企業囤積現金的時代正走向尾聲

Is the era of corporate cash hoarding coming to an end? Certainly an end is devoutly to be hoped for. If US companies decided to run down cash to increase capital investment, thereby driving a more robust recovery, the benefit would be felt around the world. The global economy would likewise benefit if the corporate misers of Japan and China were to help reduce Asia’s mountain of excess savings.

企業囤積現金的時代正走向尾聲？人們肯定衷心希望如此。如果美國企業決定減持現金，增加資本投資，從而推動更穩健的經濟復甦，那麼全球都將感受到這種好處。同樣的，如果日本和中國那些不愛花錢的企業能幫助減少亞洲堆積如山的過剩儲蓄，全球經濟將受益。

If there is going to be movement in this direction the likely starting point is the US. According to a new survey of corporate treasurers by the Association for Financial Professionals, US companies are indeed starting to run down their cash balances for the first time since the recession. This squares with evidence in the national accounts. Federal Reserve data show that the US non-financial corporate sector has gone from being a net lender to the rest of the economy, to the tune of nearly $500bn at the peak in 2009, to being a modest net borrower in the first half of this year.

如果這方面將有什麼動作的話，美國可能是第一個。根據美國財務管理專業人士協會（Association of Financial Professional，簡稱AFP）對企業財務管理人員的最新調查，美國企業確實正開始減少現金餘額，這是自此次衰退以來的第一次。這與國民經濟賬戶的數據一致。美聯儲(Fed)的數據顯示，美國非金融企業已從對其他經濟領域的淨貸款者（2009年淨貸款曾達到近5000億美元的峯值水平），變成今年上半年的淨借款者，但數額不大。

The snag is that this confidence is not being reflected in non-residential private fixed investment, which Fed economists reckon increased at an annual average rate of only about 4 per cent in 2012 and 2013. Net investment after depreciation as a percentage of the capital stock remains subdued, hovering near 1.5 per cent a year.

問題是，這種信心並沒有反映在非居民私人固定投資上，美聯儲經濟學家估計，2012年至2013年，非居民私人固定投資平均每年僅增長4%左右。折舊後的淨投資與資本存量之比仍很低，徘徊在每年近1.5%的水平。

In effect, animal spirits in the corporate sector are being diverted into share buybacks. Such financial engineering cuts the number of shares in issue and artificially boosts earnings per share. For executives whose bonuses and incentive packages are related to EPS this works wonders on overall pay. For shareholders it may be another matter.

實際上，企業界的動物精神正將注意力轉向股權回購。這種金融操作削減了已發行股票數量，並人爲提高了每股收益。對於那些獎金和激勵計劃與每股收益掛鉤的高管而言，這將對他們的總薪資帶來驚人的效果。對於股東而言，則可能是另一回事。

With equity valuations historically high, this is unlikely to be an efficient allocation of capital. That reflects an ownership vacuum. In the next 12 months we will find out how damaging this might be for the real economy if quoted businesses continue to invest halfheartedly in equipment.

在股市市值處於歷史高點之際，這不太可能有效配置資本。這反映出一種所有權真空。未來12個月，如果上市公司繼續在設備投資方面三心二意，我們就會發現這可能會對實體經濟造成何種破壞。

In Japan, too, poor corporate governance plays a part in corporate cash hoarding. With minimal accountability to shareholders, companies naturally hang on to cash. A deflationary environment has also acted as a deterrent to increasing what is already a high level of business investment relative to the US. To its credit, Shinzo Abe’s government has introduced governance reforms designed to encourage companies to raise payout ratios. Yet the macro side of Abenomics will far outweigh governance reform because of a misdiagnosis of Japan’s economic problems.

在日本，糟糕的公司治理也在企業囤積現金行爲中發揮了一定作用。企業對股東的責任心很弱，它們自然會緊緊握住現金。通縮環境也阻礙了相對於美國已處於高位的企業投資的擴大。爲此，安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)政府提出了旨在鼓勵企業提高派息率的治理改革。然而，由於對日本經濟問題的誤判，“安倍經濟學”(Abenomics)宏觀層面的作用力將遠遠超過公司治理改革。

At root, the deflationary threat in Japan results from underconsumption. The corporate sector’s savings surplus – cash flow far exceeds investment – is part of that. Business is simply hogging too much of national income. Yet the effect of yen devaluation has been to transfer income from the household sector to the corporate sector. To prevent higher consumption tax weakening domestic demand, the government has also cut corporation tax and dished out investment incentives to business, while raising public spending. Again the flows are the wrong way round.

從根本上來說，日本的通縮威脅來自消費不足。企業的過剩儲蓄（現金流遠遠超過投資）是一個原因。企業佔據了太多的國民收入。然而，日元貶值的影響是收入從家庭轉向企業。爲了防止消費稅上調打擊內需，日本政府還降低了企業稅並向企業提供投資激勵，同時擴大公共支出。這再次搞錯了方向。

The prospect of change in China may be better. In the effort to shift from an investment rate not far short of 50 per cent of gross domestic product to a more consumption-oriented economic model, Chinese state-owned companies will be encouraged to pay out more of their cash. Yet the interesting question here is whether the beneficial effect of less cash hoarding, in global terms, will be offset by excessive saving in the eurozone.

在中國，變革的前景可能更好一些。在努力使經濟模式從投資佔國內生產總值(GDP)的比重接近50%，轉向更多由消費拉動的過程中，中國國有企業將被鼓勵支出更多現金。然而，一個有趣的問題是，從全球的角度來說，減少現金囤積的有益影響是否會被歐元區的過度儲蓄所抵消。

The eurozone’s positive current account balance is now running at 2.5 per cent of GDP. Since the surplus represents an excess of savings over investment, the eurozone is sucking demand out of the world economy. And as a result of German-led fiscal austerity the eurozone economy is on the brink of deflation.

歐元區的經常賬戶盈餘現在佔GDP的2.5%。由於盈餘代表着儲蓄高於投資，因此歐元區正從全球經濟中抽走需求。以德國爲首的財政緊縮導致歐元區經濟正處於通縮邊緣。

While the European Central Bank is buying assets in an attempt to loosen policy, it is not clear that it can do so on a scale and in a timely enough way to prevent deflationary psychology setting in.

儘管歐洲央行(ECB)正購買資產以放鬆貨幣政策，但目前還不清楚，此舉是否足夠有規模和及時，從而阻止通縮心理出現。

With fiscal tensions mounting and friction between creditor and debtor countries over any potential move by the ECB to quantitative easing building up, the eurozone appears to have reached a pivotal moment. Current policy has failed. A new approach needs to be thrashed out.

由於財政緊張狀態加劇，同時債權國和債務國之間圍繞歐洲央行可能採取的量化寬鬆政策的分歧增多，歐元區似乎已達到一個關鍵時刻。當前的政策已失靈。歐洲需要研究出一種新的戰略。