中國央行爲追逐回報率入股意大利企業

If you find yourself forking out $30,000 for a Jeep Cherokee, know that $600 of that will go to China's government.

如果你爲購買一輛吉普•切諾基(Jeep Cherokee)支付了3萬美元，那麼你要知道的是，其中600美元將進入中國政府的口袋。

Disclosures last month from Italy's securities regulator listed the People's Bank of China with a 2% stake in Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV, the Turin, Italy-based holding company of the iconic American car maker Chrysler and owner of the Jeep brand. Separate statements also showed the PBOC holding around 2% of Telecom Italia SpA and cable maker Prysmian SpA. This follows first-quarter revelations that the Chinese central bank had acquired similar sized holdings in Italian oil producer Eni SpA and utility Enel SpA.

意大利證券監管者上個月披露的信息顯示，中國央行持有菲亞特克萊斯勒汽車(Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV) 2%的股份。總部設在意大利都靈的菲亞特克萊斯勒汽車是美國汽車製造商克萊斯勒集團(Chrysler)的持股公司，吉普•切諾基品牌就出自其麾下。其它一些公告顯示，中國央行還持有意大利電信(Telecom Italia SpA)以及電纜製造商Prysmian SpA各自大約2%的股權。第一季度監管機構曾披露，中國央行已經從意大利油氣生產商Eni SpA和基礎設施公司Enel SpA買入了類似比例的股權。

It's the latest reminder that in an era of rock-bottom bond yields driven in part by expansive central-bank policy, government-run investors face the same dilemma as private-money managers: They must venture into ever-riskier assets to extract returns.

上述狀況再次提醒人們，在債券收益率因央行寬鬆政策而跌至谷底的階段，政府運作的投資機構也跟私營基金經理們面臨着同樣的兩難困境：爲了獲得高回報，必須冒險投資風險更高的資產。

China's forays into Italian stocks were likely done by fund managers from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, not the PBOC itself. SAFE is an agency of the central bank but invests independently under a mandate to optimize returns on the country's foreign-currency reserves and keeps its giant balance sheet separate.

中國央行涉水這些意大利企業股份的交易可能是通過國家外匯管理局（簡稱：外管局）完成的，而非央行自身。外管局是央行旗下的一個機構，但以實現國家外匯儲備收益率最大化爲職責進行獨立投資，其龐大的資產負債表也保持獨立。

Yet that $4 trillion portfolio owes its existence to a decade of currency market interventions by the PBOC, all undertaken to anchor the yuan exchange rate. That a small portion of it has now made China a notable shareholder in Italy's corporate establishment underscores the problematic nature of those interventions. It gives rise to unintended secondary effects, especially when other central banks are also aggressively intervening in money markets.

然而，這個4萬億美元投資組合，是中國央行爲了穩定人民幣匯率在外匯市場長達十年的干預行動的結果。而其中很小的一部分就讓中國現在成爲了意大利企業的一個引人注目的股東，這凸顯出這些干預行動存在的問題。它會在產生意想不到的副作用，尤其是在其他國家央行也積極干預貨幣市場的時候。

Equities are among the riskiest of investment classes, and so were once considered taboo for central bank reserve managers. Not anymore, not when they are creating more money than they can figure out what to do with. Asian and European central banks -- or their independent money manager agents, such as SAFE -- have been quietly building diversified stock portfolios, says Edwin Truman, a fellow at the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics.

股票是風險最高的投資類別之一，因此一度被視爲央行儲備管理者的禁區。現在則不一樣了，因爲他們“攢的錢”已經超出了他們能夠應付的規模。彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics)的研究員杜魯門(Edwin Truman)說，亞洲和歐洲國家的央行――或者說它們的獨立資金管理機構，例如中國外管局――一直都在靜悄悄地建立多元化股票頭寸。

These investments will juice up returns and potentially satisfy governments that are increasingly demanding profits from both reserve managers and state-run sovereign wealth funds. But they can also expose taxpayer-owned assets to potential losses, create an awkward relationship between a government shareholder and corporate management, and foster share price volatility by encouraging private investors to speculate on these powerful new players' strategies.

這些投資將提高回報率並且可能讓日益要求儲備管理人和國有主權財富基金利潤的政府滿意。但同時，它們也可能令爲納稅人所有的資產面臨潛在損失，在政府股東和企業管理層之間創造一種尷尬關係，並且引發私營部門投資者就這些實力雄厚的新參與者的戰略進行投機，進而造成股價波動。

So far SAFE's Italian bets haven't fared so well. Following news Wednesday that Italy slipped back into recession last quarter, Milan's FTSE MIB index is down 11.5% from March 31. Fiat's shares are now down 20%, Prysmian's 17%, and Telecom Italia's 4%.

迄今爲止，中國外管局對意大利的押注運氣不怎麼好。在上週三意大利最新一個季度再度陷入衰退的消息傳出後，意大利的FTSE MIB股指較3月31日回落了11.5%。菲亞特的股價現在下跌20%，普睿司曼(Prysmian)跌17%，意大利電訊(Telecom Italia)跌4%。

SAFE is in for the longest of hauls and these holdings are a tiny fraction of total assets. So, for now it can ignore such paper losses. But divulging its holdings could put it under more scrutiny within China, crimping its freedom to act, says Mr. Truman.

外管局可以長期持有這些股份，而且這些持股只是其總資產中很小的一部分。因此，外管局暫時可以忽視這些賬面損失。但杜魯門說，披露這些持股信息可能會使外管局在中國國內受到更多監督，制約其行動自由。

The problem is it's increasingly difficult to assure an acceptable return on low-risk assets -- especially in Europe. Demand for German 10-year bunds is so heavy that their yields hover above 1% and the government bonds of once crisis-wracked Spain are near 200-year lows. This pushes profit-seeking reserve managers into the same 'hunt for yield' that's driving private investors into ever-riskier investments.

問題是現在越來越難確信低風險資產能夠提供一個可接受的回報率，特別是在歐洲。市場對德國10年期國債的需求如此旺盛，以致於其收益率一直徘徊在1%上方。而在曾經受債務危機困擾的西班牙，國債收益率目前接近200年低點。這種狀況促使追求贏利的外匯儲備管理者也加入到“追尋收益率”的行列中，就像私人投資者出於同樣目的涉足更有風險的投資一樣。

The roots of this dilemma lie with central banks' own behavior. And it's not just the PBOC's interventions or the $4 trillion now burning a hole in SAFE's pockets that are to blame. There's been a rapid expansion of central banks' balance sheets everywhere.

造成這種困境的根源是央行自己的行爲。問題不僅限於中國央行對外匯市場的干預以及外管局的4萬億美元投資組合。事實上，全球各國央行的資產規模都在迅速擴大。

In its annual Global Public Investor report from June, the London-based Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum estimated that central banks world-wide now have $13.2 trillion in assets under management.

在6月份發佈的年度報告《全球公共投資者》(Global Public Investor)中，總部位於倫敦的官方貨幣與金融機構論壇(Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum)估計，全球央行目前管理的資產達13.2萬億美元。

The U.S. Federal Reserve has tapered its 'quantitative easing' program but it's still buying a hefty $25 billion a month in bonds while the Bank of Japan acquires 7 trillion yen ($68 billion) over the same period. And since nearly every major central bank's benchmark interest rate is near zero, which encourages private investors to chase risk, these purchase programs drive central banks scrambling into a global competition for scare assets.

美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve, 簡稱：美聯儲)已在逐漸削減“定量寬鬆”措施，但目前每月仍買進多達250億美元的債券，而日本央行每月要買進7萬億日圓（約合680億美元）的債券。目前幾乎所有主要央行的基準利率都接近零，從而鼓勵了私人投資者追逐風險，而這些債券購買措施促使央行爭相加入到爭奪風險資產的全球競爭中。

Is that what we want the managers of our money to be doing?

這難道就是我們希望外匯儲備管理者所做的事情嗎？