香港購物街門店租金將下滑近20%

Rents in Hong Kong, home to some of the world’s most expensive shopping streets, are forecast to fall by up to 20 per cent this year as luxury retailers suffer because of the corruption crackdown and economic slowdown in mainland China.

預計今年香港門店租金將最多下跌20%，原因是中國內地的反腐運動和經濟放緩令奢侈品零售商受到衝擊。全球最昂貴的一些購物街位於香港。

Surging Chinese demand for jewellery, watches and designer goods sent rents in Hong Kong’s most famous shopping streets rocketing in recent years, overtaking New York’s Fifth Avenue, Paris’s Champs-Élysées and London’s Bond Street.

最近幾年，中國對珠寶、手錶以及設計師產品的需求飆升，推動香港最知名購物街的門店租金直線上漲，超過了紐約第五大道(Fifth Avenue)、巴黎香榭麗舍大街(Champs-Élysées)和倫敦邦德街(Bond Street)。

But as lower Chinese spending started to hit rents, Hong Kong’s Causeway Bay lost its crown as the world’s most expensive retail district to Fifth Avenue at the end of last year, according to Cushman & Wakefield, a property agency.

但房地產經紀商高緯環球(Cushman & Wakefield)的數據顯示，隨着中國內地遊客削減支出的行爲開始衝擊到門店租金，去年年底，香港銅鑼灣將全球最昂貴零售街區的桂冠拱手讓與紐約第五大道。

Now investment bank Credit Suisse and estate agent Savills expect rents to fall by 20 per cent this year, while JLL, another property company, expects a 10-15 per cent drop.

如今，投行瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)和房地產經紀商第一太平戴維斯(Savills)預測，今年香港的門店租金將下跌20%，另一家房地產服務公司仲量聯行(JLL)預計，租金將下跌10%至15%。

“Because of the anti-graft drive in China there are fewer people buying gifts and less show of wealth, at the same time as there’s been a slowdown in the Chinese economy,” said Nick Bradstreet, head of leasing for Savills in Hong Kong. “It’s also become cheaper to buy luxury goods in South Korea, Japan or Europe because of the exchange rate.”

“由於中國的反腐運動，購買禮品的人和炫富現象都有所減少，另外中國內地的經濟也一直在放緩。”第一太平戴維斯駐香港的租賃業務主管尼克•布拉德斯特里特(Nick Bradstreet)表示，“還有，由於匯率因素，現在在韓國、日本或歐洲購買奢侈品要便宜一些。”

Credit Suisse forecasts that retail sales in Hong Kong will fall by 5 per cent this year to HK$469bn ($60.5bn), the biggest annual drop since 2000, with sales of jewellery, watches and luxury goods sliding by 12 per cent.

瑞信預測，香港零售額今年將下滑5%，至4690億港元（合605億美元），爲2000年以來的最大年度降幅。珠寶、手錶和奢侈品銷售額將下滑12%。

In addition to the anti-corruption push and slower economic growth, Chinese tourists have also been deterred because of growing protests against their presence by Hong Kong residents frustrated at the jump in visitor numbers.

除了反腐運動和經濟增長放緩，中國內地遊客還因一些香港居民日益反對他們出現在香港而取消了赴港計劃。之前中國內地赴港遊客人數激增令這些香港居民感到不滿。

The number of mainlanders visiting Hong Kong, which is governed semi-independently under the “one country, two systems” arrangement, fell by 10 per cent year-on-year in March, according to the Hong Kong Tourism Board.

根據香港旅遊發展局(Hong Kong Tourism Board)的數據，今年3月，赴港內地遊客人數同比減少10%。香港依照“一國兩制”擁有高度的自治權。

Joyce Kwock, a property analyst at Credit Suisse, believes falling currencies in Japan, South Korea and the eurozone have accelerated the move away from Hong Kong as more adventurous Chinese tourists fly further afield in search of discounts.

瑞信房地產分析師Joyce Kwock認爲，日本、韓國以及歐元區匯率的下跌加快了中國內地遊客遠離香港的速度，越來越多喜歡探索的中國內地遊客飛到更遙遠的地方尋找打折商品。

“Hong Kong street-store rents have been boosted to such a high base in the last few years so they are very vulnerable to a downturn,” she said.

她表示：“過去幾年，香港購物街門店租金被推升到一個很高的水平，因此很難抵禦不景氣的衝擊。”

Analysts believe individual landlords will bear the brunt of the slowdown, while high-end shopping malls have a better chance of sustaining rents because they offer a more varied shopping environment and help retailers with marketing.

分析師認爲，受衝擊最大的將是個人房東，而高端購物商場有更大可能維持租金水平，因爲它們可提供更加多樣的購物環境並幫助零售商營銷。

While some landlords and luxury brands including Burberry suffer, cheaper retailers like Zara and Mango could benefit from the opportunity to open in high-profile streets at lower rents.

一些房東以及包括博柏利(Burberry)在內的奢侈品品牌將受到衝擊，但Zara和芒果(Mango)等較低端零售商可能會成爲受益者，因爲門店租金的降低爲它們在知名購物街開店提供了機會。

“Fast fashion and affordable cosmetics brands should be able to find good locations that they couldn’t get three years ago,” said Tom Gaffney, head of retail at JLL. “We will see a change in the look of the shopping streets in Hong Kong and that is good for the retail sector because now it’s boring, with so many watch and jewellery stores.”

“快速時尚以及平價化妝品品牌應該能夠拿到3年前無力負擔的好地段。”仲量聯行零售業主管湯姆•加夫尼(Tom Gaffney)表示，“我們會看到香港購物街的格局發生變化，這對於零售業是件好事，因爲該行業現在有些無趣，手錶店和珠寶店太多。”