安倍:權威受損,但仍難以取代

It should have been a bad week for Shinzo Abe, Japanese prime minister, and a better one for Renho Murata, his chief opponent.

過去一週對日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)來說本應該是糟糕的一週，而對其主要對手村田蓮舫(Renho Murata)本應該更順利。

Over two days of testimony in parliament, Mr Abe contradicted himself about his memory of a cronyism scandal, even as a key figure in a different scandal linked to the prime minister was hauled in for questioning by prosecutors over fraud allegations. Yet with her foe on the ropes, it was opposition leader Ms Murata who on Thursday chose to resign.

在爲期兩天的國會作證期間，安倍在回憶自己任人唯親的醜聞時自相矛盾，與此同時與安倍有關的另一起醜聞中的一名關鍵人物因詐騙指控受到檢方訊問。不過，在對手岌岌可危的情況下，上週四選擇辭職的卻是反對黨領袖村田蓮舫。

Mr Abe’s approval rating has in just a few months plunged from a comfortable 60 per cent to 33 per cent — perilously close to levels that have done for previous Japanese prime ministers. But Ms Murata’s exit over the dismal poll ratings of her own Democratic party shows why most political observers expect Mr Abe to survive: there is simply no viable alternative.

短短几個月，安倍的支持率從令人安心的60%驟跌至33%——危險地接近終結前幾位日本首相任期的水平。但村田蓮舫因日本民進黨(Democratic party)低迷的支持率而退出，表明了爲什麼多數政治觀察人士預計安倍晉三會挺過這輪危機：日本根本沒有可行的替代人選。

The scandals that have badly hurt Mr Abe involve a pair of private school operators, with links to the prime minister, that won public favours. In both cases there are signs that officials acted, even without any direct order from the top, in order to please the boss. By themselves, however, the cases are not that terrible. Indeed, Mr Abe’s approval rating held up well for many months as they rumbled on.

重創安倍的醜聞涉及與首相有關聯的兩個私立學校經營者曾經受到公共部門的照顧。兩起個案都有跡象顯示，官員們爲了取悅領導而採取行動，即使沒有來自高層的直接命令也是如此。然而，這些個案本身沒那麼糟糕。的確，在事件發酵的幾個月裏，安倍的支持率保持得不錯。

What has damaged him is a poisonous air of arrogance as Mr Abe has shrugged off questions, ignored ministerial gaffes, and led his party to a resounding defeat in Tokyo city elections. The public has never loved Mr Abe, whose air of entitlement has always rankled. But they have liked the stability he has brought since 2012. Whenever that stability wobbles, he is quickly vulnerable.

重創安倍的是一種有毒的傲慢氣息：他對合理的問題不屑一顧，忽視部長級官員的過失，最終領導他的政黨在東京市選舉中潰敗。日本公衆從來都不喜歡安倍，他那種頤指氣使的作風始終令人不爽。但他們喜歡自2012年以來安倍帶來的穩定。一旦那種穩定開始動搖，他很快就會陷入脆弱境地。

What keeps him safe is the lack of an alternative, whether within his party or without. Ms Murata — who goes by her first name, Renho — was its most recognisable figure in the DP. But riven by deep internal splits and with no coherent message, the party currently attracts polling support of just 6 per cent. The ruling Liberal Democratic party can muster 31 per cent, despite Mr Abe’s troubles.

讓他坐穩首相位置的是目前缺少替代人選，無論在黨內還是黨外都是如此。村田蓮舫（通常使用本名“蓮舫”）是民進黨知名度最高的人物。但飽受內部深層次分裂折磨、拿不出一致立場的民進黨，目前的民衆支持率僅爲6%。儘管安倍面臨麻煩，但執政的自民黨(Liberal Democratic Party)仍然獲得31%的支持率。

More threatening opponents lurk within the LDP. As Mr Abe has stumbled, factions within his own party have come back to life. However, only former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba is in open rebellion, and he lacks the support to bring down the prime minister. Neither of the other possible successors — foreign minister Fumio Kishida or finance minister Taro Aso — has much to gain from a coup.

更具威脅的對手潛伏在自民黨內部。在安倍踉踉蹌蹌的情況下，其黨內的派系重新顯現。然而，站出來反抗的只有前防衛大臣石破茂(Shigeru Ishiba)，而他缺少推翻安倍所必需的支持。其他可能的繼任者——外務大臣岸田文雄(Fumio Kishida)和財務大臣麻生太郎(Taro Aso)——都不會獲益於跳出來反對安倍。

That leaves Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, Japan’s most popular politician, whose start-up party inflicted a heavy defeat on the LDP in elections to the Tokyo city assembly earlier this month. For all Ms Koike’s popularity, however, she has no national parliamentary platform nor any easy means to gain one.

還有就是日本最受歡迎的政客、東京都知事小池百合子(Yuriko Koike)，她創立的政黨在7月初東京市議會選舉中重挫自民黨。然而，儘管小池百合子人氣高漲，但她不具備國會競選綱領，也沒有輕鬆獲得競選綱領的手段。

All this gives Mr Abe time to recover. Tomomi Inada, the defence minister whose gaffes have cost the government dearly, also resigned on Thursday. An important test of Mr Abe’s strength will be whether he can keep Mr Kishida in the cabinet in a reshuffle expected next week. He could also make a bid for public approval by bringing 36-year-old Shinjiro Koizumi, the popular son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, into his cabinet.

這一切都給了安倍恢復元氣的時間。防衛大臣稻田朋美(Tomomi Inada)的過失使政府損失慘重，她已於上週四辭職。對安倍實力的重要測驗將是，他能否在預計於本週進行的內閣重組中保住岸田文雄。他也可能讓36歲的小泉進次郎(Shinjiro Koizumi)——人氣頗高的前首相小泉純一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)之子——進入內閣，以爭取公衆的支持。

But the deeper problem for Mr Abe is that his government is losing momentum and purpose. It is a long time since he passed a meaningful economic reform. The more the prime minister triangulates to maintain support, the harder it is to do anything meaningful. His push to reform the pacifist constitution has failed to bring new energy to his government and reminded the public of his divisive conservative nationalism.

但是安倍面臨的深層次問題是其政府正在失去勢頭和目的。自他推動通過有意義的經濟改革方案以來，已經過去了很長一段時間。這位首相越是想方設法維持支持率，就越難有所作爲。他改革日本和平憲法的努力非但未能爲其政府注入新的活力，反而提醒公衆警惕他那種引發分歧的保守民族主義。

Yet what looks most probable is that challengers to his leadership will stay silent and Mr Abe will drift on until next year, when he must stand for another three-year term at the helm of the LDP. Like Theresa May in the UK, the prime minister’s authority may be leaching away. But to replace him is no simple matter.

不過，看起來最有可能的情況是，有實力挑戰他領導地位的人將保持沉默，而安倍將繼續撐下去，直到明年他必須競選自民黨黨魁的下一個3年任期。就像英國的特里薩?梅(Theresa May)一樣，安倍可能正在慢慢失去權威。但想取代他並非易事。