Facebook上市爲何引發投資者狂熱？

Cognitive dissonance describes the ability of the human brain to hold contradictory beliefs simultaneously. A version of it seems to run through investing public at the moment. At once, financial assets are reviled while there is a frenzy to get in on the Facebook (ticker: FB) initial public offering. How can that be reconciled?

“認知失調”指的是人類大腦同時接受彼此矛盾的觀點的情形，當前的投資者似乎正在經歷着某種形式的認知失調。在同一時期內，投資者一邊在對金融資產大加指責，而一邊卻又表現出對參與Facebook首次公開募股(IPO)的狂熱。這兩種態度如何能夠同時存在？

The easiest way is to refute the article of faith held by efficient-market theorists -- that investors are rational calculators of all relevant information and set prices accordingly, at all time and at all places. As years pass, I see less and less evidence of rationality among humans (perhaps inspired by the presence of a teenager in our household.) And if anything, Washington seems to act like the ultimate high school, with cliques standing off from each other while a fiscal disaster looms.

相關報道最容易的辦法就是拋棄“有效市場”理論家的觀點，即無論何時何地，投資者都會對所有相關信息進行理性分析，並據此定價。據我多年的經驗，能夠證明人類擁有理性的證據越來越少（也許是因爲我家有個十幾歲的孩子）。比如說吧，美國政府的行爲就像是高中生，在財政災難逼近時，仍然結成小派系互相爭執不下。

The revulsion expressed by the investing public has been apparent and has been discussed previously here ('When Will Main Street Return to Wall Street? Don't Hold Your Breath' and 'Fed's Repression Meets Investors' Revulsion'.) Investors continue to yank money from equity mutual funds while stampeding into bond funds with yields paying a pittance.

投資者表達出的反感已經顯而易見，他們繼續撤出對股票共同基金的投資，同時一窩蜂地涌入收益可憐的債券基金市場。

Based on fund flows, investors want safety (or the illusion of same, given bond funds can lose value readily) along with income. It would appear they want no part of the risk of stocks, which they've seen crater twice in the last 10 years, first in the dot-com debacle in 2000-01 and then in the near-meltdown in 2008-09 from the collapse of the mortgage and housing market.

從資金流向來看，投資者想要在獲得收入的同時保證資產安全（或者只是懷着這種幻想，因爲債券基金很可能迅速貶值）。顯然，他們不想承擔股票的風險。在過去10年裏，他們見證了兩次股市崩盤，第一次是在2000年至2001年，互聯網公司泡沫破裂的時候，第二次是在2008年到09年，抵押債券和房地產市場崩潰導致股市幾乎癱瘓。

But there is a clamor for the initial public offering of shares of Facebook the likes of which hasn't been seen since the dot-com hysteria of the end of the last century. The offering has been boosted some 14% in terms of its anticipated price, based on the mid-point of the current anticipated price range of $34-$38 a share, up from $28-$35 previously. In addition, the size of the offering has been expanded 25%, to 421 million shares, making for a $15 billion offering at the mid-point of the anticipated pricing range.

但是Facebook的IPO還是引發了轟動。自從上個世紀末期互聯網公司引發狂熱之後，類似的情況還是頭一次出現。從目前每股34至38美元的預期估值的中間值來看，Facebook的預期每股發行價格已經上升了約14%，此前的定價區間爲28至35美元。此外，此次的股票發行規模也擴大了25%，達到了共4.21億股股票，以預期定價區間的中間值計算，此次IPO的規模將達到150億美元。

Even with the expanded offering size, it's unlikely the individual investors clamoring for shares will get the allotment they desire. That's even with the effort to democratize the IPO, adding online broker E*Trade Financial (ticker: ETFC) to the underwriting group led by Wall Street blue bloods Morgan Stanley (MS), JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS).

儘管Facebook擴大了發行規模，而且爲了將IPO大衆化而將網上經紀商E*Trade Financial也加入了承銷團隊，那些熱切地想要買入Facebook股票的投資者也不太可能買到他們想要的股票數量。除E*Trade Financial之外，此次IPO的承銷團隊的主要成員包括華爾街巨頭摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)、摩根大通(JP Morgan Chase)和高盛(Goldman Sachs)。

According to various reports, there is a significant contrast between individual investors and users of Facebook for its IPO and a more measured response of institutional pros. As Barron's Andrew Bary wrote, Facebook shares were projected to fetch 70 times earnings and 18 times revenues -- before the anticipated price range was increased. By contrast, Google (GOOG) trades at 15 times anticipated 2012 earnings while Apple (AAPL) trades at a below-market 12 times earnings.

多篇報道說，散戶投資者、Facebook用戶對這次IPO的看法同機構投資者之間有着較大的反差，後者的反應更爲剋制。正如《巴倫週刊》的Andrew Bary所寫，在預期發行價區間沒有上調之前，Facebook的預期市值就將達到利潤的70倍和收入的18倍。相比之下，谷歌相對於2012年預期利潤的市盈率爲15倍，而蘋果的市盈率只有12倍，低於市場平均水平。

Clearly, rational investors aren't driving the frenzy for Facebook. But the similarity to the hysteria that accompanies a lottery drawing as the jackpot builds is palpable. 'You gotta be in it to win it' goes the pitch, and folks drive across state lines to queue up to buy chances that are the longest of long shots.

顯然，並不是理性投資者掀起了人們對Facebook的狂熱。但可以感覺到，這與累積賭注不斷上升時人們買彩票的那種病態興奮何其相似。廣告語說得好：不試怎麼能中呢？於是大家開着汽車長途奔波去排隊購買小得不能再小的中獎概率。

It would appear the same lottery-playing attitude has returned for the Facebook IPO, at least among frenzied individual investors clamoring to get in on the deal without regard to the price, valuation or even knowing what that means. It's also unlikely that these Facebook fans are aware or care that their demand for more shares was being accommodated by insiders looking to cash out during the frenzy.

看來，至少對於那些堅持要參與Facebook的IPO而不顧價格、估值，甚至不知這些概念什麼意思的狂熱散戶投資者來說，買彩票的那種勁頭又出現在了這宗IPO案之中。這些Facebook迷也不太可能知道或在意，滿足他們對更多股票需求的，其實是等着利用這股狂熱勁套現的內部人。

Nor is it likely that it matters that shares of the companies they also like -- such as Apple and Google -- are off 15% and 6%, respectively, from their highs even though they have hugely more attractive valuations. Or that a once-hot IPO, such as Groupon (GRPN), can drop by more than half from its peak once it cools off.

還有一種情況也是不太可能引起這些人重視的：他們同樣喜歡的蘋果和谷歌，儘管估值比Facebook誘人得多，股價卻已分別從高點回落15%和6%。還有，曾經紅極一時的新股在冷卻下來時可能會從峯值下跌一半以上，Groupon就是一個例子。

It's one thing to throw a few bucks into office pool to play Mega-Millions. But there are anecdotes of parents seeking to put their kids college funds into the Facebook IPO. You've got to wonder how many of those desperate for a piece of Facebook see it as a way to pay down their student loans.

扔幾塊錢到賭池裏玩一把“超級百萬”(Mega-Millions)是完全不同的另一回事。不過，有傳聞說有些父母打算把孩子上大學的基金投入到Facebook的IPO當中。你不禁會想，有多少急於投資Facebook的人把這當作是償還助學貸款的一種方式呢。

For the longer term, it's not clear that the Facebook IPO will change the disaffected attitudes of individual investors. Or even that they will want to get in on other big debut offerings, as did the IPO punters of the dot-com era who always were hoping to score with the 'next Netscape' or 'next Yahoo! ' (YHOO.) Or that Facebook bulls know the history of these once-hot companies.

從更長遠來看，不清楚Facebbok的IPO會不會改變散戶投資者的不滿情緒，甚至也不清楚他們會不會希望再去買另一家大公司的新股。在當年的網絡泡沫時代，IPO賭客就是一直在等着投資“下一個網景”或“下一個雅虎”。同樣不清楚的是，看多Facebook的人是否知道這些曾經紅極一時的公司有着怎樣的歷史。

For this crowd, it's all about just one thing, scoring Facebook shares, which are almost sure to pop Friday when they begin trading. After that, let's see if they're convinced that long-term investing is the road to wealth. 這一羣人所關注的不外乎就是買不買得到Facebook的股票，因爲週五開始交易的時候，該股股價幾乎肯定是要上漲。在這過後，讓我們看看他們是不是相信長線投資纔是致富之路。