長沙市推出1300億美元刺激計劃
Changsha, a gritty industrial city in central China, has set out a $130bn investment plan that could pave the way for other local governments to launch stimulus programmes as the country's economic growth slows.
長沙，中國中部一座彪悍的工業城市，推出了一項規模達1300億美元的投資計劃。在中國經濟增長放緩之際，該計劃可能爲中國其他地方政府推出刺激計劃鋪平道路。The central government has vowed to avoid a repeat of its mammoth 2009-10 stimulus, which led to soaring debts and inflation. But it has also started to call for more investment to support the economy, opening the door for growth-hungry local governments to unveil ambitious spending targets.
中國中央政府已表示絕不會再次推出像2009至2010年那種規模龐大的經濟刺激。那次的經濟刺激造成了債務和通脹飆升的後果。但中央政府也已開始呼籲增加投資、以支持經濟，這爲渴望增長的地方政府推出雄心勃勃的支出計劃打開了大門。Changsha, capital of Hunan province, is the first to announce a comprehensive plan. Analysts said the move made clear that China's top priority now was to prop up the flagging economy, which expanded 7.6 per cent, a three-year low, in the second quarter.
湖南省省會長沙是第一個宣佈推出全面支出計劃的城市。分析人士表示，此舉清楚地表明，中國目前的當務之急是爲日趨疲軟的經濟提供支撐。中國經濟第二季度增幅爲7.6%，是三年來最低水平。
“This is the beginning of a new wave of fiscal stimulus led by China's local governments, in response to the recent green light given by Wen Jiabao, China's premier, to promote investment and expand employment,” said Shen Jianguang, an economist with Mizuho Securities.
瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)經濟學家沈建光說：“中國總理溫家寶最近提出要促進投資、增加就業以後，由長沙開頭，中國各地方政府可能都會推出新的財政刺激計劃。”But there were questions about whether Changsha could finance its plan and worries that another spending binge would lead to wasteful investment, harming China's long-term economic outlook.
但有人質疑長沙市政府能否籌集足夠資金完成此計劃。也有人擔心，再來一輪大舉支出，可能導致投資出現浪費，對中國長期經濟前景造成傷害。“There are disagreements about how much the government should stimulate, and there are constraints both on the monetary and the fiscal side, otherwise we would have seen more of these [investment plans] by now,” said Jian Chang, an economist with Barclays.
巴克萊(Barclays)經濟學家常健表示：“人們還未就政府刺激的適當規模達成一致。貨幣和財政方面都有一些限制，否則現在我們應該已經看到更多這種（投資計劃）出臺。”When the global financial crisis erupted in 2008, China unleashed a debt-fuelled stimulus that propelled the country to a strong recovery, but saddled its banks with problem loans and fuelled a property bubble.
2008年全球經濟危機爆發時，中國推出了一輪債務驅動的刺激計劃。該計劃促使中國經濟實現強勁復甦，但也讓銀行業背上了不良貸款的包袱，並吹高了房地產泡沫。That has led central government to be far more cautious this year in the face of the economic slowdown. But local governments, which have seen their revenues crumble as land sales have cooled, have been raring to ramp up investment and appear to have the political backing to push ahead with such plans.
中央政府從中得到了教訓，今年在面對經濟增長放緩變得謹慎得多。但受土地出讓轉冷影響而收入驟減的地方政府，一心想增加投資，並且在推動此類計劃時似乎獲得了政治支持。Changsha, a city of 7m, aims to spend Rmb829bn ($130bn) on 195 projects, ranging from an airport expansion to road construction, waste treatment plants and improving the look of the city.
長沙，這個擁有700萬人口的城市，計劃在195個項目上投入8290億元人民幣（合1300億美元），項目範圍涵蓋機場擴建、道路工程、垃圾處理廠建設和市容建設等各個方面。“Although Changsha's economic situation remains very good, we cannot ignore the pressures and we must encourage stable, healthy growth,” Chen Run'er, the city's Communist party chief, was cited as saying by China News Agency.
新華社援引長沙市委書記陳潤兒的話說：“儘管長沙經濟基本面依然非常好，但我們不能忽視種種壓力，而必須鼓勵穩定、健康的增長。”The announcement came as the State Council, or cabinet, said it had approved a plan to promote the development of central provinces. It urged local governments to focus on equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries as well as investing in infrastructure such as airports.
就在長沙市宣佈其計劃之際，中國國務院通過了一份促進中部地區崛起的意見。國務院敦促各地方政府重點發展裝備製造業和高技術產業，並重點投資機場等基礎設施項目。Essential numbers were missing from Changsha's announcement, which made it hard to gauge its potential effect. For example, it did not say over what length of time the money would be spent, nor did it say how many of the projects were new.
長沙市政府的通告缺乏一些必要數據，因此我們難以對其潛在影響做出評估。比如，長沙市政府未說明此輪投資將在多長時間內完成，也沒有說明有多少項目是新項目。It was also unclear how the city would bankroll the spending, with the headline target equivalent to 147 per cent of Changsha's gross domestic product last year. It is also more than one-fifth the size of the Rmb4tn stimulus that China launched in 2008, despite the fact that this earlier money was spent nationwide while Changsha is a single municipality.
長沙市政府將如何爲支出計劃進行融資，這也是個未知數。長沙市政府此計劃的總支出目標是該市去年地區生產總值(GDP)的1.47倍，超過2008年中國4萬億刺激計劃的五分之一。不過，當時那4萬億是在中國全國各地支出的總和，而長沙只是一個城市。Mr Shen said local governments often overstated their investment plans and that the final amount spent might only be a third of the initial target.
沈建光表示，地方政府常常誇大其投資計劃，最終支出規模可能只有最初計劃的三分之一。Changsha said it would invite “global financial institutions” to participate in the investment, alongside the government and local banks.
長沙市政府表示將邀請“國際金融機構”與自己和地方銀行一同投資。“Financing is a problem,” said Zhang Zhiwei, an economist with Nomura. “To what extent this plan can be realistically implemented largely depends on access to bank loans.”
野村證券(Nomura)經濟學家張智威表示：“融資是個問題。這份計劃能在多大程度上實際執行，很大程度上取決於銀行貸款情況。”Banks in effect cut off local governments from lending over the past two years after concerns about the debts they had accumulated during the previous stimulus. Yet regulators have started to loosen the reins in recent weeks, telling banks they can lend to projects that are likely to deliver good returns.
因對上一輪經濟刺激中累積的債務感到擔心，銀行在過去兩年中事實上切斷了對地方政府的貸款。但監管機構最近幾周開始放鬆控制，允許銀行向可能帶來良好回報的項目發放貸款。Local governments have responded to the loosening of policy by presenting large investment plans.
政策一放鬆，各地方政府紛紛推出大規模投資計劃。Xi'an, capital of northern Shaanxi province, said this week it would build nine underground train lines, adding to the six it was planning to build. Meanwhile, Guizhou province in the south said it wanted to spend about Rmb3tn on the development of its tourism industry.
西安（中國北方省份陝西省省會）市政府本週表示，可能在已納入規劃的6條地鐵線之外，再建設9條地鐵線。同時，中國南方的貴州省政府表示，想投資3萬億元人民幣左右，用於發展該省的旅遊業。
