年歐洲央行不會加大QE
Many economists doubt the European Central Bank will increase the size of its 1.46tn asset-purchase programme in 2016 despite assurances by ECB chief Mario Draghi that additional monetary stimulus is still on the table.
許多經濟學家認爲，歐洲央行(ECB)不會在2016年加大其1.46萬億歐元資產購買計劃的規模，儘管該行行長馬里奧德拉吉(Mario Draghi)保證額外的貨幣政策刺激仍是選項。
The predictions of no further action in an annual Financial Times poll of eurozone analysts came despite Mr Draghi’s attempts to convince markets that the ECB remained primed to act should inflation and growth across the single currency area continue to disappoint.
在英國《金融時報》的年度調查中，歐元區分析師作出了歐洲央行不會採取進一步行動的預言，儘管德拉吉試圖說服市場相信：只要整個單一貨幣區的通脹和經濟增長繼續令人失望，歐洲央行就將隨時準備採取行動。
In contrast to last year when the vast majority of economists expected the ECB to launch full-scale quantitative easing, just under half of the 33 respondents thought the ECB would do nothing this year. The rest said the ECB would expand QE or cut interest rates, although some of those who expected more easing stressed that the central bank was unlikely to radically reshape its existing policy response.
在去年的調查中，絕大多數經濟學家預期歐洲央行將發起全面量化寬鬆政策，而今年33個受訪者中有幾乎快一半的人認爲歐洲央行將按兵不動。其他人表示，歐洲央行將擴大量化寬鬆或下調利率，儘管在那些預期會有更多寬鬆措施的人中，一部分人強調這家央行不太可能從根本上重塑其現有的政策迴應。
Latest ECB projections predict the eurozone, which has struggled to grow as strongly as the US or UK, will grow 1.7 per cent in 2016 after hitting 1.5 per cent growth this year as QE bolsters the economy.
根據歐洲央行的最新預測，迄今難以實現像美國或英國那樣強勁增長的歐元區，2016年將增長1.7%。今年歐元區將實現1.5%的增長，得益於量化寬鬆支持經濟。
The ECB ended the year with a vote on December 3 to cut its deposit rate to minus 0.3 per cent and an expansion in asset purchases that leaves its quantitative easing programme at 1.46tn. The move came days before the US Federal Reserve increased interest rates for the first time since 2006, underlining the sharply divergent policies being pursued on either side of the Atlantic.
今年臨近尾聲之際，歐洲央行在12月3日投票削減其存款利率至負0.3%，並擴大資產購買，使量化寬鬆計劃的規模達到1.46萬億歐元。此舉出爐十幾天後，美聯儲(Federal Reserve)自2006年以來首次提高利率，突顯大西洋兩岸正在推行的貨幣政策截然不同。
But markets plunged following the ECB decision. Investors complained that the central bank had misled markets about the amount of extra stimulus it was prepared to inject to shore up the recovery.
但是，歐洲央行宣佈決定後市場暴跌。投資者抱怨稱，這家央行此前在其準備注入多少額外刺激以支撐復甦的問題上誤導了市場。
Mr Draghi hit back the day after the December vote, saying that there was no “limit” to what eurozone policymakers could do to return inflation to its target.
德拉吉在12月投票表決的次日作出回擊，稱歐元區政策制定者在動用政策工具推動通脹達標方面“是沒有限度的”。
However, the economists polled expect slightly higher growth rates and substantially higher inflation over 2016.
不過，接受調查的經濟學家們預期2016年期間將出現略高的增長率和顯著更高的通脹率。
When asked if the central bank would do more, Dario Perkins, chief European economist at Lombard Street Research, said: “I don’t think so, unless something goes wrong in the wider global economy.”
在被問及歐洲央行會不會採取更多行動時，朗伯德街研究(Lombard Street Research)首席歐洲經濟學家達里奧·鉑金斯(Dario Perkins)表示：“我不這麼認爲——除非全球整體經濟出了問題。”
