歸國留學生：海龜們的困境

“I LEFT in 1980 with only three dollars in my pocket,” recalls Li Sanqi. Like most in that elite group, he excelled, rising to a coveted position at the University of Texas, while launching several technology firms. Now he is a senior executive at Huawei, a Chinese telecoms giant, enticed back by the chance to help build a world-class multinational.

Mr Li seems the perfect example of a sea turtle, orhai gui(in Mandarin, the phrase “return across the sea” sounds similar to that animal’s name), long applauded in China for bringing back advanced skills. In the past such folk reliably reaped handsome premiums in the local job market, but no longer. Sea turtles are not universally praised, the wage differential is shrinking and some are even unable to find jobs. Wags say they should now be calledhai dai, or seaweed. This is a startling turn, given their past contributions.

Wang Huiyao of the China Western Returned Scholars Association, which celebrates its centenary this year, observes that sea turtles have returned in five waves. The first, in the 19th century, produced China’s first railway-builder and its first university president. The second and third, before 1949, produced many leaders of the Nationalist and Communist parties. The fourth wave, which went to the Soviet bloc in the 1950s, produced such leaders as Jiang Zemin and Li Peng.

The present wave began in 1978, and is by far the biggest. Since then, about 2.6m Chinese have gone abroad to study. The exodus has grown of late to about 400,000 per year. The majority stay overseas, but the 1.1m who have come back have made a difference. Mr Wang argues that whereas the first three waves revolutionised China and the fourth modernised it, the fifth wave is globalising the country.

Sea turtles are helping to link China’s economy to the world. They founded leading technology firms such as Baidu. Many are senior managers in the local divisions of multinational firms. They are helping to connect China to commercial, political and popular culture abroad.

Why then is their importance declining? Several studies show that sea turtles on average must now wait longer to find a less senior post at a smaller salary premium over local hires. The weakening job market for all graduates is one reason. Another is that, as China’s domestic market has taken off, industries such as e-commerce have evolved in ways unfamiliar to those who spent years abroad. Gary Rieschel of Qiming Ventures, a venture-capital firm, says that investors who a decade ago would have funded only those returning from Silicon Valley are now backing entrepreneurs from local universities, who are more familiar with local consumption patterns, computer-gaming habits and social media such as Weibo and Weixin.

As China has boomed, its managers have started to shed their inferiority complex. A senior executive at Tencent, a Chinese social-media giant, says he still poaches sea turtles from foreign firms, but finds they have difficulty managing local engineers. A European investment banker says turtles often cling to quaint Western notions like transparency, meritocracy and ethics, which puts them at a disadvantage in China’s hyper-Darwinian economy, where locals are more willing to do whatever the boss or client wants.

Even foreign firms in China are getting pickier about whom they hire. Yannig Gourmelon of Roland Berger, a German management consultancy, believes the broader profit squeeze at multinational firms that killed off gilded expatriate packages has also sharply reduced the salary premium offered to sea turtles.

C grade turtles

There is another explanation: many of the latest wave are of lower quality. In the past, only the very best were allowed to go out and so competition for government scholarships was fierce. But as incomes have risen, many families of mediocre Chinese students have spent a fortune on degrees from universities of dubious quality that do little to enhance their job prospects. Worse yet, partly because of the downturn in Western economies, many have come back without work experience.

Even as hordes of less employable expatriates return, the brightest remain abroad. A study funded by America’s National Science Foundation found that 92% of Chinese with American PhDs still lived in that country five years after graduation. For Indians, the figure was 81%, for South Koreans 41% and for Mexicans 32%.

To lure such superstars back, the Chinese government is pouring pots of money into a scheme called 1,000 Talents, which offers generous subsidies and other perks. The powerful Organisation Department of the Communist Party is urging regional leaders and university heads to meet quotas for securing talent. In a forthcoming paper, Mr Wang and David Zweig of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology argue that China has been “perhaps the most assertive government in the world” in such efforts.

Will it work? It seems doubtful. Despite the policies, returning entrepreneurs hit many problems. Labour and land costs are rising, the theft of intellectual property is still rampant and corruption is widespread. Few top-tier scientists have returned. Mr Wang and Mr Zweig’s paper explains why: “If China wants to bring back the best, it needs a fundamental reform of its academic and scientific institutions” to break the power of politicised administrators over hiring and funding.

The hard truth is that Chinese abroad often have ambivalent attitudes towards their homeland. The wife and children of Huawei’s Mr Li, the seemingly archetypal sea turtle, still live in America. Rather than just shovelling out subsidies, Chinese officials might do better to strengthen the rule of law, root out corruption and clean up China’s air, water and food. Sea turtles would be sure to notice.據《經濟學人》7月6日報道——“我在1980年離開（中國），口袋裏僅揣着3美元，”李三奇（音譯）回憶道。和那一批中大多數的精英們一樣，他表現出衆，並在曾催生過諸多科技公司的德克薩斯大學中晉升到一個令人垂涎的位置。現在他是中國電信巨頭——華爲公司的高級管理人員，他因中國需其幫忙以建立一個世界級跨國公司而被召喚回國。

李先生是海龜們的傑出代表。海龜，意爲“海歸”，常被用於讚譽那些從國外引進新技術回中國的留學生們。過去，海龜們曾因這種讚譽而在當地就業市場中獲得可觀收入。然而，好時光一去不復返。海龜們不再獲得普遍好評，他們與當地勞動力的工資差距正在減少，有些甚至難以找到工作。坊間有稱他們現在應該被稱爲海待（海帶）。在這個轉折點上，他們昔日輝煌不再。

王輝耀，是已走過百年曆程的歐美同學會中的一員，他觀察到共有五次海龜回國潮。第一次發生在19世紀，併爲中國培育了第一條鐵路設計者以及第一個大學校長；第二和第三次，發生在1949年以前，併爲國共兩黨培育出許多領導人；第四次浪潮，和1950年被送往蘇聯陣營深造有關，併產生了如江澤民及李鵬等領導人。

現在我們正經歷始於1978年的第五次浪潮，也是最大的一次。從那以後，約260萬中國學子出國深造。最近，這批大量外出深造的隊伍以每年40萬人的速度增長。他們中的大部分留在海外，但是其中的110萬人回國發展，希望創不同。王先生認爲，如果說前三次留學歸國浪潮有助於變革中國，第四次浪潮爲了使中國走向現代化，那麼第五次浪潮則爲這個國家帶來全球化。

海龜們將中國經濟與世界相連。他們成立了諸如百度等科技公司。他們中的大多數成爲了跨國公司駐中國分公司的高級經理。他們正在從商業、政治以及流行文化上着手，幫助中國走向世界。

他們的重要性爲何會下降？多項研究表明，和本地員工相比，海龜們需要花更多時間才能晉升到一個有較小工資溢價的不那麼高級的職位。其中，這也和應屆生就業市場疲軟有關。另一個原因，則是因爲（海龜們）已和中國國內市場脫軌。諸如電商等行業近年來發生巨大變化，對於那些在外漂泊數年的海龜們而言，一切都不再熟悉。啓明創投的Gary Rieschel提到，十年前到處網羅從硅谷回來的投資者們現在將目光轉移到從當地大學畢業的企業家們身上，因爲他們更熟悉當地的消費模式，電腦遊戲習慣以及諸如微博以及微信等社會媒體的使用方法。

隨着中國的蓬勃發展，經理人們開始逐漸擺脫他們的自卑感。中國社交媒體巨頭騰訊公司的一位高級管理人員說，他仍從國外公司網絡海龜，但是卻發現他們難以管理掌控當地的工程師們。一位歐洲的投資銀行家說，海龜們傾向堅持屬於西方的（在中國看起來）“奇怪”的信條：如透明，任人唯賢以及職業道德等，而這讓他們在中國超達爾文經濟的競爭中處於劣勢地位——在中國，人們願意竭盡所能達成老闆與客戶所好。

即使是中國的外資企業，也在聘請人員上越來越挑剔。德國管理諮詢公司羅蘭貝格的古默龍（Yannig Gourmelon）認爲，跨國公司利潤的大幅度減少，使那些鍍金過的外派人員待遇下降，也是讓海龜們獲得更少薪金的原因。

C級海龜

現在還有另外一個解釋：許多最近歸國的海龜們（和之前相比）質量較低。過去，只有那些精英中的精英才被允許出國留學，因此，政府獎學金的競爭異常激烈；但是現在，隨着收入的增加，許多平庸學生也能依靠財富獲取一個質量可疑大學的文憑，而這對增加其職場競爭力，提高就業前景沒有任何幫助。比這更遭的是，部分由於西方國家的經濟衰落，海龜們歸國全無工作經驗。

即使現在（海龜們）以受僱外籍人士身份回國的數量越來越少，最聰明的仍留在國外。一個由美國國家科學基金會資助的研究發現，擁有美國博士學位的92%的中國人在畢業五年後仍留在美國。與此對應，這個情況對於印度人來說是81％，對於韓國人而言是41％，對於墨西哥人來說是32％。

爲了吸引這些超級巨星們，中國政府投入大量資金到一個旨在爲他們提供慷慨補貼及大量津貼的“千人計劃”之中。中共組織部正敦促地方領導人以及大學校長們完成一定配額，以引進人才。在即將發表的論文中，王先生以及香港科技大學崔大偉（David　Zweig）認爲，就這些方面而言，中國“也許是世界上最果斷的政府”。

這些做法有用嗎？現在下結論還爲時尚早。儘管有了這些政策，歸國企業家們仍面臨許多問題。勞動力成本以及土地資金費用正在上升。在頂級科學家們的圈子中，幾乎沒有人回國。在王先生和崔大偉的論文中解釋了這一現象：“如果中國希望吸引最好的（科學家）回國，那麼她需要對學術及科研機構進行根本性的改革”，並以此跳出行政長官僱傭和資助科研的怪圈。

一個殘酷的事實是，遠在國外的中國人對於他們的祖國常常懷有矛盾的心情。在華爲工作的李先生，就是典型海龜中的一員，他的妻兒仍在美國居住。若想吸引海龜們迴歸，除提高補助外，中國官員也許還需要加強法治，根除腐敗，淨化空氣，清潔水源，解決食品安全問題。如果他們真這樣做了，海龜們一定注意得到。