時事新聞:下任總統,祝你好運
The presidential election is heading down to the wire. With three weeks to go, the polls show Mitt Romney and Barack Obama within a few points. The swing states are in play. Somewhere close to $2 billion will be spent in total on the final outcome.
再過兩週，美國總統選舉將迎來最後時刻。民調顯示，羅姆尼(Mitt Romney)和奧巴馬(Barack Obama)目前的差距僅有數個百分點。幾個搖擺州將備受關注。到最終結果出爐,這次總統大選總計將花費近20億美元。It's time to look ahead. What sort of agenda will the winner inherit? How will he deal with a bitterly divided and partisan political system, a weak recovery, and a raft of pressing crises at home and abroad?
是時候向前看了。勝選者將面臨什麼樣的局面？他將如何應對黨派分歧嚴重的政治體系、步履蹣跚的經濟復甦以及一系列迫在眉睫的國內外危機？Here's what the email from his chief economic adviser might look like on Nov. 7.
11月7日當天，他很可能會從首席經濟顧問那裏收到這樣一封郵件。
Dear Mr. President/President-Elect,
總統/候任總統先生:Congratulations on your victory. I'm sorry to butt in on your celebrations, but you asked for a summary of the economic problems ahead. I'm afraid you face five major ones.
祝賀你贏得了選舉。很抱歉打擾了你們的慶祝，但之前你說想要一份當前經濟問題的總結，現在我把它交給你了。我想，恐怕你將面臨以下五大問題。1. The fiscal cliff
1、財政懸崖On Dec. 31 the U.S. federal government is going to hit a potentially disastrous so-called fiscal cliff. Under current law, taxes are set to jump and spending will be cut. This is partly due to the planned expiration of the Bush-era and other tax cuts and partly to spending cuts agreed to last year. Bill Butcher
2012年12月31日，美國聯邦政府可能遭遇一場被稱爲“財政懸崖”的災難。根據現行法律，稅收將大幅增加，開支會減少。部分原因是布什政府時期制定的減稅措施和其他一些減稅措施按計劃將到期，還有部分原因是去年達成的減支方案。This must not be allowed to happen. The International Monetary Fund, the Congressional Budget Office and most economists agree that the net effect of this sharp budget tightening, at a time when the economy is weak, could tip the U.S. economy back into recession.
但你決不能允許這樣的情況發生。國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund, 簡稱:IMF)、國會預算辦公室(Congressional Budget Office)和大部分經濟學家都認爲，在美國經濟不景氣的當口，嚴厲財政緊縮措施的淨效應會使經濟重陷衰退。Middle-class taxpayers would see a big jump in tax bills. Andrew Smithers, a financial consultant in London who called the last two financial crises, suspects it could also tank the stock market.
中產階級納稅人的納稅額將大幅上漲。曾預言過前兩次金融危機的倫敦經濟諮詢師史密瑟斯(Andrew Smithers)估計，嚴厲的財政緊縮措施還會使股票市場受到重創。Yet something must be done. Clearly, $1 trillion-plus budget deficits cannot go on indefinitely. And Congress is likely to demand some form of deal as the price for approving yet another increase to the debt ceiling early next year. We need that agreement, or you will be the first president in history to default on Treasury bonds.
但有些事情你卻不得不做。顯然，逾一萬億美元的財政赤字是不可持續的。如果明年年初你想讓再次提高債務上限的提案獲得通過，國會很可能要求你以某種形式的交易作爲代價。我們需要提高債務上限，否則你將會成爲美國曆史上第一位長期國債違約的總統。2. Jobs
2、就業According to the Labor Department, about 15% of the workforce, or one worker in seven, is either unemployed or stuck working part-time because he or she can't get full-time work. And 23% of prime working-age men - about 14 million ages 25 to 54 - lack a full-time job. Think about the lost output in the economy - and lost taxes to the government.
據勞工部(Labor Department)稱，約15%的勞動力因爲找不到全職工作要麼處於失業狀態，要麼就只能打零工，也就是說，每七個勞動力中就有一個這樣的人。約23%處於最佳就業年齡段的男性──即約1,400萬名年齡在25歲至54歲之間的男性──沒有全職工作。想想吧，有多少經濟產出和政府稅收因此而喪失。This has been a recession like no other since World War II. Yes, the U.S. has recovered faster than many of our overseas competitors. And, yes, the private sector has been hiring at a reasonable clip lately - about 145,000 new jobs a month so far this year.
這次的經濟衰退 是二戰以來最嚴重的。沒錯，我們比許多海外競爭者復甦得更快。沒錯，私營部門的就業率最近一直以可觀的速度增長，年初迄今平均每月新增約145,000個崗位。Over the last four years, the U.S. government has thrown billions and billions of borrowed money, and billions more of printed money, at the economy. Yet according to a recent study by the Associated Press, this has been the weakest recovery since the War.
過去四年中，美國政府將數十億借來的錢和幾十億印出來的錢扔進經濟體系當中，但據美聯社(Associated Press)最近的一項研究顯示，此次經濟復甦是二戰以來最乏力的。The public has just elected you to sustain a jobs recovery in these circumstances. And the public is looking for you to bring the estimated five million long-term unemployed back into the economy.
民衆剛挑選了你，期待你能在目前的經濟環境中維持就業增長，並希望你能讓長期失業者──據估計約有500萬──重回工作崗位。3. Retirement
3、退休If you think the jobs crisis is bad, look at the looming retirement crisis.
如果你覺得就業危機已經很糟糕了，那麼看看正在逼近的退休危機吧。Social Security and Medicare, most agree, are on unsustainable fiscal ground. Taxes will have to be raised, and spending reined in, to ensure the systems stay solvent. This is a major item on your to-do list.
美國社會保障體系和聯邦醫療保險在財政上具有不可持續性，大部分人都同意這點。因此政府不得不提高稅收，控制支出，確保這兩者不至於債臺高築到無力償還的地步。這是你“待辦事項”清單上的一個主要項目。But here's the problem. There's only so much you can cut, because 80 million baby boomers are starting to retire─and very few of them are prepared. According to the latest survey by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, an independent think tank, 'a sizable percentage of workers have virtually no money in savings and investments.'
但問題是，你能削減的支出也就那麼多。因爲8,000萬嬰兒潮時期出生的人即將進入退休年齡，而他們中做好了退休準備的人寥寥無幾。據獨立智庫僱員福利研究中心(Employee Benefit Research Institute)最新的調查顯示，有相當一部分的勞動者幾乎沒有任何存款或投資。Sixty percent of all workers surveyed have less than $25,000 in savings and investments, and 30% have less than $1,000. The figures for boomers - those over 45 - are better, but not by a lot.
接受調查的所有勞動者中，60%的人存款和投資不足25,000美元，30%的人不足1,000美元。那些嬰兒潮一代人，也就是45歲以上的人，他們的情況要好一些，但也好不了多少。To put this in context, $25,000 will buy a retired couple an annuity of only about $118 a month. Add that to an average Social Security check of $1,230 a month, and you are potentially looking at mass poverty among the elderly.
聯繫眼前的現實，25,000美元意味着一對退休夫婦每月只能拿到約118美元的養老金。加上平均每月1,230美元的社保金，不難得出這樣一個結論，那就是很大一部分老年人都將生活在貧困之中。4. Debt
4、債務You've probably heard that Americans have been paying down debts and shoring up their balance sheets. You've probably heard that corporations are meanwhile sitting on a ton of cash. It all sounds promising.
你很可能已經聽說，美國人一直在償還債務，改善他們的資產負債表。你也很可能聽說了，美國公司坐擁大筆現金。這一切聽起來讓人覺得充滿了希望。The trouble is that it's mostly a mirage.
但問題是，這基本只不過是海市蜃樓而已。According to the Federal Reserve, total household debts have fallen 6% from their peak at the top of the bubble. They are higher today than they were at the end of 2006.
美聯儲(Federal Reserve)稱，家庭債務總額已從泡沫最嚴重時的頂點下降了6%。但目前這一額度依然高於2006年年末時的水平。Meanwhile, 'cash-rich' U.S. corporations have borrowed an extra $1.1 trillion just since 2007, and their total debts now stand at a record $8.2 trillion.
同時，“坐擁大筆現金”的美國公司自2007年來已經又借了1.1萬億美元。目前它們的總負債額已達創紀錄的8.2萬億美元。Throw in U.S. government debts, and you have a system that in total owes $39 trillion - an unprecedented two and a half times gross domestic product. This poses serious risks, including weak growth and even another financial crisis.
加上美國政府的債務，在你手裏的是一個總共欠債39萬億美元的經濟體系──這一規模空前的債務額是美國國內生產總值的2.5倍。這裏面蘊藏着巨大的風險，包括經濟增長乏力，甚至還有可能再來一場金融危機。5. China
5、中國In the short term, you face the risks of a 'hard landing' for the Chinese economy. For the last few years, it has been a major engine of the global economy. In the coming months, many on Wall Street worry, that may be interrupted as China switches from an economy dominated by infrastructure spending to one with more consumer spending.
短期而言，你面臨着中國經濟“硬着陸”的風險。過去這幾年，中國一直是全球經濟的一個主要引擎。但是，中國正在從一個靠基礎設施建設拉動的經濟體向靠內需拉動的經濟體轉型。華爾街的許多人士擔心，未來數月，這種情形很可能因爲轉型而中斷。In the longer term, every president since Ulysses S. Grant has presided over an America that had the biggest economy in the world. You will probably be the last.
長期來看，自格蘭特(Ulysses S. Grant)就任總統以來，美國一直是全球最大的經濟體。不過你可能是最後一位看到這種情形的美國總統了。Based on International Monetary Fund data, China's real output is set to hit $20.2 trillion by 2017, surpassing $19.7 trillion in the U.S. And China is still seeing faster long-term growth than the mature U.S. economy. The gap will widen year after year. Our share of global output, which was 24% in 2000, will by 2017 be down to 18% - and falling. IMF的數據顯示，中國的實際產出將在2017年達到20.2萬億美元，超過美國的19.7萬億美元。而且，相比成熟的美國經濟，中國還將經歷長期的快速增長。兩國之間的差距會一年比一年大。2000年，美國佔全球總產出的比例爲24%，但是到2017年，這一比例會下降至18%，而且會繼續下降。
This poses enormous economic, political and strategic challenges. Yes, our military is still No. 1 - but you can't run a first-class empire with a second-class economy, as the British and the Soviets learned years ago.這將在經濟、政治和戰略上帶來巨大的挑戰。是的，我們的軍事力量仍然是世界第一，但是沒有一流的經濟就不會有一流的帝國。多年以前，英國和蘇聯的經驗已經驗證了這一點 。
Sorry about all this doom and gloom, Mr. President/President-Elect, especially on the morning after your big triumph.總統/候任總統先生，很抱歉和你說這些讓人感到悲觀、不快的話，尤其是在你剛取得重大勝利的這個上午。
But look on the bright side. The Electoral College doesn't meet till Dec. 17. Maybe they'll pick the other guy instead.但我們也不妨看看光明的一面。選舉人團(Electoral College)要12月17日纔開會，到時候說不定他們會選擇你的對手呢。
