石油供應充足的時代或成泡影
The most interesting message in this year’s World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency is also its most disturbing.
在國際能源署(IEA)今年發佈的《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)中，最令人矚目的信息也最令人不安。Over the past decade, the oil and gas industry’s upstream investments have registered an astronomical increase, but these ever higher levels of capital expenditure have yielded ever smaller increases in the global oil supply. Even these have only been made possible by record high oil prices. This should be a reality check for those now hyping a new age of global oil abundance.
過去10年裏，油氣行業上游業務投資暴增，但新增資本支出帶來的新增全球石油供應量不斷縮小。儘管情況不盡如人意，這還是靠創紀錄的高油價支撐才得以實現的。對於眼下那些鼓吹全球石油充足新時代已經到來的人而言，這應是當頭一棒。According to the 2013 WEO, the total world oil supply in 2012 was 87.1m barrels a day, an increase of 11.9m b/d over the 75.2m b/d produced in 2000.
根據2013年《世界能源展望》，2012年，全球石油總供應量爲每日8710萬桶，這個數字較2000年的7520萬桶增加了1190萬桶。
However, less than one-third of this increase was in the form of conventional crude oil, and more than two-thirds was therefore either what the IEA calls unconventional crude (light-tight oil, oil sands, and deep/ultra-deepwater oil) or natural-gas liquids (NGLs).
然而，在新增部分中，常規原油只佔不到三分之一，另外逾三分之二要麼是IEA所說的非常規原油（輕緻密油(light-tight oil)、油砂和深水及超深水石油(deep/ultra-deepwater oil)），要麼是天然氣凝析液(NGL)。This distinction matters because unconventional crude has a higher cost than conventional crude, while NGLs have a lower energy density.
區分新增部分的不同來源很重要，因爲非常規原油的成本高於常規原油，而天然氣凝析液的能量密度低於常規原油。The IEA’s long-run cost curve has conventional crude in a range of $10-$70 a barrel, whereas for unconventional crude the ranges are higher: $50-$90 a barrel for oil sands, $50-$100 for light-tight oil, and $70-$90 for ultra-deep water. Meanwhile, in terms of energy content, a barrel of crude oil is worth 1.4 barrels of NGLs.
根據IEA的長期成本曲線，常規原油的成本區間爲每桶10美元至70美元，而非常規原油的成本區間位於較高水平：油砂的每桶成本爲50美元至90美元，輕緻密油爲50美元至100美元，超深水石油爲70美元至90美元。與此同時，1桶原油所含能量相當於1.4桶天然氣凝析液。Threefold rise
資本支出12年擴大逾兩倍The much higher cost of developing unconventional crude resources and the lower energy density of NGLs explain why, as these sources have increased their share of supply, the industry’s upstream capex has grown. But the sheer scale of the increase is staggering: upstream outlays have risen more than threefold in real terms over the past 12 years, reaching nearly $700bn in 2012 compared with only $250bn in 2000 (both figures in constant 2012 dollars).
由於開發非傳統原油資源的成本比傳統原油高得多，而天然氣凝析液能量密度比傳統原油低，因此隨着這些來源在原油供應中比例上升，該行業的上游資本支出一直在增加，並且增幅相當驚人：過去12年，上游業務實際資本支出擴大逾兩倍，2012年達到近7000億美元，而2000年這個數字僅爲2500億美元（這些數據均以2012年定值美元計算）。Coinciding with the rise in US tight-oil production, most of this increase in upstream capex has occurred since 2005, as investments have effectively doubled from $350bn in that year to nearly $700bn in 2012 (again in 2012 dollars).
與美國緻密油產量增加的時間相吻合，新增上游業務資本支出大部分發生在2005年以後，實際上，投資從2005年到2012年翻了一番，從3500億美元增至近7000億美元（同樣以2012年定值美元計算）。All of which means the 2013 WEO has the oil industry’s upstream capex rising by nearly 180 per cent since 2000, but the global oil supply (adjusted for energy content) by only 14 per cent. The most straightforward interpretation of this data is that the economics of oil have become completely dislocated from historic norms since 2000 (and especially since 2005), with the industry investing at exponentially higher rates for increasingly small incremental yields of energy.
所有這些都意味着，如2013年《世界能源展望》所示，自2000年以來，石油行業上游業務的資本支出擴大了近180%，但全球石油供應（按能源含量調整後）僅增加了14%。對這一數據的最直接解讀是，自2000年（特別是自2005年）以來，石油的經濟性已完全偏離歷史正常水平，行業投資呈指數增長，而創造的能源產出增量卻越來越少。The industry has been able and willing to finance such a dramatic increase in its capital investment since 2000 owing to the similarly dramatic increase in prices. BP data show that the average price of Brent crude in real terms increased from $38 a barrel in 2000 to $112 in 2012 (in constant 2011 dollars), which represents a 195 per cent increase, slightly greater in fact than the increase in industry capex over the same period.
自2000年以來，石油行業之所以一直能夠而且願意爲資本支出的飆升買單，是因爲油價同樣出現飆升。英國石油(BP)數據顯示，布倫特(Brent)原油的每桶實際均價已從2000年的38美元升至2012年的112美元（以2011年定值美元計算），漲幅高達195%，實際上略高於同期石油行業資本支出的增速。However, looking only at the period since 2005, capital outlays have risen faster than prices (90 per cent and 75 per cent respectively), while in the past two years capex has risen by a further 20 per cent (the IEA estimates 2013 upstream capex at $710bn versus $590bn in 2011), while Brent prices have actually averaged about $5 a barrel less this year than in 2011.
然而，如果只考察2005年至2012年這段時期，資本支出增速是高於油價漲幅的（分別爲90%和75%）。此外，在過去兩年裏，資本支出進一步擴大20%（IEA估計，2013年上游業務資本支出爲7100億美元，而2011年這一數字爲5900億美元），而布倫特原油今年的每桶均價實際上比2011年還要低5美元左右。Iran not a game changer
伊朗不會扭轉乾坤Moreover, this vast increase in capex has occurred during a prolonged period of record-low interest rates. Once interest rates start rising again, this will put further pressure on the industry’s ability to make the massive capital outlays required to keep supply growing.
另外，資本支出的大幅增加出現在利率處於創紀錄低位的一段超長時期內。一旦利率開始再次上升，就會進一步壓縮石油行業大規模資本支出的能力，而這種能力是石油行業保持供應不斷增加所必需的。Of course, the diplomatic breakthrough achieved with Iran over the weekend could provide some short-term relief to the market, as Iran’s exports could ultimately increase by up to 1.5m b/d if and when western sanctions are fully lifted. But this would not change the dynamics of the industry’s capex treadmill in any fundamental sense.
當然，不久前西方對伊朗的外交突破可能會讓市場暫時鬆一口氣，因爲如果西方完全解除制裁，屆時伊朗石油日出口量可能最終會增加150萬桶之多。但這不會從根本上改變石油行業的資本支出態勢。The IEA estimates that global production of conventional crude oil from all currently producing fields will decline by 41m b/d by 2035 (an average of 1.9m b/d per year), so Iran’s potential increase of 1.5m b/d would compensate for just 10 months of natural decline in global conventional-crude output.
IEA估計，到2035年，目前全球所有產油區的常規原油總日產量將減少4100萬桶（平均每年減少190萬桶），因此，伊朗可能增加的150萬桶日出口量僅夠彌補全球常規原油日產量頭10個月的自然下滑。In short, behind the hubbub of market hype about a new age of oil abundance, the toil for oil is in fact more arduous and back-breaking than ever. This should worry everybody, because with the evidence suggesting that consumers are reluctant to pay much above $110 a barrel, it is an open question what happens next to the industry’s investment plans and hence, over time, to the supply of oil.
簡而言之，在市場大肆鼓吹石油充足新時代到來之際，生產石油事實上已變得比以往任何時候都更爲艱難。所有人都應爲此感到擔憂，因爲有證據表明，消費者不願爲每桶超過110美元的油價買單，因此，石油行業投資的計劃將何去何從，以及從長遠來看對石油供應會產生怎樣的影響，眼下都還是未知數。
