東莞製造業衰退折射中國經濟轉型陣痛
DONGGUAN, China — Walking around an abandoned furniture factory, Fang Minghua pointed out the workshops where several hundred employees once toiled, transforming sheets of raw wood into TV stands or wardrobes for the aspiring middle class in China and other emerging economies.
中國東莞——方明華（音）在一家廢棄傢俱廠的周圍走着，指着曾經是上百名工人辛勤工作的廠房，工人們曾在那裏用粗木板製造電視櫃和衣櫃，供應給中國及其他新興經濟國家裏渴望成爲中產階級的人
The factory is relocating to a new facility two hours away, priced out by rising costs and falling orders. Mr. Fang estimated that as many as a third of the furniture factories around town had gone out of business, while many others were struggling.
這家工廠正在搬到距此地兩小時車程的新址，由於成本不斷上升、訂單減少，它在這裏已無法生存。據方先生估計，東莞有多達三分之一的傢俱廠已經倒閉，許多其他廠家也在苦苦掙扎。
“The economic slowdown is real,” said Mr. Fang, 46, who over the past 22 years had worked his way up from $50-a-month laborer to production supervisor.
46歲的方先生說，“經濟放緩是真的。”在過去的22年裏，他從每月掙50美元（約合400元人民幣）的打工者升到生產主管的位置。
The downturn in Dongguan, a once-thriving manufacturing hub, is part of the Chinese economic puzzle that global investors are trying to solve.
東莞曾是繁榮的製造業中心，這裏出現的衰退是全球投資者在試圖解決的中國經濟難題的一部分。
While China has been moving away from the type of low-end manufacturing that has been Dongguan’s specialty, the protracted slump in the country’s vast industrial sector is a major threat to the nation’s already slowing economy. As the government tries to manage the situation, the risk is that the Chinese economy is worse off than expected — a concern that has put markets around the world on edge.
雖然中國已經逐漸從東莞特長的低端製造業轉型，但國內龐大工業部門的長期低迷對國家已經放緩的經濟是個嚴重的威脅。隨着政府試圖對情況進行控制，存在着中國經濟情況實際上比預期差的風險，這種擔憂已讓世界各地的股票市場坐立不安。
The latest signals from China don’t offer much reassurance, with the economic weakness showing little sign of abating. On Tuesday, China reported growth of just 6.8 percent for the fourth quarter, its slowest expansion since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009.
來自中國的最新信號並沒有給人提供多少安慰，經濟疲軟沒有任何減弱的跡象。週二，中國公佈的去年第四季度增長率只有6.8％，這是自2009年的金融危機深淵以來，最慢的經濟擴張速度。
When it comes to the economy, Mr. Fang said, politicians and business leaders talk about industrial innovation and upgrading, “but I think that is just a slogan. It’s really hard to carry out.”
方先生說，每當說到經濟時，政客和商業領袖們就大談特談產業創新和升級，“但我認爲那只是個口號。其實很難實現。”
Dongguan is at the heart of south China’s Pearl River Delta. For decades, the region drove the country’s global ascent in exports, rolling out furniture, garments, shoes and other goods.
東莞位於中國南方珠江三角洲的核心位置。幾十年來，這個地區推動着中國向全球出口量的上升，製造了從傢俱到服裝和鞋等各種商品。
But the world’s workshop has been stumbling as cheaper production bases in Asia have gained ground. Last year, Chinese exports fell for the first time since the financial crisis — and for only the second time since the country’s economy began reopening to the outside world in the late 1970s.
但是，隨着亞洲成本更低的生產基地逐漸形成，東莞的世界工廠已經面臨困境。去年，中國的出口量自金融危機以來首次下降，這也僅僅是經濟自從在20世紀70年代末向世界開放以來，中國出口量的第二次下降。
That position is likely to be further eroded by the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The United States-led trade agreement deepens American ties with Asian countries like Vietnam and Malaysia, but it excludes China.
中國在全球製造業的地位很可能會由於跨太平洋夥伴關係而受到進一步的削弱。這一以美國爲首的貿易協議將深化美國與越南和馬來西亞等亞洲國家的關係，但不包括中國。
The slump has created a tricky situation for the government.
經濟低迷已給政府製造了一種棘手的局面。
Officials have encouraged phasing out low-end exports in favor of promoting the service sector and high-tech manufacturing. While newer and more dynamic companies are on the rise in China, the risk is that they won’t develop fast enough to offset the hollowing out of light manufacturing, which remains a shrinking but significant employer across the country.
官員們在鼓勵逐步淘汰低端出口產品，同時在提倡服務業和高技術製造業。儘管更新、更充滿活力的公司在中國呈上升的趨勢，但風險在於，這些公司的發展速度不夠快，不足以彌補輕工製造業的空缺，輕工製造業雖然在收縮，但仍是全國各地的主要用人單位。
Some traditional manufacturers have responded to the downturn by relocating farther inland or overseas, where costs are generally lower. Others are trying to reduce their reliance on export orders by establishing their own branded products for domestic sale.
一些傳統的製造商對經濟衰退的響應，是把工廠向內地或海外搬遷，因爲這些更遠地方的成本通常相對較低。其他製造商則努力在國內市場上建立自己的品牌產品，以減少對出口訂單的依賴。
“This is an unfortunate pain being felt in traditional, older sectors,” said Louis Kuijs, the head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics. However, he added, the shift away from low-end, labor-intensive manufacturing “is an unavoidable part of the structural change that the economy is undergoing.”
“這種不幸的痛苦正在傳統老行業中感受到，”牛津經濟研究院(Oxford Economics)亞洲經濟負責人高路易(Louis Kuijs)說。他補充說，但是，從低端的勞動密集型製造業轉型，“是正在發生的經濟結構性變化的一個不可避免的部分。”
Zhang Lin, 43, is trying to adapt to the shifting terrain.
43歲的張林（音）正在努力適應這種轉型。
As a supervisor, Mr. Zhang, who left his home in western Sichuan Province 25 years ago to work in Dongguan shoe factories, once oversaw about 7,000 production-line workers at a Taiwanese-owned factory here. At their peak, before the financial crisis, factories in the city accounted for about one in every four pairs of athletic shoes sold globally, according to estimates from the Dongguan Shoe Industry Commerce Association.
25年前，張先生離開了他在四川省西部的老家，到東莞鞋廠打工，後來當了主管，他曾在這裏的一家臺資工廠負責監督大約7000名生產線上的工人。在金融危機之前的鼎盛時期，東莞工廠生產的運動鞋，大約佔到全球出售運動鞋的25%，據東莞鞋業協會的估計。
But rising costs have weighed heavily on the shoemaking business. The Taiwanese factory where Mr. Zhang worked closed in 2012. He and several partners went out on their own, setting up a plant making shoes and leather boots for brands like K-Swiss and Durango. Today, Mr. Zhang’s factory employs about 700 people.
但是，成本上升也給製鞋企業帶來了沉重的壓力。張先生爲其工作的臺資工廠已於2012年倒閉。他和幾個夥伴一起辦了一家自己的工廠，爲蓋世威(K-Swiss)和杜蘭戈(Durango)等品牌生產鞋子和皮靴。如今，張先生的工廠僱了大約700名工人。
While costs are rising, demand from overseas customers has also been declining. The company’s orders slipped to about 1.2 million pairs of shoes last year, down about 15 percent from 2014.
成本在上升，海外客戶的需求也在不斷下降。去年，公司訂單上的鞋子減少了約120萬雙，與2014年相比，下降了15％左右。
