有關鋰的炒作合理嗎 Lithium: is the hype justified

After two years of unrelenting gloom it is good to see that at least one part of the global energy business is booming. The price of lithium carbonate in China has risen by 253 per cent in the past year and there is intense takeover activity among the limited number of companies that control lithium production. Goldman Sachs has called lithium “the new gasoline”. Is the hype justified?

在被陰霾無情籠罩兩年後，能看到全球能源業至少有一部分開始蓬勃發展實屬好事。過去一年，中國碳酸鋰價格上漲了253%，同時有限幾家控制鋰鹽生產的企業之間展開了密集的收購活動。高盛(Goldman Sachs)把鋰稱爲“新的汽油”。這種炒作有道理嗎？

Lithium is a soft white metal that provides a small but for the moment essential element in battery technology. Production comes from mineral rock or from salt water, with supplies concentrated in Argentina, Australia, China, Chile and the US state of Nevada. That production is controlled by a very small number of companies, led by Albemarle, FMC and Chile’s Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) in Chile. Between them they produced 90 per cent of total supplies outside China last year.

鋰是一種軟質的白色金屬，是電池技術中一種含量很少但目前不可或缺的要素。鋰鹽出產於礦石或鹹水，儲量集中在阿根廷、澳大利亞、中國、智利和美國內華達州。鋰鹽生產由極少數公司控制，其中以Albemarle、FMC以及智利的Sociedad Quimicay Minera(SQM)公司爲首。去年，它們生產了中國以外90%的鋰供應量。

Recently Citic, the Chinese company, has been showing a very strong interest in SQM — as well as buying the leading electric vehicle manufacturer in Hong Kong.

近來，中國企業中信(Citic)在收購香港領先電動汽車製造商的同時，對SQM表現出了非常濃厚的興趣。

Lithium-based batteries typically store three times more energy, and have a higher energy density to weight ratio, than any existing alternative. This makes them attractive for a range of products, including mobile phones and computers, but also for the larger batteries used to power vehicles. The volumes of lithium involved are small, and output from the top five producing countries in 2014 amounted only to 35,000 tonnes. So, in terms of scale, lithium is hardly the new petrol. Goldman Sachs would be more credible if it cut out the marketing hype.

通常鋰電池的儲電量是現有可替代品的4倍，同時它的能量密度與重量之比更高。這使得鋰電池不僅對手機、電腦等一系列產品頗具吸引力，還成爲驅動汽車所需的大型電池的合適選擇。目前鋰的產量和使用量很少，2014年五大生產國的鋰產量僅爲3.5萬噸。因此，就規模而言，鋰很難說是新型汽油。如果高盛刪掉這句營銷炒作，它的話會更加可信。

The increase in the lithium price is explained by a surge in demand driven by the growth in the number of electric vehicles. For as long as I can remember electric vehicles have been about to break through and to take a significant share of the world market for light vehicles. The reality has repeatedly lagged behind expectations. Despite many attempts — remember bankrupted American-Israeli start-up Better Place? — and much public policy support there were only 665,000 electric vehicles in operation at the end of 2014, according to a recent authoritative study by the International Energy Agency. In almost every country expansion has been limited by the costs of the vehicles and by the limitations of recharging facilities.

鋰金屬價格上漲的原因在於電動汽車數量增長推動需求上漲。在我記憶中，電動汽車一直處於即將突破、並將要在全球輕型汽車市場中佔據重要份額的階段。然而，現實一直趕不上預期。儘管有過很多嘗試——還記得已經破產的美國-以色列初創企業Better Place嗎？——還出臺了很多公共政策扶持，但根據國際能源署(IEA)近期公佈的權威調查顯示，截至2014年底電動車保有量僅爲66.5萬輛。幾乎在所有國家，電動汽車的普及都受到成本和配套充電設施的限制。

But the market is changing. According to the latest reports, there have been almost400,000 orders of the new Tesla model, at a cost of $35,000 each. After a long period during which China failed to establish a significant electric vehicle market, sales rose fourfold in 2015 to over 300,000. The problems and the prospects are described in an interesting new study from McKinsey. China’s ambition in this area appears to be significantly increased and the country’s official 12th five-year plan sets a target of 5m electric vehicles on the road by 2020.

但是，該市場正發生改變。據最新報道稱，特斯拉(Tesla)新款車型（價格爲3.5萬美元）的訂單量已達到近40萬。中國在努力了很久卻一直未能建立可觀的電動汽車市場後，2015年電動汽車銷量增長了3倍，達到30萬輛以上。麥肯錫(McKinsey)在其一份有趣的新研究中描述了該市場的問題和前景。中國在該領域的雄心似乎明顯加大，其官方十二五計劃制定了在2020年電動汽車保有量達到500萬輛的目標。

In terms of the overall car market this is still fractional. At the end of 2014 electric vehicles accounted for just 0.02 per cent of the global total. Total global car sales in 2015 amounted to 74m — the overwhelming majority using internal combustion engines. On most measures electric vehicles are still not competitive, even with high levels of fiscal subsidy in place. A big change in costs, or mandatory regulation, is needed if they are really going to penetrate the market.

相對整體汽車市場，這仍然微不足道。2014年底，電動汽車佔全球汽車總量的比例僅爲0.02%。2015年，全球汽車總銷量達到7400萬輛——絕大部分汽車使用的都是內燃機。按多數衡量標準，電動汽車仍然不具有競爭力，即便是在享受高額財政補貼的情況下也是如此。要讓電動汽車真正打開市場，在成本或強制性規定方面需要做出重大改變。

This is the context in which to judge the hype around lithium. The price of lithium will rise as demand for electric vehicles and the batteries that power them increases. But there is a limit. We do not yet know how much extra lithium can be produced. The competition for known existing resources suggests there are serious constraints. If that is so lithium will become more expensive to the point at which its cost becomes a barrier and a constraint on electric vehicle sales. That in turn can only hasten the process of substitution — the development of materials that can displace lithium in batteries. Markets always have ceilings set by the ability and willingness of consumers to pay what is being asked, and by ever advancing technology. Petrol is a prime example of a product that keeps selling in vast quantities because it is readily available and its price is not too high.

這是判斷有關鋰的炒作是否合理的大環境。隨着市場對電動汽車及其電池的需求增加，鋰的價格將會上漲。但這是有限度的。我們尚不清楚鋰產量還能增加多少。對已探明現有資源的競爭似乎表明，存在着嚴重製約。若果真如此，鋰將日趨昂貴，以至於其成本將成爲電動汽車銷量的障礙和制約。這進而只會加速替代品的發展進程——研發出可以在電池中取代鋰的材料。市場的天花板總是由消費者支付所報價格的能力和意願、由不斷向前發展的技術所決定的。供應穩定且價格不是過高的產品能夠保持巨大銷量，汽油就是最好的例子。

At the moment lithium is one of the very few commodities for which there is an increase in price. The existing owners are no doubt dining out on the increased economic rents they are collecting. They should enjoy the good times while they last.

眼下，鋰是少數幾種價格上漲的大宗商品之一。現在擁有鋰資源的企業無疑正享受着日益攀升的經濟租金。他們應該在美好時光還未結束之前抓緊享受。