人人上市令Facebook在中國進退兩難大綱
The stock market debut of Chinese social network Renren will have turned heads at Facebook. The sky-high valuation when shares were priced on Wednesday (at more than 70 times 2010 revenues) conveyed a simple message: investors are hungry for growth. And there is no other growth story with the allure of the Chinese internet.
中國社交網站人人(Renren)上市首日的表現應會傲視Facebook。人人股票週三定價時獲得的天價估值（超過了2010年收入的70倍），傳遞出一個簡單的信息：投資者渴望增長，而有了中國互聯網的吸引力，其他什麼都算不上增長故事了。
For Facebook, which has itself never known anything but outsized growth, this is a sobering thought. Its high penetration among internet users in many established markets is starting to make it reliant on populous, less-developed markets for continued expansion – and they don’t come any bigger than China.
對於除了超快增長不知道其他的Facebook，這是個發人深省的念頭。Facebook在許多成熟市場的互聯網用戶中已經有了很高的普及率，爲了繼續擴張，它開始依賴於人口衆多的欠發達國家市場——而中國就是其中最大的一個。
The US company’s service is blocked by China’s Great Firewall. It had already been exploring ways to get a local foothold, and this week’s events have only heightened the urgency. But a move into China also carries great risk. If handled badly it could turn out to be a defining moment for the company – for all the wrong reasons.
Facebook的服務遭到了中國防火長城(GFW)的屏蔽。這家美國公司已經在探索如何才能在中國落地，本週的事件更是加重了其緊迫性。但進軍中國也有巨大的風險。若處理不當，可能會讓Facebook限於危急時刻——出於種種錯誤的理由。
At least there is one reliable guidepost to follow: learn from Google’s mistakes.
至少有一個可信的路標作爲參照：從谷歌(Google)的錯誤中吸取教訓。
This is partly a question of style. As described by author Steven Levy, in his recent book In the Plex, Google arrived in China in the middle of the last decade with its hubris freshly polished. The search company also chose not to ally itself with a local partner with the heft and the connections to provide cover from hostile bureaucrats and politicians. Through its own missteps, the clever manoeuvring of local rival Baidu and the antagonism of the Chinese authorities, it eventually came to be seen by many Chinese as an arrogant and out-of-touch foreigner.
這部分是風格的問題。如史蒂芬?列維(Steven Levy)在最近的新書《走進谷歌》(In the Plex)中所述，五六年前，谷歌帶着光可鑑人的傲氣來到了中國。這家搜索公司還選擇了不與有權有勢、能在不友好的官員和政治家面前爲其打掩護的當地合作伙伴結盟。由於谷歌自身的失誤，本土競爭者百度(Baidu)高明的運作，以及中國有關部門的對抗，在許多中國人的眼中，谷歌最終變成了一個傲慢而又孤陋寡聞的外國佬。
Mark Zuckerberg shows every sign of having learnt from this, as evidenced by the Mandarin lessons the Facebook chief executive has been taking. And reports (so far unconfirmed) have linked his company with both China Mobile and Baidu as allies to smooth Facebook’s entry.
所有跡象都顯示，Facebook首席執行官馬克?扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)從中吸取了教訓——他一直在上普通話課程就是明證。迄今未獲證實的報道則把中國移動(China Mobile)和百度都列爲Facebook在中國平穩落地的盟友。
Of course, this does not address the most vexing questions: Is it right to bow to Chinese censorship in the first place? And, since it hosts a great deal of personal information, would a successful Chinese Facebook become a handy data warehouse for an oppressive regime?
當然，這並沒有解決最棘手的問題：向中國的審查制度低頭究竟對不對？存有大量個人信息的Facebook在中國獲得成功，會不會成爲專制政權方便的信息庫？
Facebook must be prepared to take the hits that will inevitably come in the court of public opinion. But the reality, for Chinese internet users, is that none of their online information can be deemed to be out of reach of the authorities.
Facebook必須做好準備，接受在輿論法庭上必然會受到的抨擊。但中國互聯網用戶面臨的現實是，他們在網絡上的一切信息註定都逃不出政府的掌握。
Also, Facebook has at least never confused its goal of connecting people with a moral mission of the “Don’t be evil” kind: it is an agnostic communications platform. It is true that the core values of “sharing” that it espouses rely on a level of openness that does not exist on the Chinese internet. Any compromise will look like a betrayal of this ideal.
另外，Facebook至少從沒有將“溝通互聯”的目標與“不作惡”的道德使命混在一起——它是個不可知主義的溝通平臺。確實，它所推崇的“分享”的核心價值觀，依賴於中國互聯網所不具備的開放水平。任何妥協都會看起來像是對這一理念的背叛。Also, its effective use by activists to help organise the revolt in Egypt has left an inconvenient halo around the company.
活動分子有效利用Facebook組織埃及革命，也給這家公司戴上了一個尷尬的光環。
Moving into China too soon after this would invite a public relations disaster.
在此之後太快進入中國，將引起一場公關災難。
Mr Zuckerberg will have to weigh the damage all of this will do to the brand against the long-term risk of being shut out of China. Google ended up with the worst of both worlds. Facebook shows every sign of being ready to take the plunge – putting it alongside many other media and internet companies that believe they can’t afford to stay out.
扎克伯格將不得不權衡這一切對品牌的損害以及被關在中國大門之外的長期風險。谷歌最後在兩方面都落得了最糟糕的結果。所有跡象都顯示，Facebook已經準備往下跳，站在其他許多相信承受不起不進來的後果的媒體和互聯網公司旁邊。
That leaves two big questions. One is whether a Chinese Facebook should be walled off from the rest of the global social network. Information leakage is a concern: if you have a friend in China, do you really want Beijing to have access to all your personal information – not to mention your connections with other people in China? Options Facebook has studied include various filters to prevent international content from flowing on to its servers in China, and warnings to alert international users about the risks of connecting with people behind the Great Firewall. But none of this would be as clean and bulletproof as just walling China off completely, at least at the start.
這引出了兩大問題。首先，中國的Facebook是否應該與這個全球社交網絡的其他部分隔開。信息泄露令人關切——如果你有個朋友在中國，你真的想讓中國政府能夠獲得你所有的個人信息嗎？更不用說你與中國其他人的聯繫了。Facebook研究了許多解決方案，其中一個是採取各種過濾措施，防止國際內容流入在中國的服務器，以及警告國際用戶，提醒他們小心與防火長城內用戶聯繫的風險。但這些都沒有完全避開中國來得乾淨徹底——至少是在最開始。
The second big question has to do with governance. Should Facebook hand control to a local partner, as Yahoo has done by taking a back seat to Jack Ma of Alibaba? Or should it actively manage the business itself? But with its brand name on the line and long-term aspirations to be a real force in China, Facebook has little option but to put itself in the driving seat. It will not have escaped its notice that Mr Ma has been agitating to buy back Yahoo’s stake in Alibaba.
第二個大問題與公司治理有關。Facebook是應該像雅虎(Yahoo)退居阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的馬雲(Jack Ma)之後那樣，將控制權交給中國合作伙伴，還是應該積極參與經營管理？但要顧及品牌名聲，實現成爲在中國的一支真正力量的長遠抱負，Facebook幾乎別無選擇，只能親自坐上駕駛席。它也不會沒有注意到，馬雲一直在鼓動阿里巴巴回購雅虎持有的股份。
That means Facebook must engage more directly in China than Yahoo, though with the support of a stronger local ally than Google could count on. Finding a workable – and durable – relationship will be a stretch. But as the Renren debut shows, the time is fast approaching when Facebook will have to jump.
這意味着，即使倚爲後盾的本土盟友比谷歌的更爲強大，Facebook也必須比雅虎更直接地參與中國業務。找到一種可行——而又持久——的關係，將是一件痛苦的事情。但正如人人的首日上市所表明的那樣，Facebook必須“一跳”的日子正在迅速逼近。
