朝鮮導彈威脅升級 美強調防禦系統重要性

US Cites Growing N. Korea Long-Range Missile Threat

朝鮮導彈威脅升級 美強調防禦系統重要性

President Obama’s National Intelligence Director recently told the U.S. Congress that North Korea has made advancements toward developing a long-range ballistic missile that could reach the U.S. At the same time, a possible deployment of a U.S. missile defense system in South Korea is being debated, but for officials in Seoul, these two issues are not necessarily related.

美國國家情報總監詹姆斯·克拉珀最近對國會表示，朝鮮在發展可以到達美國領土的遠程彈道導彈方面取得了顯著進步。與此同時，在韓國部署美國導彈防禦系統的計劃正在受到激烈辯論，而首爾官員認爲這兩個問題之間不一定有關係。

In written testimony to Congress, James Clapper, the U.S. National Intelligence Director, last week said that North Korea has taken steps to deploy a long range, inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) called the KN-08 that will be capable of reaching the U.S.

美國國家情報總監詹姆斯·克拉珀上週在對國會的書面證詞中表示，朝鮮正在採取步驟部署名爲KN-08的洲際彈道導彈，這種導彈的射程可以到達美國。

Around the same time David Stilwell, the Pentagon’s deputy director for Politico-Military Affairs for Asia, said the North Korean missile threat has created a “demand” for the THAAD missile defense system on the Korean Peninsula.

五角大樓的亞洲政治軍事事務副主任戴維·史迪威說，朝鮮導彈威脅凸顯了在朝鮮半島上部署終端高空區域防禦系統的“必要性”。

While North Korea’s growing long-range missile threat and South Korea’s missile defense needs may be overlapping U.S. security concerns, they are separate issues to Seoul.

朝鮮發展遠程彈道導彈和在韓國部署導彈系統是美國關注的同一個安全問題，但是對於首爾來說，這是兩個截然不同的議題。

Shin In-kyun, a security analyst with the Korea Defense Network said South Korea's concerns are short-range threats, not ICBMs.

韓國防衛網絡的安全分析師申寅均說，韓國擔心的是短程導彈而不是洲際彈道導彈的威脅。

He said ICBMs cannot attack South Korea due to their maximum firing range. So he thinks Clapper’s comments on ICBMs were made to express pre-emptive warning or worries about a possible cut in the defense budget, rather than the deployment of THAAD in South Korea.

他說，洲際彈道導彈由於射程遠而無法攻擊韓國。所以他認爲，史迪威對於遠程導彈的評論是基於對可能削減國防預算的擔憂，而不是馬上在韓國部署終端高空區域防禦系統。

The THAAD missile defense system, which is equipped with radar capable of tracking objects 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) away, is designed to intercept ballistic missiles at high altitude.

終端高空區域防禦系統能夠使用雷達探測到1900公里以外的物體，其目的是攔截高空的彈道導彈。

China and Russia oppose its deployment in Korea because THAAD could possibly be used to intercept their missiles and would enhance U.S. military capabilities in the region.

中國和俄羅斯反對在韓國部署這個系統，因爲這能夠攔截他們的導彈，而且能夠加強美國在亞太地區的軍事實力。

Officials in Seoul have so far avoided taking a stand on THAAD. When asked, they repeat the “three nos”: no official request has come from Washington, no official consultations have been conducted and no decision has yet been made on whether to station a THAAD battery on the Korean Peninsula.

首爾官員目前沒有就這個防禦系統表態。當被問及這個問題時，他們的回答是“三個沒有”：也就是目前沒有來自華盛頓的官方要求，沒有官員對此進行正式磋商，沒有決定是否在朝鮮半島部署終端高空區域防禦導彈。

As for North Korea’s long-range missile threat, Pyongyang has yet to test fire the KN-08, a step that is considered essential to its eventual development and deployment.

而朝鮮方面，平壤目前還沒有試射KN-8遠程彈道導彈。而一旦試射，將意味着朝鮮能夠最終發展和部署這種武器。

Analysts associated with the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Affairs say there is satellite imagery that shows rocket engine testing and construction underway at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in North Korea that supports Clapper’s assertion. They say the worst case scenario is that North Korea will deploy a functioning ICBM missile within the next three to five years, but ongoing sanctions and technical constraints could impede the development timeline by years or even decades.

約翰·霍普金斯大學高級國際研究學院美韓研究所的分析師表示，衛星圖像顯示朝鮮西海衛星發射場有火箭彈引擎試驗和建設的畫面，這佐證了克拉珀的說法。他們表示，最糟糕的情況將是朝鮮在未來3年到5年內部署一個洲際彈道導彈系統，然而目前的制裁和技術限制很可能把這個時間推遲數年或數十年。

Shin In-kyun said North Korea must complete a number of tests before it can enter the ICBM deployment stage.

申寅均說，在部署洲際彈道導彈前，朝鮮必須完成一系列測試。

He said that in order to be recognized as a weapon, a missile must pass at least ten firing tests and score 70 percent, or succeed about 7 times in the firing tests.

他說，一個導彈要通過至少十次試射，其中有7次成功，才能被認爲是有效武器。

Because the KN-08 has not been tested, he estimates it will take several more years for North Korea to build a working ICBM.

但由於KN-08還沒有經過試射，他預計朝鮮還要用幾年時間來完成洲際彈道導彈。

It is also not known how close North Korea is to developing a miniaturized nuclear warhead that could be used on a ballistic missile. Last year General Curtis Scaparrotti, the Commander of U.S. Forces Korea, said he believed North Korea has the expertise and capability to build a miniaturized nuclear device, and the South Korean Minister of Defense Han Min-koo also said Pyongyang has made progress in its miniaturization technology.

目前還不清楚朝鮮彈道導彈的小型核彈頭髮展到何種程度。去年，駐韓美軍司令官柯蒂斯·斯卡帕羅蒂上將表示，他相信朝鮮有能力製造小型核彈頭。而韓國國防部長官韓民求也說，平壤在小型化技術上取得進展。