英國不能因移民問題退歐

Can it make sense for the UK to leave the EU over its principle of free movement of people? The answer is: no. Immigration is indeed a big issue, as is UK membership of the EU. But the former must not drive the latter. Both are too important for that.

英國因爲人員自由流動原則的關係而退出歐盟(EU)明智嗎？答案是否定的。移民問題確實重要，英國的歐盟成員國身份也是如此。但不能爲了前者而放棄後者，因爲這兩樣東西都太過重要了。

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Yet increasingly David Cameron, the UK prime minister, is boxing himself into a corner in his discussions with other members of the EU. This is largely a result of his party’s hysteria over the electoral success of the UK Independence party. It is also because a section of his party would welcome any excuse for leaving the EU. This blend of fear and hostility is driving Mr Cameron towards demanding derogations from the founding treaties’ principle of freedom of movement that he has no chance of securing. If he were to be prime minister after next year’s general election, he would have to campaign for a No vote in the referendum he would be mandated to call. Brexit is the likely outcome.

然而，在與其他歐盟成員國的討論中，英國首相戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)日益把自己逼到了死角。這在很大程度上是他所屬的保守黨對英國獨立黨選舉獲勝反應過度造成的。還有一個原因是，保守黨內有一部分人對脫離歐盟的任何理由都表示歡迎。對移民的恐懼加上敵意，正推動卡梅倫一步步邁向要求廢除歐盟創立公約中的自由遷徙原則——而這是根本不可能辦到的。如果在明年的大選之後仍然擔任首相，卡梅倫將不得不在自己授權舉行的公投中呼籲民衆投反對票。“英國退歐”(Brexit)是很可能的結果。

The news that the UK registered a 43 per cent year-on-year increase in net immigration in the year to June 2014 will add fuel to these flames. The figure of 260,000 for net immigration in the most recent 12 months exceeds that of any previous calendar year. It makes a mockery of the government’s promise to reduce net immigration to below 100,000. But the coalition did not have the levers to deliver on this promise, just as it will not be allowed to control immigration from the EU while staying inside. Promising what one cannot deliver is, as King Canute taught, folly. But Canute was trying to deliver a lesson. Mr Cameron was not.

在截至2014年6月的一年時間裏，英國淨移民人數同比增長43%的消息，更是火上澆油。英國在最近12個月的淨移民人數是26萬，超過了之前任何一個自然年。這讓英國政府將淨移民人數降至10萬以下的承諾變成了個笑話。但英國聯合政府缺乏兌現這個承諾的手段，歐盟也不可能允許它既留在歐盟內、又控制來自歐盟的移民。做出無法兌現的承諾是愚蠢的，正如克努特大帝(King Canute)在《克努特大帝在海邊》的故事中學到的那樣。克努特國王當時那樣做是爲了給身邊那些溜鬚拍馬的官員一個教訓，卡梅倫則不是。

The government could not deliver on its immigration target partly because it cannot control inflows from the EU and partly because it cannot control emigration. The most it could ever do was control gross immigration from outside the EU. Yet it has failed even to bring these flows into line with its promises.

英國政府之所以無法實現其移民目標，部分原因在於它無法控制來自歐盟的移民數量，還有部分原因在於它無法控制英國遷往海外的移民數量。它能做的至多不過是控制來自歐盟以外移民的總人數。然而，英國政府甚至在這方面也未能兌現承諾。

In the year to June 2014, net inflows from outside the EU were 168,000. This was 37 per cent below the calendar year peak of 266,000 in 2004. But it was, even so, 18 per cent larger than the net inflow from the EU. In fact, even if the net inflow from the EU had been zero, the government would have failed to push overall net immigration below 100,000, since net emigration of British citizens was only 50,000.

在截至2014年6月的一年時間裏，來自歐盟外部的淨移民人數是16.8萬。這比2004年度26.6萬的峯值少了37%。但即便如此，這個數字仍比來自歐盟的淨移民人數高出18%。實際上，即便來自歐盟的淨移民人數是零，英國政府也無法讓淨移民總數降至10萬以下，因爲英國公民淨外遷人數僅有5萬。

The predominant focus on immigration from the EU is in large part a displacement activity. So is the worry that a significant proportion of the latter are “welfare tourists”. A high proportion of immigrants from the EU come to work, being attracted by the UK’s relatively dynamic, high-employment economy. The latest census showed, for example, that 80 per cent of immigrants from the EU who were of working age and who had been present in the UK for between five and 10 years were in employment; against 69 per cent of all those born in the UK and 61 per cent of those born outside the EU. Not surprisingly, the evidence also shows that immigrants from the EU, being young and active, make a large net fiscal contribution.

將主要矛頭對準來自歐盟的移民，這在很大程度上是在尋找替罪羊。關於很大部分來自歐盟的移民是“福利遊客”的擔憂也是如此。來自歐盟的移民有很大一部分是來工作的，英國相對活躍的經濟和高就業率吸引了他們。例如，最新的人口普查顯示，處於就業年齡、且在英國生活的時間在5至10年之間的歐盟移民，有80%在工作，在英國本土出生的人口的這一比例是69%，出生於歐盟以外地區的人口的這一比例則爲61%。毫不意外的是，還有證據表明，來自歐盟的移民年輕而富有活力，爲英國財政做出了巨大的淨貢獻。

True, if they stay, that may change. Yet, as the Centre for European Reform’s report on the economic consequences of leaving the EU showed, the view that immigration from the EU has imposed huge net economic costs on the UK is utterly unfounded. This does not mean it has made a large net contribution to the economic welfare of those already resident. That is more debatable: the evidence is that the preponderance of the benefits of immigration accrue to migrants themselves. But the presence of hard-working and ambitious people speaking a multitude of languages and offering a diversity of cultures, while fitting within the predominantly liberal culture of the UK, should surely be welcome. Even if one takes into account the costs of additional spending on infrastructure and possible effects on house prices, the view that this immigration can itself be a reason for leaving the EU speaks of a grim lack of confidence in the future.

誠然，如果這些歐盟移民在英國生活的年頭繼續增加，這種情況可能會改變。然而，正如歐洲改革中心(Centre for European Reform)關於退歐經濟後果的報告所顯示的那樣，歐盟移民讓英國付出了巨大經濟淨成本的觀點根本站不住腳。這並不意味着歐盟移民對英國原有居民的經濟福利做出了巨大的淨貢獻——這一點還有較大爭議：有證據表明，移民帶來的好處，主要讓移民本身受益。但這些移民勤奮而有抱負，說着各種不同的語言，帶來了多元的文化，同時也融入了英國基本上比較自由的文化，他們的到來當然值得歡迎。即便將基礎設施額外支出的成本和對房價的可能影響考慮在內，如果你認爲移民本身可以成爲退歐的理由，那麼你對未來也太缺乏信心了。

It makes sense for the UK to have a debate on immigration and to recognise both the opportunities and challenges it creates. It makes sense, too, to have a proper and rounded debate on the UK’s place in the continent of which it will always be a part. Immigration from the EU is neither the dominant element in immigration, nor is it is particularly problematic. The reverse is far closer to the truth. Immigration is the wrong issue to focus on in this debate.

英國就移民問題進行辯論、認識到移民帶來的機遇與挑戰，這是明智的。英國將始終是歐洲的一部分，就英國在歐洲的位置舉行適當而全面的辯論，這同樣是明智的。來自歐盟的移民既不是主導移民問題的核心因素，也不是格外成問題的部分；事實其實恰恰相反。把這場辯論的焦點集中在移民問題上是錯誤的。

Equally, the decision on whether to stay in the EU will shape the UK’s future for the indefinite future. It would be folly to let a paroxysm of anxiety over immigration drive this debate. Unfortunately, that degree of stupidity seems frighteningly near.

同樣，是否留在歐盟，將在無限期的未來地決定英國的未來是什麼樣子的。讓對移民問題的突發憂慮左右這場辯論的走向，將是愚蠢的。遺憾的是，這樣的蠢事看上去近在眼前。