泰坦尼克號沉沒原因新解 氣候異常
The reason the Titanic hit an iceberg and sunk has been hotly debated for the past century.
在過去的一個世紀裏，人們對泰坦尼克號的沉沒原因議論紛紛。
While some say it was due to human error, others say the unusual appearance of a large iceberg in a region of the Atlantic Ocean was the main factor.
有些人認爲是人爲原因所致，而有些人則認爲是大西洋海域出現的冰山異常所致。
But now a paper claims it was not one or the other, but rather adverse weather conditions that drove icebergs south farther than usual.
但是最近一篇研究否定了兩者，認爲當時惡劣的天氣狀況造成的冰山位置比以往偏南，導致了事故的發生。
The paper 'The iceberg risk in the Titanic year of 1912' was published in the journal Significance.
這篇題爲“1912年泰坦尼克號遭遇的冰山風險”的論文發表在Significance期刊上。
It describes how the distance the iceberg that sunk the Titanic had drifted south was much farther than would have been expected at the time.
論文中稱當時泰坦尼克號撞上的那座冰山所在位置比往年偏南，並給出了偏離的具體距離。
While they admit stresses on the crew might have been a factor, they say the surprising appearance of such a large iceberg meant the ship’s fate was down to poor luck.
文中還提到，雖然船上工作人員的失職也是一個原因，但是突然出現的巨大冰山似乎也預示了泰坦尼克號命中註定的厄運了。
‘It is most likely that a combination of human errors associated with the captain not reducing speed - despite a number of ice reports reaching the vessel in the days before the collision - and possible variable rivet quality in the hull manufacture led to the tragedy,’ the authors write.
“船長在已知撞擊冰山的前幾天船身就已經觸碰到一些冰塊的情況下仍未減速，以及船體制造上可能存在的質量問題，這大概就是釀成這場悲劇的人爲因素。”作者在這篇論文中寫道。
‘However, the question has often been raised: was the Titanic unlucky in sailing in a year with exceptional iceberg numbers?’
“然後問題就來了‘泰坦尼克號這麼倒黴真是因爲它出航的那一年冰山數量異常偏高嗎’。”
While today there is an extensive ice harzard warning service in the northwest Atlantic, provided by the International Ice Patrol (IIP), in 1912 ships relied on largely on information from others at sea.
雖然現在在大西洋西北部有國際巡冰隊（IIP）提供的冰山預警服務信息，但在1912年輪船能依靠的只有其他在海上航行的輪船所提供的信息。
In early April 1912 a number of icebergs had been reported in the northwest Atlantic, which suggests it may have been an exceptional year for icebergs - although not a record.
1912年4月初出現在大西洋西北部被報告的冰山數量，雖然不是最高值，但確實異常的高於往年。
The IIP monitors icebergs by the number that drift south below the 48°N line called the I48N, which runs from Newfoundland to 40°W.
國際巡冰隊的監控區域包括被稱爲148N的北緯48度以南也就是從紐芬蘭島到西經40度的海域漂浮的冰山數量。
This includes any iceberg greater than 16 feet (5m) in above-surface length.
任何高於海平面16英尺（約5米）以上的冰山都在監控之內。
In 1912 1,038 icebergs are thought to have crossed the line - a large number, but not the most on record.
1912年超過這個高度的冰山數量有1038個，這已經高出常年值很多，但並不是史上最多的。
In 2009, for example, over 1,200 icebergs were seen to cross the I48N.
比如2009年這個數值爲1200個。‘The iceberg risk in 1912, in terms of number entering the northwest Atlantic shipping lanes, was therefore large, but not unprecedented,’ the authors write.
作者還在論文中寫道：“1912年存在的冰山風險，從大西洋西北部海域上存在的冰山數量來說，是很大的，但也並非前所未有。”
Icebergs, however, generally lose most of their size while drifting south.
但是這些冰山在向南漂浮的過程中改變了原來的大小。
It is thought that the Titanic iceberg was up to 605ft (185m) deep and about 410ft (125m) long, quite large for one so far south.
有人認爲導致泰坦尼克號沉船的這塊冰山深度達605英尺（約185米），長度爲410英尺（約125米），這對於一座南移了這麼多的冰山來說已經夠大了。
The reason for this, the authors say, was because high pressure dominated the mid-latitude, central Atlantic atmosphere for several days in 1912.
作者稱，1912年冰山出現異常是連續多日控制在中緯度、大西洋中部的高氣壓氣流所致。
This led to winds carrying freezing air from northeastern Canada over the western Atlantic south of Newfoundland and, in turn, led to icebergs being transferred further south than normal for that time of year.
這導致夾帶冷空氣的大風從加拿大西北部刮過大西洋西部和紐芬蘭島的南部，繼而使得冰山向南漂浮。
Indeed, the distance south this particular iceberg travelled while maintaining the bulk of its size was largely unusual, despite being in a year with not a record number of icebergs.
確實，無論是這塊冰山向南偏離的距離，還是它的體積，雖然都不是記錄最高值，但都遠遠異於常年值。
‘Thus, two unfavourable factors had combined: there were a greater (though not exceptionally greater) number of icebergs than normal that year; and weather conditions had driven them further south, and earlier in the year, than was usual,’ the authors write. They add, however: ‘We may add a third: the stresses on the crew of the Titanic’s maiden voyage.’
“所以，事故發生當時有兩個不利因素：一是遠高於往年的冰山數量（但未破紀錄值），二是天氣狀況導致的冰山位置異常偏南。”作者寫道，並補充說：“當然還有另一個因素：泰坦尼克的首次航行給船上工作人員帶來的壓力。”
