歐洲央行應堅持啓動量寬

These are exciting times in European central banking. Last Thursday the Swiss National Bank suddenly terminated its successful peg to the euro. This week the European Central Bank is expected to announce its programme of quantitative easing. The SNB has embraced the risk of deflation from which the ECB wishes to escape.

歐洲的中央銀行業迎來了激動人心的時刻。上週四瑞士央行(Swiss National Bank)突然取消了瑞士法郎兌歐元匯率上限這一成功的政策。本週歐洲央行(ECB)預計將宣佈量化寬鬆計劃。瑞士央行已經接受了歐洲央行希望逃脫的通縮風險。

The SNB’s decision was motivated, at least in part, by aversion to being caught up in the ECB’s QE programme. For Mario Draghi, the ECB president, the SNB’s decision is even helpful, since it weakens the euro. For many in northern Europe, however, the Swiss decision will be painful. It will remind them that they no longer enjoy the pleasures (and pains) of a strong currency. The Swiss can readily stop shadowing the euro; the Germans have been imprisoned in it.

瑞士央行作此決定的動機，至少有一部分是因爲不願被捲入歐洲央行的量化寬鬆政策。對於歐洲央行行長馬里奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)來說，瑞士央行這一決定其實更有幫助，因爲它會削弱歐元。然而對於許多北歐人來說，瑞士的決定將爲他們帶來痛苦。他們將需要謹記自己不再享受強勢貨幣帶來的愉悅（以及痛苦）。瑞士可以隨時停止追隨歐元，而德國已深陷歐元的囹圄之中。

The surprise decision created turmoil. By January 20, the Swiss franc had appreciated by 18 per cent against the euro, the currency of its principal trading partner. With core inflation near zero, deflation in Switzerland seems inevitable. So does a recession.

這一令人震驚的決定引起了市場動盪。到1月20日，瑞郎對歐元已經升值了18%，而歐元是瑞士主要貿易伙伴使用的貨幣。由於瑞士的核心通脹接近於零，瑞士發生通縮似乎已不可避免。還有一個不可避免的，是瑞士的經濟衰退。

Why end a policy that had delivered such enviable stability? The obvious answer is that the SNB feared huge inflation if it remained pegged to the euro, particularly after QE began — and bigger losses on foreign currency assets the later the peg was dropped. Neither fear is compelling, as Willem Buiter, Citigroup chief economist, argues. It is possible to hold down the value of a currency one creates oneself forever. It is true that the SNB’s balance sheet is already large, at about 85 per cent of gross domestic product. But it had stabilised, and as Mr Buiter notes: “There is no technical limit on the size of the central bank’s balance sheet, in absolute terms or relative to GDP.”

瑞士央行的匯率上限政策已經實現了令人羨慕的穩定，爲什麼要結束呢？顯而易見的答案是，瑞士央行擔心如果仍保持瑞郎兌歐元匯率上限，可能會導致高通脹，尤其是量化寬鬆啓動以後，它還擔心越晚取消匯率上限，外匯資產損失越大。花旗集團(Citigroup)首席經濟學家威廉姆•比特(Willem Buiter)認爲，這兩種擔憂都缺乏說服力。一種貨幣永遠可以隨時壓低自己設置的匯率。的確，瑞士央行的資產負債表規模已經非常大，大約相當於國內生產總值(GDP)的85%。但它已經穩定下來，而且比特指出：“從技術層面而言，無論是絕對規模，還是與GDP相比的相對規模，央行的資產負債表都不存在限制。”

Furthermore, the Swiss could have curbed inflationary dangers without abandoning the peg, for instance by increasing reserve requirements on banks. A sovereign wealth fund could have been set up to manage huge holdings of foreign assets.

而且瑞士原本無須放棄匯率上限就能遏制通脹危險，比如提高銀行存款準備金率，或者可以建立一個主權財富基金來管理所持有的鉅額外匯資產。

Even if a peg to the euro was no longer thought to be desirable, it could have been given up without going cold turkey. The government could instead have pegged the franc to a basket of currencies, which would have anchored its purchasing power while allowing it to move more freely against the euro.

即便瑞士央行認爲兌歐元匯率上限不再可取，也不必突然徹底放棄。瑞士政府本可以代之以瑞郎盯住一籃子貨幣，這樣在提高瑞郎兌歐元匯率自由度的同時，還穩定了其購買力。