金融雙語閱讀：“麥當勞式經銷”傷及中國汽車業利潤率
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Starbucks, McDonald’s and KFC outlets are all too common sights in towns and cities across much of the world. 在世界許多地方的大小城鎮，幾乎到處都能看到星巴克(Starbucks)、麥當勞(McDonald's)和肯德基(KFC)的門店。
But in China, it seems, you are just as likely to run into a car Dealership selling the wares of one of the country’s best-selling auto manufacturers. 但在中國，同樣尋常可見的似乎是中國幾大暢銷車品牌的經銷商。
According to calculations by Robin Zhu, a senior analyst at Bernstein, GM, VW Group and Nissan have 8,400 dealerships in China between them, within a whisker of the 8,600 McDonald’s, KFCs and Starbucks outlets the Middle Kingdom boasts, as the first chart shows. 根據伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)高級分析師Robin Zhu的估算，通用汽車(GM)、大衆汽車集團(VW Group)和日產(Nissan)在中國合計有8400家經銷商，與這個“中央王國”擁有的麥當勞、肯德基和星巴克門店數量(合計爲8600家)相差無幾。
And that is not taking into account the 5,100 dealerships in the distribution networks of five other foreign auto manufacturers: Honda, Toyota, PSA Peugeot Citro?n, Ford and Hyundai. 這還沒算上本田(Honda)、豐田(Toyota)、標緻雪鐵龍(PSA Peugeot Citro?n)、福特(Ford)和現代(Hyundai)這五家外國汽車製造商分銷網絡中的5100家經銷商。
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Mr Zhu wonders if this might be too many, suggesting this “McDealering” could be a “catalyst for chaos” in 2016. Robin Zhu質疑這是不是有點太多了(他有這種想法或許並不令人意外)，稱這種“麥當勞式經銷”(McDealering)可能會在2016年“催生混亂”。
“Do Chinese cities really need as many car dealers as fast food restaurants? We think these numbers highlight just how large and dense the dealer networks have become, and the extent to which over-penetration has become a problem,” he says. 他說：“中國城市真的需要和快餐店一樣多的汽車經銷商嗎?我們認爲這些數字突顯出，經銷商網絡已變得多麼龐大和密集，‘過度覆蓋’的問題已變得多麼嚴重。
“[This] over-dealering represents one of the most significant challenges for pricing and profitability in the Chinese auto industry, and one of the most under-appreciated structural issues among investors.” “(這種)經銷商過多的局面代表着中國汽車業定價和盈利能力面臨的最嚴峻挑戰之一，也代表着投資者普遍嚴重低估的一個結構性問題。”
One of Bernstein’s concerns is that the proximity of many dealerships is encouraging buyers to play them off against each other, eroding retail pricing power. This danger is exacerbated by the presence of intra-brand competition, where two or more chains of dealers compete head-to-head. 伯恩斯坦關注的一點是，許多經銷商彼此離得太近，導致買家可以挑動它們鷸蚌相爭，零售定價能力因此受到削弱。品牌內部競爭(即同品牌下的兩家或多家經銷商網絡互相搶生意)的存在，更是加劇了這種風險。
In Beijing for instance, two of the three largest dealer networks sell Volkswagens: FAW VW and Shanghai VW, both joint ventures with Chinese state-owned manufacturers, as the second chart shows. 例如，在北京，三個最大的經銷商網絡當中，有兩個是賣大衆汽車的：一汽大衆(FAW-Volkswagen)和上海大衆(Shanghai Volkswagen)。這兩家都是大衆與中國國有製造商組建的合資企業。
This problem is not limited to megacities such as Beijing, where Bernstein counts 391 dealerships among the top 21 brands, and Shanghai, with 344 dealers. 這個問題不止限於北京和上海等特大型城市——伯恩斯坦估計，21個最知名品牌在北京有391家經銷商，在上海有344家。
Even in cities it dubs Tier 2 and 3, it found each of these 21 brands had an average of 4 outlets per city, with Shanghai VW typically having seven or eight a city and FAW VW five or six (in addition to another six or seven for VW Group’s Skoda and Audi marques). 伯恩斯坦發現，即便在它所謂的二三線城市，這21個品牌平均每個品牌在每個城市也有四家經銷商，上海大衆在每個城市通常有七八家，一汽大衆有五六家(這還不包括大衆集團旗下斯柯達(Skoda)和奧迪(Audi)品牌擁有的六七家)。
“Cannibalisation amongst dealers was one of the main contributors to declining retail pricing over the summer of 2015 as dealers of the same brand increasingly tried to undercut one another, and looks set to remain a risk,” says Mr Zhu. Robin Zhu表示：“經銷商之間互相搶生意是導致2015年夏零售定價能力不斷下降的主要原因之一，同一品牌旗下的經銷商越來越多地試圖彼此殺價。這種風險似乎將持續存在。”
As EM Squared reported this month, car sales in China are currently strong, with a temporary tax cut helping push light vehicle sales to a record high of 24.2m (on a seasonally adjusted annual basis) in November, underlining the country’s position as the world’s largest market. 正如本月另一篇報道《中國驅動全球汽車銷量增長》所述，眼下中國車市興旺，一項臨時的減稅政策幫助推動11月輕型車銷量(以經季節性因素調整後的年化銷量計)達到創紀錄的2420萬輛，有力地彰顯出了中國的全球最大汽車市場地位。
Bernstein argues that expectations of strong sales growth have drowned out concerns about overcapacity, but that the dealer network “remains unsustainable”, with more than 26,000 dealers at the end of 2014 — 60 per cent more than in the US. 伯恩斯坦辯稱，儘管對銷售將強勁增長的預期淹沒了對銷售能力過剩的擔憂，但這樣的經銷商網絡“仍是不可持續的”——截至2014年底，中國有逾2.6萬家經銷商，比美國多60%。
Indeed, while the US has about 13,000 Starbucks outlets and 12,800 McDonald’s restaurants, the number of Ford dealerships is less than 3,500. Toyota, the world’s largest car company by unit sales, has 1,750 outlets in the US and Canada. 確實，儘管美國有大約1.3萬家星巴克門店和1.28萬家麥當勞餐廳，但福特經銷商的數量不足3500家。按銷量計爲全球最大汽車公司的豐田，在美國和加拿大有1750家經銷商。
Mr Zhu goes as far as to claim that running a Chinese dealer is increasingly akin to a “McJob” — unstimulating, low-paid and with few prospects — and this in turn is ”putting off Chinese entrepreneurs”. Robin Zhu甚至表示，在中國經營一家經銷店越來越像是在麥當勞工作——沒勁、薪酬低，也沒啥前途——這反過來“讓中國人不願經營經銷店”。
With new car profitability “looking permanently impaired” and after-sale service margins now “under attack” following a market liberalisation that allowed consumers to service their cars at a non-franchise location during the warranty period, he believes a crunch may be looming for manufacturers. 新車盈利能力“似乎受到了永久性損害”，而市場自由化使得消費者能夠在保修期間在非4S店做保養，經銷店的售後服務利潤率正“受到衝擊”。考慮到這些因素，Robin Zhu認爲汽車製造商可能即將遭遇危機。
“We expect many to face the unpalatable choice of accepting shrinking distribution scale, impacting sales, or financially supporting hundreds of increasingly challenged dealers, impacting pricing and profitability,” says Mr Zhu. 他表示：“我們預計許多汽車製造商將面臨無奈的選擇，要麼接受分銷網絡規模縮水的局面，要麼向成百上千日益面臨挑戰的經銷商提供財務支持，前者影響銷售，後者損害定價和盈利能力。
“Returns in the market may be about to fall irreversibly.” “市場回報率可能即將不可逆轉地下降。”
GM, VW and Nissan all declined to comment. 通用、大衆和日產均拒絕置評。
