各項數據向好 美國經濟換擋加速

The American economy grew last quarter at its fastest rate in over a decade, providing the strongest evidence to date that the recovery is finally gaining sustained power more than five years after it began.

美國經濟上季度錄得了逾10年來的最高增速。這一數據爲經濟復甦在開始五年多之後終於獲得持續動力的說法提供了迄今爲止最爲有力的證據。

Bolstered by robust spending among consumers and businesses alike, economic output rose at an annual rate of 5 percent during the summer months, the Commerce Department said Tuesday, a sharp revision from its earlier estimate of 3.9 percent. The advance followed a second quarter where growth reached a rate of 4.6 percent after a decline last winter that was exacerbated by particularly harsh weather.

商務部週二宣佈，受到消費者和相關企業大幅支出的提振，美國經濟產出在夏季三個月份的年化增長率爲5%，較此前3.9%的估值有大幅的修正。此前，在去年冬天的極端惡劣天氣推動了經濟下滑之後，今年二季度的經濟增長達到了4.6%。

The revision was led by an upswing in investment by businesses, a powerful force for growth in most economic recoveries but one that has lagged in the latest rebound. Higher consumer spending, including increased outlays on health care, and a narrower trade balance also contributed to the summer improvement. The gain makes the third quarter the strongest since the summer of 2003.

推動這次修正的主要是企業投資的上揚。在經濟復甦的過程中，企業投資往往是增長的強大動力。然而在最近的這輪復甦中，該領域一直滯後。包括醫療保健等領域的消費者支出的加大，以及貿易逆差的收窄，也促成了今夏經濟增速的提高。這使得今年第三季度成爲2003年夏季以來美國經濟增長最爲強勁的季度。

The stronger data was greeted happily on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones industrial average closing above the 18,000 level for the first time. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index also hit a record high, while the Nasdaq dropped slightly.

強勁的數據讓華爾街歡欣鼓舞，道瓊斯工業平均指數(Dow Jones Industrial Average)首次收於18,000點的水平之上。更宏觀的標準普爾500指數(Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index)也達到創紀錄的高點，納斯達克指數(Nasdaq)則小幅下挫。

The Dow is now up 8.7 percent for the year, while the S.&P. 500 has risen 12.7 percent.

道指今年迄今爲止已上漲8.7%，與此同時，標普500指數上揚了12.7%。

Although the growth rate is expected to decelerate somewhat in the current fourth quarter, the improved view in the rearview mirror corresponds with other evidence suggesting that the economy is moving to a higher gear.

儘管在當前的四季度，經濟增幅預計將有所下滑，但對之前經濟數據的向上修正和其他一些證據均指向了同一個事實，即美國經濟正在換擋加速。

“The data today is very consistent with a U.S. consumer that is doing quite well,” said Michael Gapen, chief United States economist at Barclays. “Consumers are receiving a boost in the form of lower gas prices, but they are also feeling more confident about their own futures because of the stronger labor market.”

“今天公佈的數據與美國消費者相當不錯的表現是極爲相符的，”巴克萊(Barclays)的美國市場首席經濟師邁克爾·加彭(Michael Gapen)說。“消費者受到了較低的汽油價格的鼓舞，不過他們也因爲勞動力市場變得更爲強勁而對自己的未來更加有信心了。”

In a separate Commerce Department report Tuesday morning, the government stated that personal spending jumped 0.6 percent in November, slightly more than expected, while October’s increase was revised upward by 0.1 percentage point to 0.3 percent. Personal income jumped by 0.4 percent in November, the Commerce Department said, ahead of the 0.3 percent rise in October and the 0.2 percent increase in September.

在商務部週二上午發佈的另一份報告中，政府表示，11月份的個人支出增長了0.6%，略高於預期，與此同時，10月的增幅向上修正了0.1%，至0.3%。商務部還稱，11月份的個人收入升高了0.4%，超過了10月的0.3%和9月的0.2%的增幅。

Unemployment has been steadily falling, and payrolls grew by more than 300,000 last month, a reading that was significantly better than expected. Similarly, consumers have gotten a big boost recently from the steep drop in gas prices since the summer. That is expected to lift holiday retail sales this month.

失業率一直在穩步回落。上月的新增就業人口超過30萬，明顯好於預期。同樣，汽油價格自今夏以來大幅下跌，極大地提升了消費者的信心，並且預計還會拉動本月的假日零售額。

“Consumption growth appears to have accelerated further in Q4, with plunging gasoline prices shifting upside to more discretionary areas,” Ted Wieseman, an economist with Morgan Stanley, said in a note to clients after the revised figures on economic growth were released.

“隨着猛跌的汽油價格帶動更多可自由支配領域開支的上升，第四季度的消費增長看來會進一步加速，”在經過修正的經濟增長數據公佈後，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的經濟師特德·威斯曼(Ted Wieseman)在給客戶的報告中寫道。

The only negative indicator in Tuesday’s flood of economic data was a 0.7 percent drop in durable goods orders in November. But durable goods data, tracked by the Census Bureau, is often highly volatile on a month-to-month basis, and economists tend to put more weight on other factors like employment, consumer spending and income.

週二公佈的大批經濟數據中，唯一的消極指標是，11月份的耐用商品訂單量回落了0.7%。不過，由美國人口普查局(Census Bureau)追蹤的月度耐用商品數據，常會出現較大的環比變化，經濟學家們往往更看重就業、消費者支出和收入等因素。

The year’s final Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment, also released Tuesday morning, recorded a small decrease to 93.6 from a preliminary 93.8 report. That still left overall consumer expectations in the survey at their best levels since January 2007, a year before the last recession began.

同樣在週二上午，湯姆森路透/密歇根大學(Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan)最終版的年度消費者信心調查報告出爐。其中的數據，從初步報告中的93.8小幅下調至93.6。即便如此，調查中總的消費者預期依然處於2007年1月以來的最好水平，而那時是上一次衰退開始的前一年。

Despite signs of faster growth, the Federal Reserve remains cautious about raising short-term interest rates from near zero, where they have been since the depths of the financial crisis in 2008.

儘管有跡象表明經濟增長加快了，但美聯儲(Federal Reserve)依然對提高短期利率持謹慎態度。自金融危機最嚴重的2008年以來，美國的短期利率一直處於接近零的水平。

The central bank is expected to raise rates in mid-2015, but it signaled last week that it would remain patient in order to confirm that faster growth looked sustainable and would translate into increased hiring over the long term.

作爲美國的央行，美聯儲預計將在2015年中期提高利率。不過該機構上週表示將保持耐心，以便確定，長期而言，更快的增長看上去是可持續的，並且會轉化成就業的增加。

Doug Handler, chief United States economist at IHS, a consulting firm, said the data released Tuesday, along with the recent jobs report and comments by Fed officials, “solidifies our expectations that some action will be taken in June.”

諮詢公司環球通視(IHS)的美國市場首席經濟師道格·漢德勒(Doug Handler)表示，週二公佈的數據，連同最近的就業報告和聯邦官員的評論，“鞏固了我們對美聯儲明年6月會採取行動的預計。”

“It looks like we have a stronger economy than we thought a month ago,” he added, “which creates a compelling case for tightening.”

“看上去經濟比我們一個月前認爲的更加強勁，”他接着說，“創造了政策縮緊的有力理由。”

The latest data brings the average rate of growth in the first three quarters of 2014 to about 2.5 percent. Mr. Handler said he now expected fourth-quarter growth to be between 2.5 percent and 3 percent, up from an earlier estimate of roughly 2 percent, and predicted that the economy would grow 3 percent next year.

最新數據顯示，2014年前三個季度的平均增速達到了大約2.5%。漢德勒表示，他現在預計第四季度的增幅在2.5%到3%之間，而不是早前估算的2%左右。他還預言，明年的經濟增速將達3%。

The better-than-expected numbers Tuesday morning also prompted other experts to revise their forecasts upward. Macroeconomic Advisers, for example, lifted its estimate of fourth-quarter growth to 2.8 percent from an earlier forecast of 2.6 percent, while Goldman Sachs bumped its forecast to 2.6 percent from 2.2 percent.

週二上午發佈的數據好於預期，也促使其他一些專業機構上調了各自的預測值。比如，宏觀經濟諮詢公司(Macroeconomic Advisers)就將其對第四季度增幅的預估從早前的2.6%提至2.8%，而高盛(Goldman Sachs)也將預估數據從2.2%上調到了2.6%。