鼓勵中國建造更多環保大樓

How can the world best combat global warming? When asked that question, many people will talk about the need to close coal-fired power stations, embrace electric cars, recycle our rubbish and eschew air travel. Some might also point out that it is not enough for reforms to occur only in the west — emerging economies are also crucial.

要抗擊全球變暖，怎麼做最好？在回答這個問題時，很多人都會談到，要關閉燃煤發電廠、擁抱電動汽車、對垃圾進行回收利用、少坐飛機。有的人還會指出，只在西方進行改革是不夠的——新興經濟體也很重要。

But if the former US Treasury secretary Hank Paulson is correct, there is another essential step that almost nobody is talking about: putting money into Chinese housing. Yes, you read that right. These days, the phrase “Chinese real estate” is usually mentioned by economists who are worried about bubbles. But Paulson is fascinated by another concern. Recent environmental studies suggest that about “40 per cent of carbon emissions currently come from buildings”, or so he told me over lunch earlier this month. Meanwhile, “roughly half of new buildings going up in the world [now] are going up in China”, he continued, because of the breathless pace of development.

然而，如果前美國財長漢克•保爾森(Hank Paulson)所言不差，還有一個重要方法幾乎無人談及：向中國住宅投入資金。是的，你沒看錯。最近經常有經濟學家談及“中國房地產”一詞，他們擔心的是泡沫。但保爾森感興趣的是另一個方面。最近的環境研究顯示，“目前40%的碳排放來自建築物”——本月早些時候，他在一次午餐時這麼跟我說。而且，他繼續說道，“（現在）全球在建的新建築大約一半建在中國”，原因在於中國的開發步伐太快。

Thus, if only the world could persuade China to construct those new buildings in an energy-efficient way, we might have the means to reduce global warming. Or, to put it another way, if you want to make the world more green, targeting the way that China constructs its buildings might be more effective than endlessly fretting about buildings in countries where the structures are already built.

因此，只要世界說服中國用節能的方式建造新樓，我們可能就有辦法減輕全球變暖。或者換句話說，如果你希望讓這個世界變得更環保，那麼，比起時刻不停地擔心各國已落成的建築，着眼於中國的建築方式或許會更有效。

Is this just a crazy idea? You might be tempted to think so. After all, Paulson shot to fame as the former Goldman Sachs CEO who became the Republican Treasury secretary and then had to deal with the subprime mortgage market shock of 2008. At the time, he seemed like a tough-talking, all-American financial mandarin, the man who created a self-styled policy “bazooka” — a $700bn stimulus package. (When a TV movie, Too Big to Fail, was made about the crisis Paulson was played by William Hurt at his most rugged.)

這只是一種瘋狂的想法嗎？你可能忍不住這麼想。畢竟，保爾森之所以聲名鵲起是因爲這位高盛(Goldman Sachs)前首席執行官以共和黨成員身份成爲美國財長，接着不得不去解決2008年在美國房地產市場爆發的次貸危機。當時他的形象是一位說話強硬、純美國的金融要人，他開創了自稱爲“火箭筒”(bazooka)的政策：7000億美元的經濟刺激計劃。（在講述這場危機的電視電影《大而不倒》(Too Big to Fail)中，威廉•赫特(William Hurt)飾演保爾森，塑造了一個最堅毅的角色。）

Paulson’s background is not an obvious platform from which to start a campaign to change the way that China builds its houses; least of all when other Republicans such as Donald Trump are winning votes with China-bashing. But Paulson is embarking on his mission via his own foundation, the Paulson Institute. His theory is that China, if it is ever going to turn green, needs to find ways to make environmentally suitable buildings more cost effective. So he is trying to raise finance from public and private investors, inside China and elsewhere, to subsidise the use of green products, as part of a range of other environmental initiatives. “If you look at China, the bad news is that in their energy mix, roughly 70 per cent is coal, 20 per cent is oil and only 10 per cent is renewables,” he argues. “But the good news is that there is huge opportunity — and building is just one example.”

保爾森的背景並不是特別適合開展一項旨在改變中國住宅建築方式的運動；尤其是在唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)等其他共和黨人正借抨擊中國爭取選票的時候。但保爾森是通過自己的基金會——保爾森基金會(Paulson Institute)來開始這項使命的。他的理論是，如果中國要變得環保，就需要設法使環保建築更具成本效益。因此，他正設法向公共和私人投資者——包括中國國內和世界其他地方——籌集資金，以補貼使用環保產品的做法，這是一系列環保倡議的一部分。“如果你看一看中國，壞消息是在中國的能源結構中，約70%爲煤炭，20%是石油，只有10%是可再生能源，”他辯稱，“但好消息是，這裏機會巨大，建築只是一個例子。”

Who knows if this might work? But it is intriguing on several levels. First, it highlights an oft-ignored point: that if we want to tackle climate change, issues such as domestic recycling or electric cars are only a tiny part of the mix. Second, it shows that old-fashioned philanthropy is no longer the only game in town; nor, for that matter, are multilateral funds (or World Bank largesse). Instead, the fashion these days is finding ways to get private investors to back socially worthy projects, via innovations such as “green” bonds. This is hippy idealism meets Goldman Sachs spreadsheets.

誰知道這是否有用？但它有幾個方面頗有意思。首先，這突顯出經常被遺忘的一點：如果我們希望應對氣候變化，那麼諸如國內垃圾回收或電動汽車等問題只佔很小的角色。第二，這表明，老式的慈善不再是唯一的模式；多邊資金（或者世界銀行(World Bank)的鉅額款項）也不是。相反，最近流行的是設法通過發行“綠色債券”等創新方式，爭取私人投資者支持社會公益項目。這是嬉皮士的理想主義與高盛電子表格的相逢。

But there is a third aspect to all this: Paulson’s tale is a welcome example of middle-aged reinvention. Over lunch, he admitted that when he left office in 2008, he suffered a bout of the blues: without the adrenaline rush of power, it was tough to cope with the endless criticism of his policies. Once, former leaders in his position might head for the golf course; more recently, they have tried to establish general do-good foundations (such as the Clinton Global Initiative) or become consultants.

還有第三個方面：保爾森的故事是一箇中年轉型的可喜例子。在那次午餐時，他承認2008年卸任後他有一段時間情緒低落：沒有了權力所帶來的興奮感，要面對無休止的批評——針對他所施行的政策——是很艱難的。過去，卸任的政要們可能會流連高爾夫球場；比較近的則設法成立慈善基金會（例如“克林頓全球倡議”(Clinton Global Initiative)）或擔任顧問。

But Paulson’s strategy of picking a specific project — environmental challenges in China — seems unusually focused; today he exudes the air of a man who is profoundly at ease with himself. And who knows? He may end up doing some real good for the world too — either by getting more green buildings in China or even giving a new slant to the US-China relationship. (Unsurprisingly, Paulson is horrified by the tenor and tone of the Trump campaign and is supporting the candidacy of John Kasich.)

但保爾森選擇了一個特定項目——中國的環境挑戰——他這種策略顯得目標非常明確；如今，他給人的感覺是非常自在。誰知道呢？最終他也可能爲世界做出一些真正的好事——或者促成中國建造更多環保大樓，或者着重推動美中關係。（不出所料，保爾森對特朗普競選運動中的思想和論調感到可怕，他支持約翰•卡西奇(John Kasich)。）

Either way, the sight of a US Treasury secretary who once grappled with American subprime housing woes now worrying about Chinese cement is unexpected — and oddly cheering. Financial history can move in some unexpected ways.

不管是哪種方式，看到一位曾經在應對美國次貸危機的美國財長如今在擔心中國的鋼筋水泥，既使人意外，也奇怪地令人欣喜。金融史可能會出現一些出人意料的變化。