埃博拉傳播地圖: 英法危險大 中國暫無憂大綱
Ebola already reached the US when a patient was diagnosed in Texas on September 30. But where is the disease likely to go next? A map from MOBS Lab and Northeastern University shows the risks.
9月30日美國德克薩斯州的一名病人被確診後，這意味着可怕的埃博拉病毒已經擴散到了美國。那麼接下來埃博拉最可能擴散到哪個國家呢？美國東北大學生物和社會技術系統模擬實驗室的研究人員計算並製作了一張圖表。
To develop these estimates, researchers used a computer model that tracks the frequency of international traffic to different countries, the progression of the disease in already affected countries, and the incubation time and other aspects of Ebola. The estimates will be updated as the epidemic continues.
爲了得出這些預測，研究人員們使用計算機模型追蹤自病原區西非向其他國家發出航班的頻率、已受感染地區的疫情發展情況，以及埃博拉病毒的潛伏期等其他方面。這些預測信息會隨疫情的發展而即時更新。
Outside of Africa, the risk is relatively high in the UK and France, but thankfully very low in India and China. The more advanced health-care systems in the UK and France are much better equipped to deal with an Ebola outbreak, while less advanced systems in China and particularly India, which also have considerably bigger populations to manage, could struggle to deal with an epidemic.
除了非洲地區，受埃博拉感染危險度較高的是英國和法國，相對較安全的是印度和中國。但是英國和法國的醫療保健系統更先進，所以對埃博拉疫情的防護可能也會更有效。而相比之下，中國尤其是印度的醫療保健體系不夠完善，且國家人口數量龐大，因此不能對埃博拉掉以輕心。
Peter Piot, who helped discover and name the virus, told the Guardian about his concerns with an outbreak in India:
發現並對埃博拉命名的彼得•派奧特表示了他對印度地區爆發疫情的擔憂：
But an outbreak in Europe or North America would quickly be brought under control. I am more worried about the many people from India who work in trade or industry in west Africa. It would only take one of them to become infected, travel to India to visit relatives during the virus's incubation period, and then, once he becomes sick, go to a public hospital there. Doctors and nurses in India, too, often don't wear protective gloves. They would immediately become infected and spread the virus.
“如果在歐洲或是北美爆發疫情則可以很快控制住。我更擔心的是那些在西非工作或做生意的印度人。只要這其中有一個人受到感染，之後在潛伏期之內回印度探親，這時候一旦他表現出症狀，他就會去公共醫院就醫。而印度的醫生和護士也都沒有穿着防護服。他們可能會立刻受到感染並傳染給其他人。”
As Vox's Julia Belluz previously explained, this is one of the nightmare Ebola scenarios that keeps scientists up at night. It's good, then, that the chance of Ebola spreading to India and China seems fairly remote.
正如VOX的茱莉亞之前解釋過的那樣，這種關於埃博拉擴散的假設是困擾研究人員的噩夢之一。還好，目前看來埃博拉病毒擴散至印度和中國的機會還比較小。
