architect for banking industry innovation at IBM, says: “There are lots of claims made for this technology, many of which don’t stand up to scrutiny.”

IBM銀行業創新執行設計師理查德•布朗(Richard Brown)稱：“這項技術中有許多斷言，但其中很多都經不起推敲。”