FBI扔出的郵件調查炸彈威力有多大
No, the Federal Bureau of Investigation is not working for Donald Trump — though Hillary Clinton should be forgiven for suspecting that.
不，聯邦調查局(FBI)不是在給唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)打工，儘管希拉里.克林頓(Hillary Clinton)要這麼猜疑也是情有可原的。
The reality is more troubling.
現實更加令人不安。
James Comey, the FBI director, was panicked into issuing his statement by the opposite fear — that if he had held back Republicans would have accused him of working for Mrs Clinton.
聯邦調查局局長詹姆斯.科米(James Comey)之所以驚慌失措地發表了自己的聲明，是出於相反的顧慮——如果他捂住案情，共和黨人就會指責他爲希拉里工作。
Mr Comey, the fearsome sentinel, has over-reached.
作爲令人生畏的哨兵，科米反應過度了，
Public servants should never take actions that could sway a presidential election.
公務員永遠不應該作出任何可能影響總統大選的舉動。
His lapse was a result of Mr Trump having already singled him out as part of a rigged system.
他之所以有此失誤，是因爲特朗普已經指責他是受操縱的體制中的一員。
In a country so viscerally divided, neutrality is treated as collusion.
在一個嚴重撕裂的國家，中立會被視作同謀。
On Friday Mr Comey was hustled into making an error.
上週五，科米急中犯了錯。
Autocracies are run on fear.
威權政體靠恐懼維繫，
Democracies are held together by trust.
而民主政體靠信任凝聚。
The reckless timing of Mr Comey’s disclosure that he was expanding the investigation into Mrs Clinton’s emails is what happens when officials wobble.
科米公佈他將擴大調查希拉里電子郵件的時機很草率，這是官員們猶疑不決時會發生的典型情況。
If Mr Trump wins next week he has vowed to put Mrs Clinton in jail. His supporters chant lock her up at every rally.
如果特朗普下週獲勝，他已發誓要把希拉里關進監獄，他的支持者在每場集會上都呼喊着把她關起來。
If Mrs Clinton wins, Mr Trump will find more Comeys to intimidate.
如果希拉里贏了，特朗普將找到更多科米作爲恐嚇對象。
When one side in a democracy throws around pre-emptive charges of treason — and there is none higher than rigging a presidential election — the ground on which the law stands shrinks.
當民主政體中的一方先發制人地拋出叛國罪指控——沒什麼比操縱總統大選更嚴重的叛國罪了——法律賴以發揮效力的基礎將萎縮。
It is harder to uphold blind justice, or administer a neutral process, when a storm is blowing around you.
當你被裹挾入一場風暴時，你就很難堅持一視同仁的公正，或堅守中立程序。
Mr Trump’s campaign is a howling gale. Mr Comey just lost his shirt.
特朗普的競選活動就像一場呼嘯的狂風，科米被刮跑了襯衣。
Can Mrs Clinton survive her October surprise? If the question is will she win next week, the answer is still probably yes.
希拉里能挺過這個10月驚奇嗎？如果問題是她能否贏得下週大選，答案很可能依舊是肯定的。
Though it is too soon for polls to measure the impact of Mr Comey’s hand grenade, Mrs Clinton’s lead on Friday was wide enough to sustain a couple of points of damage.
雖然用民調衡量科米這枚手榴彈的影響還爲時過早，但希拉里在上週五的領先優勢大到足以承受幾個百分點的損失。
If the question is whether she could govern, the picture looks different.
但如果問題是她能否治理這個國家，答案就不同了。
Even a 1 per cent swing against Mrs Clinton could tip the race for the US Senate.
即使希拉里支持率有1%的變化，也能左右對參議院的角逐。
Without a Democratic Senate majority, Mrs Clinton’s chances of passing anything will drop.
沒有一個民主黨佔多數席位的參議院，希拉里推動通過任何議案的機率都將下降。
Even before Mr Comey’s Halloween gift, it was likely that Republicans would retain control of the House of Representatives.
即使在科米送出這份萬聖節大禮之前，共和黨人也很可能保留對衆議院的控制。
The largest cost is likely to show up in the wake of a Clinton win.
最大的損失可能要等到希拉里贏得大選後才顯現。
The narrower her margin of victory, the easier it will be for Mr Trump to spark outrage over a stolen election.
她的獲勝優勢越小，特朗普就越容易激發人們對選舉造假的憤恨，
It would also give him more of a grip over Republicans in Congress.
並增加他對國會共和黨人的控制力。
Legislators respond to feedback from their districts.
立法者需對自己選區的民意作出迴應。
By Jeffersonian design, the House is where the link between elected and elector is most electric.
按照托馬斯•傑斐遜（Thomas Jefferson，美國第三任總統——譯者注）的設計，衆議院是民選官員和選民之間關係最具活力的環節。
If Mr Trump’s base is inflamed, Republican legislators will take their cue.
如果特朗普的根基選民被激怒，共和黨立法者將順應民意。
Most of their voters already believe Mrs Clinton is dishonest and corrupt.
絕大多數共和黨選民已經相信希拉里爲人不誠實且腐敗，
It is no great leap to endorsing Mr Trump’s claim that the Clintons are a criminal enterprise.
不需要多大努力就能讓這些人相信特朗普所稱的克林頓夫婦是犯罪企業。
It is hard to talk yourself down from such incendiary language.
這種煽動性言論一旦說出口就很難下臺。
It would be easier were the target anyone other than Mrs Clinton.
如果矛頭指向希拉里之外的任何人，攻擊者自己找臺階下臺還容易一些。
Before re-entering the White House, she would be the most investigated political figure in US history.
在希拉里重返白宮前，她將是美國曆史上被調查最多的政治人物，
Not even her husband has been the subject of this many probes and subpoenas.
連她丈夫都沒受過這麼多調查和傳訊。
If she wins next week, Mrs Clinton will face many more.
如果希拉里下週當選，她將面對更多調查。
With the help of WikiLeaks, Republicans believe they have enough ammunition to open up fresh investigations.
在維基解密(WikiLeaks)的助推下，共和黨人相信他們有充足彈藥展開新的調查。
For ambitious legislators, holding her feet to the coals is a sure-fire route to folk-hero status.
對於雄心勃勃的立法者來說，追究希拉里的過錯是讓自己成爲民間英雄的可靠路徑。
Their unwitting ally is Mrs Clinton herself.
希拉里本人在無意中成爲了他們的盟友。
It is remarkable that she has not yet promised to sever family links to the Clinton Foundation if elected.
值得注意的是，她還未承諾在當選後切斷家庭與克林頓基金會的關係。
At the moment the plan is for Chelsea Clinton to take over its day-to-day running.
目前的計劃是由切爾西.克林頓(Chelsea Clinton)接手克林頓基金會的日常運營。
It is not enough for Caesar’s wife to be clean.
凱撒的妻子是清白的還不夠。
She must be above suspicion.
她必須做到無可懷疑。
The Clinton Foundation fails that test.
克林頓基金會沒有通過測試。
It has taken billions of dollars from governments, companies and wealthy individuals — some dubious.
該基金會從政府、企業和富有的個人那裏收受了數十億美元——其中一些很可疑。
That the cheques were made out for good causes is no help.
這些支票是爲了公益事業而開具也無濟於事。
To Mrs Clinton’s foes the foundation provides a cornucopia of stories and scandals.
對希拉里的對手而言，這家基金會提供了取之不盡的故事和醜聞。
Governments such as Qatar and Morocco channelled money through Mr Clinton, rather than the UN, say, or the Gates Foundation for a reason.
卡塔爾和摩洛哥等國的政府通過克林頓輸送金錢，而不是通過聯合國或者像蓋茨基金會(Gates Foundation)這樣的機構是有原因的。
In their view it provided access to, and possible influence over, Mr Clinton.
在它們看來，這樣做能夠提供接近克林頓的渠道，甚至有可能獲得對他的影響力。
He and Mrs Clinton earned big speaking fees from some of the same entities.
克林頓和希拉里還從這些實體賺取了鉅額的演講費。
In a highly charged environment, Mrs Clinton would take office as the first president since Gallup started polling to have a trust deficit with the American public.
在高度緊張的局勢下，如果希拉里當選，她將成爲自蓋洛普(Gallup)開始民調以來首位與美國公衆之間存在信任缺失的總統。
Mrs Clinton is both the victim and co-author of her own torment.
希拉里既是她本人所受困擾的受害者，也是始作俑者之一。
Every time she took a decision with any bearing on a former donor to the Clinton Foundation, there would be a perceived conflict of interest.
每當她做出一個與克林頓基金會的前捐贈者有任何關聯的決策時，外界都會認爲存在利益衝突。
That would apply even more to entities that have paid private speaking fees to either Clinton.
涉及那些曾向克林頓或者希拉里支付私人演講費的實體的決策就更是如此。
Potential conflicts would not just feed the Republican mill.
潛在的利益衝突不僅會給共和黨人提供攻擊把柄。
If a Clinton-appointed regulator dismissed some charge or other against Goldman Sachs, would the Democratic left believe it? If she approved a hefty arms sale to a Gulf state, could it be taken at face value?
如果希拉里任命的監管機構駁回對高盛(Goldman Sachs)的這樣那樣的指控，左翼民主黨人會不會信服？如果她批准了對某個海灣國家進行大規模軍售，人們是否會不加猜疑地看待這個決定？
It is not too late for Mrs Clinton to promise to mothball the foundation.
希拉里現在承諾擱置基金會活動還不算太晚。
The longer she leaves it the harder it will become.
她拖延得越久，局面就會變得越困難。
It is not just her husband’s pride that is at stake, or her daughter’s future.
這不僅關乎她丈夫的榮譽，或者她女兒的未來。
This is about her ability to govern America.
這關乎她有沒有能力治理美國。
