投資者對黃金前景表示樂觀
Gold has been lackluster this year, but some high-profile fans say the future is brightening.
今年以來黃金一直表現平平，不過一些高調的黃金追隨者說，投資黃金的前景日漸光明。
After soaring to an all-time high last year, gold prices have dropped 13%. Gold has crept higher in 2012, though it has lagged behind stocks and some other commodities.
去年金價飆升至歷史高位之後又回落了13%。2012年黃金價格有所升高，但漲幅仍然落後於股市和其他一些大宗商品。
But some investors, including Pacific Investment Management Co. and hedge-fund managers John Paulson and George Soros are doubling down on gold, while others are trumpeting bullish forecasts.
不過，包括太平洋投資管理公司(Pacific Investment Management Co.，簡稱Pimco)以及鮑爾森(John Paulson)、索羅斯(George Soros)等對衝基金經理在內的一些投資者正在加倍對黃金進行投資，同時另外一些人也不斷髮出對黃金的樂觀預期。
They cite a continuing threat of financial turmoil in Europe, the prospect of additional U.S. monetary stimulus that could erode the value of the dollar and bolster gold, and the risk that long-dormant inflation could return.
這些人的理由包括：歐洲金融動盪的威脅仍在持續，美國額外的刺激性貨幣政策可能會使美元貶值並提振金價，以及長期潛伏的通脹重新擡頭的風險。
Each scenario would benefit gold, which often acts as a haven from turmoil as well as keeping its value in times of inflation.
出現上述任何一種情形都會讓黃金受益，黃金通常扮演着避險投資選擇的角色，在通脹時也能保值。
As if on cue, gold jumped almost 1% on Wednesday in electronic trading after minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy-setting meeting indicated the central bankers were leaning toward a new round of quantitative easing. Many investors anticipate that could be announced as early as next month.
美聯儲最近一次政策會議的紀要顯示，美聯儲官員傾向於推出新一輪量化寬鬆政策，在此之後，週三電子交易時段的黃金價格應聲上漲了約1%。許多投資者預計，美聯儲最早在下個月就會宣佈新一輪的量化寬鬆政策。
The world's biggest bond-fund manager, Pacific Investment Management, increased the gold holdings in its $21 billion CommodityRealReturn Strategy Fund to 11.5% of total assets recently, from 10.5% two months ago, according to Nicholas Johnson, the fund's co-manager. Pimco anticipates inflation will begin to rise in about a year and that gold will be a beneficiary.
全球最大的債券型基金公司Pimco旗下大宗商品實際回報策略基金(Commodity Real Return Strategy Fund)的聯席基金經理約翰遜(Nicholas Johnson)說，他所管理的這隻規模210億美元的基金最近已將黃金資產佔總資產的比例從兩個月前的10.5%提高至11.5%。Pimco預計，通脹水平將會在大約一年以後開始擡頭，屆時黃金將因此受益。
'Broadly speaking, we prefer owning real assets as opposed to financial assets,' Mr. Johnson said. Mr. Johnson said his fund bought as gold dipped toward $1,500 a troy ounce.
約翰遜說，一般來說，與金融資產相比，我們更喜歡擁有實實在在的資產。約翰遜說，黃金下降至每金衡盎司1,500美元時，他的基金就出手買入了。
As of late Wednesday in New York, gold was at $1,653.10 a troy ounce in electronic trading. The precious metal settled at $1,637.40, down 0.15% for the day, but up 4.6% so far this year.
截至週三晚些時候，在紐約，電子交易時段的金價爲每金衡盎司1,653.10美元，當日收盤價爲1,637.40美元，當日下跌0.15%。不過年初迄今，金價已上漲了4.6%。
Gold's all-time high of $1,888.70─without adjusting for inflation─came in August last year, just weeks after Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. credit rating.
去年8月黃金價格創出1,888.70美元（未經通脹調整）的歷史紀錄，而此前幾周，標準普爾(Standard & Poor)下調了對美國的信用評級。
That decline has caused pain for many gold bulls. But several have held on to their positions in anticipation that the metal will come roaring back.
金價下跌讓大量看多黃金的投資者痛苦不堪。但是一些人堅持持有他們的頭寸，他們預計金價將強勢反彈。
'I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a new record this year,' said Eric Sprott, chief investment officer at Toronto-based Sprott Asset Management. The firm has various funds that offer exposure to gold, including its Offshore Fund Limited, which bets on shares of miners, among other things. Still, that exposure hasn't helped the fund, which is down 26% this year through July.
多倫多基金公司Sprott Asset Management的首席投資長斯普羅特(Eric Sprott)說，如果今年金價創下歷史新高，我一點也不會感到意外。該公司有多種投資黃金領域的基金，其中包括Offshore Fund Limited。這隻基金押注的對象之一是礦業公司的股票。儘管如此，在黃金上的投資並沒有給這隻基金帶來提振，今年截至7月份該基金累計下跌了26%。
Prominent fund managers, including Messrs. Paulson and Soros, also have increased their gold holdings, according to regulatory filings. Mr. Paulson's firm, Paulson & Co., held 98 million shares of various gold-mining companies as of June 30, up 3.5% from the end of the first quarter, according to filings. The shares were worth $1.9 billion at June 30, according to filings.
據提交給監管機構的備案文件顯示，包括鮑爾森和索羅斯在內的知名基金經理也已經增持了黃金。據監管備案文件顯示，截至6月30日，鮑爾森麾下的Paulson & Co.持有各類金礦公司股票共9,800萬股，較一季度末增加了3.5%。據備案文件顯示，以6月30日的股價計算，這些股票總值爲19億美元。Paulson & Co. owned 21.8 million shares of SPDR Gold Shares, an exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, at June 30, an increase of 4.5 million shares from March 31, according to filings. The higher mining and ETF holdings reflect Mr. Paulson's bullish thesis on gold, one he has had since 2009, according to a person close to the fund.
據監管備案文件顯示，截至6月30日，Paulson & Co.持有2,180萬份黃金交易所買賣基金(ETF) SPDR Gold Shares，較3月31日增加了450萬份。據一位瞭解該基金的人士說，增持礦業及黃金ETF反映出鮑爾森對黃金的看好。自2009年以來鮑爾森一直看好黃金。
Soros Fund Management LLC more than doubled its stake in SPDR Gold Shares over the same period, leaving it with shares worth $137.3 million as of June 30, according to a separate filing. The filings don't indicate how long the shares have been held or whether the stakes have changed since then. A spokesman declined to comment.
另外一份監管備案文件顯示，同期Soros Fund Management LLC持有的SPDR Gold Shares份額增加了一倍以上；以6月30日的價格計算，該公司所持份額總值爲1.373億美元。文件中沒有披露這些份額已經持有多久，也未透露此後持有量是否發生了變化。該公司發言人不予置評。
Some analysts aren't so optimistic. Credit Suisse recently sliced its 2012 outlook for gold by 5% to $1,680, because of weak demand for physical bullion in India and Southeast Asia. Demand from India and China has weakened in recent months, according to the World Gold Council, a gold-mining industry group. Morgan Stanley also cut its forecast recently.
一些分析人士則沒有這麼樂觀。瑞信(Credit Suisse)最近將其對2012年黃金價格的預期下調了5%，至每金衡盎司1,680美元，原因是印度和東南亞對黃塊的需求低迷。據黃金開採行業組織世界黃金協會(World Gold Council)的數據，近幾個月，印度和中國的黃金需求減弱。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)最近也下調了對黃金價格的預期。
Even some who expect prices to rise are moderating their outlooks. Julian Jessop, head of commodities research at Capital Economics, a London-based consulting firm, said he has 'scaled back my bullishness,' revising his estimate for gold's peak down from $2,500 to $2,000.
就連一些預計金價會上漲的人士也開始調低對黃金前景的預期。倫敦諮詢公司凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)大宗商品研究負責人傑索普(Julian Jessop)說，自己的樂觀預期已經有所收斂，他把自己對金價高點的預期從每金衡盎司2,500美元下調至2,000美元。
Still, he expects gold to hit that lower level by year-end, as the world confronts the possibility that one or more countries may leave Europe's common-currency system. 'When people really start to focus on the prospect of the euro zone breaking up, that's when gold will get a lift,' he said.
儘管如此，由於世界面臨着一個或多個國家退出歐元區的可能，他仍預計金價將在年底前觸及調低後的預期。他說，只有當人們真正開始重視歐元區解體的這一前景時，纔是金價得到提振的時候。
Other analysts are sticking to their bullish price outlooks. In late March, as gold faltered, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reiterated a prior forecast that prices would hit $1,785 over three months. Gold missed that target, but the Wall Street bank hasn't changed the forecast.
其他分析人士則堅持看漲黃金。3月底，雖然金價搖擺不定，高盛(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)重申了此前的預測，即三個月內金價將觸及每金衡盎司1,785美元。金價沒有漲到高盛預測的水平，但這家華爾街投行並未改變自己的預測。
'Our view is that gold is still underpriced,' David Greely, chief commodities strategist for Goldman, said. 'We still expect gold prices to move
高盛首席大宗商品策略師格里利(David Greely)說，我們認爲黃金價格仍然偏低，我們仍預計金價將走高。
