中國樓市犍牛可否繼續瘋跑
When Sino Land’s Robert Ng first came to Hong Kong from Singapore about three decades ago, the real estate developer bid aggressively at land auctions and was widely seen to be an interloper.
當信和置業(Sino Land)的黃志祥(Robert Ng)大約30年前首次從新加坡來到香港的時候，這位房地產開發商在土地拍賣中積極投標，很多人把他看作一名闖入者。
Conventional wisdom was that he overpaid for everything, used a lot of debt and would surely implode.
大家都認爲，黃志祥高價拿地，大量舉債，將來肯定要破產。
However, as market prices kept rising, his aggressive faith paid off big time and today, he is one of the top property tycoons in Hong Kong.
然而，隨着市場價格持續上漲，這種激進理念給他帶來了巨大收益。如今，黃志祥是香港頂級房地產大亨之一。
Now, Chinese developers are the object of a similar debate.
現在，中國內地的房地產開發商引發了一場類似的爭論。
Property, particularly residential property, has been very volatile, stories of vast ghost cities abound and few people have any desire to live in fourth-tier cities, the only ones where property is even remotely affordable for most of the population.
房地產（尤其是住宅地產）市場波動劇烈，到處是鬼城傳聞，沒有多少人願意住在四線城市，而多數人只有在這類城市才勉強買得起房子。
Many analysts consider the most leveraged mainland developers vulnerable to a financial blow-up at any time.
許多分析師認爲，中國內地槓桿化程度最大的開發商隨時可能爆發財務危機。
Some of them, such as China Evergrande Group have debt loads of upwards of $60bn (according to its first-half interim unaudited results).
有些開發商的債務負擔超過600億美元，比如中國恆大集團（根據該公司未經審計的半年報）。
Moreover, Hong Kong has seen an influx of mainland development activity, suggesting that these players are not particularly bullish on their prospects at home.
此外，內地開發商紛紛涌入香港拓展業務，表明這些開發商對內地房地產前景並非特別看好。
But as so often is the case with China, the doomsayers may well be wrong.
但中國的情況往往是，悲觀預言者很可能是錯的。
Property as an asset class has become important in China — maybe too important.
房地產作爲一個資產類別在中國非常重要——可能過於重要了。
It is critical to the financial system (since 70 per cent of all bank loans are backed by real estate collateral), as a source of economic growth and as a source of savings and wealth for many households.
作爲經濟增長源頭以及許多家庭儲蓄和財富的源泉，房地產對中國金融體系至爲關鍵（因爲70%的銀行貸款是房地產抵押物支持的）。
It is hard for China’s domestic economy to do well if property does not.
如果房地產不行，中國國內經濟很難表現良好。
Property is an alternative currency in China, says Nicole Wang, the regional head of property research for CLSA in Hong Kong.
香港里昂證券(CLSA)的房產研究部門地區主管Nicole Wang表示：在中國，房地產就是一種替代貨幣。
But no asset class is as sensitive to liquidity’s soothing effect as property and there is a lot of liquidity in China.
但是，對於流動性所具有的安撫效果，沒有一種資產類別像房地產那麼敏感，而中國有大量的流動性。
And as it always does, liquidity is buoying the property market, well beyond the first-tier cities where so many couples go through staged divorces just so that they can each buy a starter home on more attractive terms.
一如既往，流動性正在推高房地產市場，而且遠不止是在一線城市——在許多一線城市，許多夫婦假離婚以便每人能夠以更有利條款購買首套房。
New home prices jumped 1.3 per cent month over month in August, the strongest increase since 2011, according to data from JPMorgan.
摩根大通(JPMorgan)的數據顯示，今年8月，新房價格環比上漲1.3%，爲2011年以來的最大漲幅。
Only four cities reported a drop in new home prices while they rose in 64 cities, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
中國國家統計局的數據顯示，只有4個城市的新房價格下降，而64個城市的新房價格上漲。
And economists such as Haibin Zhu of JPMorgan dismiss recent tightening measures as not aggressive enough and likely to curtail supply, thereby driving up prices even more.
摩根大通的朱海斌等經濟學家認爲最近的收緊措施力度不夠大，並可能抑制供應，從而進一步推升房價。
Liquidity is coming from the sky, says one Hong Kong-based hedge fund manager, noting that 40 per cent of all global money supply in recent years has come from China.
香港的一位對衝基金經理表示：流動性好似從天上來。他指出，最近幾年全球貨幣供應有40%來自中國。
So even as central banks in Japan and the US debate helicopter money for local infrastructure and other ambitious development projects, China comes closest to realising that concept as it ramps up its money printing presses.
因此，在日本和美國的央行討論採取直升機撒錢方式，上馬本地基礎設施和其他大項目之際，中國已加快了印鈔速度，這是其距離認識直升機撒錢這個概念最近的時候。
China’s total social financing for August was again at highs set earlier this year, while for the first half it amounted to $1.5tn, he adds.
他補充稱，中國8月份的社會融資總量再次達到今年早些時候的高點，而上半年達到1.5萬億美元。
Mortgage loans are growing rapidly; almost one-third of the increase in loans in the first half came from the property sector, according to data from the CLSA arm of Citic Securities.
抵押貸款迅速增長；中信證券(Citic Securities)旗下里昂證券(CLSA)的數據顯示，今年上半年，近三分之一貸款增量來自房地產領域。
The second-round impact outside China is already being felt as the price of copper and other commodities recover.
隨着銅和其他大宗商品價格回升，中國以外的地區正在感受這種增長的第二輪影響。
Moreover, there are a lot of reasons why the business is attractive in Hong Kong that do not point to a meltdown in the property market across the border.
此外，香港房地產業務具有吸引力有許多原因，它並不意味着內地房地產市場將會崩潰。
That is true of course despite the excessive borrowings, the apparent oversupply in unattractive places and the political risk which can haunt even the most attractive property firms such as Kaisa or Fosun.
情況確實如此，儘管存在過度借貸、非熱點區域供應過多以及困擾佳兆業(Kaisa)或復星(Fosun)等著名房地產公司的政治風險。
Those factors include lower taxes and bigger scale, and also — it is true — the desire for US dollar assets, according to Ms Wang.
Nicole Wang表示，香港具有吸引力的因素包括較低的稅率和較大的規模，還有人們對美元資產的胃口（的確如此）。
There are risks of course, among them affordability as income growth slows.
當然也存在一些風險，其中包括隨着收入增長放緩而出現的購買能力下降。
A recent informal survey in Singapore showed that a majority of those polled would prefer to own a luxury residential tower there than holding 30-year US Treasury bond.
新加坡最近的一項非正式調查顯示，大多數受訪者擁有中國一套豪宅的意願超過持有30年期美國國債。
Only one investor questioned landlords’ ability to raise rents going forward.
只有一位投資者質疑業主未來提高租金的能力。
China is not the only place where such questions are being asked.
中國並非唯一遭受此類質疑的地區。
