Core inflation in Japan fell further last month to just 0.5 per cent year-on-year, as plunging oil prices offset the effects of growing domestic economic activity and massive monetary loosening. The sluggish rise in underlying prices, the lowest in 18 months, comes as some economists are ratcheting their forecasts still lower. Barclays economists are looking at an increase of 0.3 per cent for this month and, depending on oil prices, reckon a slide back into deflation from May “is now more likely”. The deceleration came in spite of a 1 per cent rise in industrial production on the previous month, suggesting Japan is shaking off last year’s technical recession, and a fall in the unemployment rate to 3.4 per cent — the lowest since the 1990s. It highlights the fundamental tension in Japan’s economy after the aggressive stimulus programme of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe: activity is picking up, but it is still not resulting in upward pressure on prices. The numbers suggest the Bank of Japan will struggle to hit its inflation forecast of 1 per cent for the year to March 2016. That threatens the BoJ’s credibility, but does not mean Abenomics has failed — when the economy runs out of unemployed workers and idle factories, inflation should pick up, say analysts. Consumer prices excluding fresh food, the BoJ’s preferred measure, rose by 2.5 per cent on a year earlier in December compared with 2.7 per cent in November. Stripping out roughly 2 percentage points because of last year’s consumption tax increase gives a core figure of 0.5 per cent. 因油價下挫抵消了國內經濟活動升溫以及大規模貨幣寬鬆政策的影響，去年12月，日本核心通脹率同比下跌至0.5%。 就在日本核心通脹率達到18個月最低並增長乏力之際，經濟學家們也正在調降其預測。巴克萊(Barclays)經濟學家預測本月通脹率將達到0.3%，他們基於油價走勢判斷，日本“目前更有可能”從5月起迴歸通縮。 與此同時，去年12月日本工業產出增長1%，表明日本正擺脫去年的技術性衰退，失業率降至3.4%，爲上世紀90年代以來最低。 這突顯出，在日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)推出大規模刺激計劃後日本經濟的根本緊張狀況：經濟活動在升溫，但仍沒有給物價帶來上行壓力。 上述數據表明，日本央行(Bank of Japan)將很難實現一年內通脹率達到1%的預期，一年的截止日期爲2016年3月。這將危及日本央行的可信性，但並不意味着安倍經濟學已失敗，分析人士表示，當不再有員工失業和工廠閒置，通脹應會上升。 去年12月，日本央行青睞的指標——除去生鮮食品以外的消費者物價同比上漲2.5%，11月漲幅則爲2.7%。在剔除因去年消費稅上調所帶來的大約2個百分點的漲幅後，核心通脹率爲0.5%。
