歐元前景愈加不妙
【英文原文】
Euro Risks Accumulate
The euro is really taking a beating Wednesday as concerns percolate about Greece and a ratings downgrade for Portugal, among other euro-zone risks.
Already analysts are talking about the euro potentially falling as low as $1.30 in the coming days, after the currency hit a 10-month low of $1.33 earlier in the day. The euro is clearly being hit by rhetoric flowing out of European officials ahead of the two-day summit of EU leaders that kicks off Thursday in Brussels.
Now ordinarily, we would discount that as nothing but typical mumbo-jumbo coming ahead of some sort of classic European fudge on Greece. But as ING analysts point out, the rhetoric has key implications for international investors.
'What is an international investor to think having fled from the dollar to the safe haven of the euro only last year,' they ask. On that front, they note that there's evidence of a retreat from euro-zone assets. Portfolio-flow data from the European Central Bank suggest the international community's love affair with euro-zone securities is waning.
'Foreign demand for euro-zone debt peaked at around 550 billion euro in the summer of 2007. As of January 2010, foreigners had only bought a meager 82 billion euro of euro-zone debt as a 12 month sum and were net sellers in both December and January.'
Tough talking from German officials isn't helping. According to reports, Germany requires several criteria be met before it agrees to some sort of IMF-EU bailout for Greece. One idea is that aid should come only after Greece has been shut out of the capital markets. There are huge risks to this strategy, though, for the euro. 'Is Germany waiting for a failed bond auction and Greece being shut out of private placements and syndicated deals before being prepared to participate in a package?,' ask the ING analysts.
None of it right now adds up to a pretty picture for the euro, which is already down more than 6% this year against the dollar. 'It seems increasingly likely that the E.U. will embrace the worst of all worlds for the euro, and be doubly damned by choosing a combination of an IMF and EU emergency facility for Greece,' notes Alan Ruskin at RBS. Ruskin had a mid-year $1.28 forecast for the euro against the dollar and was looking at $1.24 in mid 2011. 'If contagion in the euro area takes hold, and Greece is a precursor to a Portugal bail-out and so forth, then that view is clearly conservative and thoughts of $1.15 or $1.10 come to the fore.'
【中文譯文】
歐元前景愈加不妙
週三，隨着投資者對希臘危機以及葡萄牙評級下調等風險因素的擔憂擴散，歐元遭遇了迎頭痛擊。
現在已經有分析師認爲歐元會在未來幾天跌至兌1.30美元的低位。週三早些時候，歐元一度觸及1.33美元的10個月低點。爲期兩天的歐盟領導人峯會定於週四在布魯塞爾召開，歐元週三的走勢顯然是被歐盟官員的講話拖下了水。
一般情況下，我們會認定他們的講話不過是虛張聲勢，後面接下來還是些針對希臘問題的典型歐洲式空談。但是正如荷蘭商業銀行(ING BANK)分析師所指出的那樣，這樣的講話爲國際投資者提供了關鍵暗示。
他們問道，一個去年才因避險因素拋售美元轉投歐元的國際投資者在想些什麼呢？這些分析師指出，從這方面考慮，有證據表明在歐元區資產上的投資出現了縮水。歐洲央行(European Central Bank)提供的投資數據顯示，國際社會對歐元區證券的投資興致是越來越淡薄了。
2007年夏天時境外投資者對歐元區債券的投資規模達到了5,500億歐元的峯值；截至2010年1月，境外投資者在之前12個月中累計購買的歐元區債券僅價值820億歐元。他們在12月和1月份成爲了債券的淨賣家。
德國官員措辭嚴厲的講話不會給歐元帶來幫助。據報導，德國稱若要其同意以國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和歐盟聯手向希臘提供幫助的方案，就要滿足一些先決條件。其一是隻有希臘被隔阻於資本市場之外，救援纔可能實施。不過對於歐元來說這一策略蘊含了重大風險。荷蘭商業銀行分析師說，德國人是不是想要等到出現債券拍賣失敗、希臘與非公開配售以及銀團貸款徹底無緣後才肯準備拿出救助方案呢？
這一切無疑都會令歐元前景變得更加黯淡；今年迄今爲止歐元兌美元的跌幅已經超過了6%。供職於蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)的魯斯金(Alan Ruskin)說，現在看來歐盟越來越有可能放手讓歐元迎來最猛烈的打擊，同時若IMF-EU拿出針對希臘的聯合救助方案則會使事態雪上加霜。魯斯金預計今年年中歐元將跌至1.28美元，2011年年中時將跌至1.24美元。如果歐元區的危機傳染病能夠得到控制，而且在首先救助了希臘後還有葡萄牙等國在排隊等待救濟，那麼我對歐元匯價的走勢預測就顯然是太保守了，有關歐元或跌至1.15美元、甚至1.10美元的說法可能會浮出水面。
