沙特削減供應推動油價回升
Oil prices moved higher yesterday amid reports that Saudi Arabia, Opec’s largest producer, cut the amount of crude it supplied last month.
油價昨日上漲，有報道稱，石油輸出國組織（Opec，簡稱歐佩克）最大產油國沙特阿拉伯上月削減了原油供應。ICE December Brent, the international oil marker, rose 1.9 per cent to $86.32 a barrel, while Nymex December West Texas Intermediate advanced 1.4 per cent to $81.74 a barrel.
洲際交易所(ICE) 12月交貨的布倫特(Brent)原油價格上漲1.9%，至每桶86.32美元，紐約商業期貨交易所(NYMEX) 12月交貨的西德克薩斯中質原油(West Texas Intermediate)價格上漲1.4%，至每桶81.74美元。
The gains followed reports that the kingdom had supplied international and domestic markets with 9.36m barrels a day of crude last month, down from 9.68m in August.
此前有報道稱，沙特阿拉伯上月向國際和國內市場供應的原油數量爲每日936萬桶，低於8月的968萬桶。
Oil has dropped 25 per cent since reaching $115 a barrel in June, hit by concerns about slowing demand growth and rising supplies. The sell-off has intensified because of fears that Saudi Arabia has started a price war by refusing to cut production and lowering its official selling prices.
自今年6月達到每桶115美元之後，油價已下跌25%，因市場擔心需求增速放緩且供應增加。由於沙特阿拉伯拒絕減產，還調降了官方售價，市場擔心該國開啓了一場價格戰，這加劇了油價下跌。Paul Horsnell, analyst at Standard Chartered, said yesterday’s rise made sense only if investors believed the theory that Saudi Arabia was trying to drive prices down to take market share. “In that context, these comments could be seen as pushing against the view that Saudi Arabia has started a price war.”
渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)分析師保羅•霍斯耐爾(Paul Horsnell)表示，只有在投資者相信沙特正試圖壓低價格以搶奪市場份額這一理論的情況下，昨日的油價上漲才說得通。“在這種情況下，這些言論可能被視爲反駁沙特開打價格戰的說法。”Other market watchers said it was not clear that Saudi Arabia had unilaterally cut production to rebalance the market. “We do not share this interpretation and maintain our view that Saudi Arabia has not made a deliberate decision to cut,” said Amrita Sen at Energy Aspects.
其他市場觀察人士表示，現在還不清楚，沙特阿拉伯是否爲了恢復市場平衡而單方面減產。Energy Aspects的阿姆瑞塔•森(Amrita Sen)表示：“我們不這麼認爲，我們堅持我們的觀點，即沙特阿拉伯並未有意做出減產決定。”Several Opec members, including Venezuela and Libya, have called on the cartel to take action on prices. But it is not clear whether it will cut production when its meets in Vienna next month.
包括委內瑞拉和利比亞在內的多個歐佩克成員國，一直呼籲歐佩克就油價採取措施。但目前還不清楚，歐佩克是否會在下月的維也納會議上減產。Ms Sen said if the cut had been planned, Saudi Arabia would have lowered production rather than just volumes supplied, because the excess oil would just be stockpiled. The reports also claimed the kingdom had pumped 9.7m b/d in September, up from 9.6m b/d in August.
森表示，如果削減措施是在計劃之中，沙特阿拉伯本將降低產量，而不是僅僅減少供應量，因爲多出的石油只是變成了庫存。有報道稱，沙特阿拉伯9月的石油產量爲每日970萬桶，高於8月的960萬桶。“We believe the lower number reflects weaker domestic demand, stockpiling . . . and difficulties experienced in placing barrels in September,” said Ms Sen. The market was so “short”, any vaguely positive headline could push prices higher, she added.
森表示：“我們認爲，供應減少反映出較爲疲弱的國內需求、庫存……以及在9月尋覓石油買家方面的困難。”她補充稱，市場非常“短缺”，任何貌似積極的消息都會推升油價。News that industrial activity in the eurozone had grown faster than expected in October was seen as supportive for oil, as was a fresh reading of Chinese industrial activity. However, Capital Economics said the latter was not as positive as it had first appeared.
有消息稱，歐元區10月工業活動增速快於預期，這被視爲一個支撐油價的因素，中國工業活動的最新數據也是一個利好因素。然而，凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)表示，中國的形勢不如乍看之下那樣正面。
