無人機行業能否安全起飛
This month an autonomous drone made a 13-minute flight over the British countryside to drop off an Amazon television-streaming stick and a bag of popcorn to a customer near Cambridge.
上個月，一架自動無人機在英國鄉村上空飛行13分鐘，給一位劍橋附近的客戶遞送了一部亞馬遜(Amazon)流媒體電視棒和一袋爆米花。At one level, the delivery was little more than a quirky publicity stunt to demonstrate the potential of technology. But it also confirmed Amazon’s deadly serious intent to develop a delivery infrastructure that could yet revolutionise the logistics industry.
從一個層面來看，這次投遞只是一次新奇的宣傳手段，展示了科技的潛力。但它也證實，亞馬遜極其嚴肅的開發遞送基礎設施的意願可能會給物流行業帶來革命。“I know this looks like science fiction. It’s not,” Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder, told a television interviewer in 2013, revealing the company’s drones programme. “It will work, and it will happen, and it’s gonna be a lot of fun.”
“我知道這看上去像是科幻小說。並非如此。”亞馬遜創始人傑夫•貝索斯(Jeff Bezos)在2013年的一次電視採訪中透露了該公司的無人機計劃，他告訴採訪者，“它是可行的，它會實現的，它會帶來很多樂趣。”
The holy grail of the logistics industry has always been to solve the “last mile” challenge, the trickiest and most expensive link in the delivery chain. Amazon Prime Air could be part of the solution. Drone operators claim their deliveries can be quicker, safer and greener than most other options.
物流行業的終極難題一直是解決“最後一英里”挑戰，這是遞送鏈最複雜且成本最高的一環。亞馬遜Prime Air可能是這個解決方案的一部分。無人機運營商聲稱，與多數其他選擇相比，無人機送貨可能會更快、更安全且更環保。If the necessary infrastructure were in place, drones could be used for the bulk of Amazon’s deliveries. According to Mr Bezos, Amazon’s drones can deliver packages weighing up to 5lb (a little over 2kg), covering 86 per cent of the items it delivers.
如果必要的基礎設施到位，可以用無人機完成亞馬遜的絕大多數投遞業務。貝索斯表示，亞馬遜的無人機可以遞送最重5磅（2公斤多一點）的貨物，可以滿足其遞送商品的86%。The critical question is whether that infrastructure will ever be built. Will we allow the mass use of commercial drones over populated areas? Can we envisage a day when thousands of commercial drones buzz through our cities delivering parcels to specially designated drop-off points on rooftops and in car parks?
關鍵的問題是這些基礎設施是否會建立起來。我們是否會允許在人口稠密的地區大規模使用商用無人機？我們能否設想有一天數千架商用無人機嗡嗡地飛過城市上空，把包裹投遞到屋頂和停車場的專用降落點？In many countries, we are at the beginning of a fumbling triangular dance between operators, regulators and the public about the safety and acceptability of such deliveries.
在很多國家，運營商、監管者和公衆圍繞這種快遞方式的安全性和可接受性的笨拙角力剛剛開始。Operators argue that commercial drones have been successfully used for years in sparsely populated areas of the world. In the early 1980s the Japanese pioneered the use of drones to spray pesticides on rice fields. Energy companies regularly use drones to survey remote oil pipelines, damaged power lines and wind turbines.
運營商辯稱，商用無人機在全球人口稀少的地區已成功使用多年。上世紀80年代初，日本率先使用無人機向稻田噴灑殺蟲劑。能源公司經常利用無人機勘察遙遠的石油管線、受損的電力線路和風力渦輪。Their use is particularly effective in parts of the developing world where drones can leapfrog poor conventional infrastructure. Rural parts of Rwanda are already benefiting from drone-delivered, time-sensitive medicines.
這些用途在發展中國家一些地區尤爲有效，在那裏無人機可以超越薄弱的傳統基礎設施。盧旺達的農村地區已受益於用無人機投遞有時效性的藥品。A recent report by PwC highlighted the speed at which the industry is developing, identifying 200 drone manufacturers globally. “The drone sector is on the verge of becoming a mass industry, with enormous potential to disrupt various types of business,” it concluded.
普華永道(PwC)最近的一份報告突顯出該行業發展的速度，報告確定全球有200家無人機制造商。報告總結稱：“無人機行業正接近成爲一個大規模行業，有着顛覆各種行業的巨大潛力。”But allowing autonomous commercial drones to deliver customers’ parcels in cities would cross a perception threshold. It would certainly be the most visible — and possibly controversial — use of the technology so far.
但允許自動商用無人機在城市遞送客戶包裹將跨越一個認知門檻。這肯定是迄今這項技術最明顯也最可能備受爭議的用途。Regulators in some countries, such as the UK, Japan and Poland, are adopting an accommodating approach, encouraging drone operators to experiment provided they meet defined safety standards. However, other countries — most notably the US — are far more cautious about whether to allow operators to fly autonomous drones beyond the line of sight.
英國、日本和波蘭等一些國家的監管機構正採取包容政策，一旦無人機運營商符合規定的安全標準，就鼓勵它們進行試驗。然而其他國家（特別是美國）對於是否允許運營商讓自動無人機飛到視線以外要謹慎得多。Ed Leon Klinger, chief executive of Flock, an early stage start-up company serving the drone industry, says the UK is at the forefront of global thinking on commercial drone use. “The drone industry is developing at an incredible pace. We will see drones in cities within three years,” he predicts.
爲無人機行業提供服務的早期初創企業Flock的首席執行官埃德•萊昂•克林格(Ed Leon Klinger)表示，英國處於商用無人機應用全球思考的前沿。他預測：“無人機行業正以驚人的速度發展。我們將在3年內在城市看到無人機。”His company, which provides real-time data analytics on weather and traffic conditions to operators, enables drones to fly more safely and smartly in cities and helps insurance companies price risk.
他的公司向無人機運營商提供有關天氣和交通狀況的實時數據分析，能夠確保無人機在城市更安全和更智能地飛行，並幫助保險公司爲風險定價。Even though regulators and operators are learning to bump along together, the public appears to be trailing a long way behind. One of the commercial drone industry’s biggest fears is that irresponsible hobbyists will destroy public trust in the technology before responsible operators can prove themselves. Public concern is rising about how hobbyist drones have been used to snoop on neighbours, deliver drugs to prisoners and endanger aircraft. Securityservices are already installing “geofences” around sensitive sites
儘管監管機構和運營商正共同探索，但公衆的意識似乎遠遠落後。商用無人機行業的最大擔憂之一是，在負責任的運營商能夠證明自己之前，不負責任的愛好者會破壞公衆對於這項技術的信任。公衆對於愛好者利用無人機窺探鄰居、爲犯人遞送毒品並危及飛機安全的擔憂正在加劇。安全機構已在敏感地區設置“地理柵欄”，阻止無人機飛越上空。
