緬甸是金礦還是陷阱? Myanmar:Gold Mine Or Sinkhole?
Private-equity firms are divided over whether Myanmar will be a source of huge profits, or just another place to endure losses.
緬甸是鉅額利潤的源頭，亦或只是又一個讓人虧錢的地方？在這個問題上，私募股權行業出現了分歧。Some private-equity funds already are scrambling to raise cash to pour into the Southeast Asian nation, which has only just cracked open to Western investors after a secretive military junta stepped down in 2011. They see big opportunities in health care, real estate and other businesses that were starved of capital during five decades of military rule, while other Asian nations zoomed ahead. Yet many other firms, including big-name players such as KKR & Co. and Blackstone Group LP, are holding back.
部分私募股權投資基金已經在急急忙忙地籌集資金投入這個東南亞國家。2011年行事詭祕的軍政府下臺之後，緬甸剛剛向西方投資者開放。50年軍事統治期間，在其他亞洲國家快速發展之際，緬甸的醫療、地產等行業極度缺乏資金，因此私募公司從中看到了巨大的機遇。但還有很多公司按兵不動，比如KKR & Co.和黑石集團(Blackstone Group LP)等知名品牌。The clash of views has important implications for Myanmar, which struggled to raise money during the years of military control and still has limited options for tapping international finance, despite more than a year of reforms. Western governments have lifted most of the sanctions they imposed over the past two decades to punish Myanmar for alleged human-rights violations.
這種觀點的碰撞對於緬甸有着重要的意義。緬甸在軍政府統治期間籌資困難，而目前在改革了一年多之後，利用國外資金的渠道仍然有限。西方國家過去20年爲懲罰所謂緬甸侵犯人權而施加的制裁措施，大部分已經取消。
But while multinational firms such as General Electric Co. GE -0.90% and PepsiCo Inc. PEP +0.16% are looking for opportunities in Myanmar, many have focused mainly on selling products here rather than investing capital to build factories or other assets. To make matters worse, local banks still don't have lending systems in place to finance many major corporate expansions.
但在通用電氣(General Electric Co.)和百事(PepsiCo Inc.)等跨國公司到緬甸尋找機會之際，很多公司主要側重於在緬甸銷售產品，而不是投資建廠或投資於其他資產。更糟的是，當地銀行仍然沒有建立起爲很多重要企業擴張活動提供資金的貸款體系。Silk Road Finance, an investment firm that recently opened an office in Yangon, says it has raised $25 million so far from private investors. Cube Capital, an investment company with offices in London and Hong Kong and $1.3 billion under management, recently invested in two Myanmar property deals worth more than $20 million. The firm is looking to raise up to $200 million for deals in several emerging Asian markets, with about one-fourth of the funds targeting Myanmar.
相關報道投資公司Silk Road Finance最近在仰光開了一家辦事處。該公司說，目前爲止它已經從私人投資者手中籌集資金2,500萬美元。在倫敦和香港都有辦事機構、管理資產13億美元的投資公司Cube Capital，最近投資了緬甸的兩筆房地產生意，價值逾2,000萬美元。該公司打算籌集最多2億美元的資金用來投資亞洲的多個新興市場，約四分之一的資金以緬甸爲目標。Others in the hunt include Leopard Capital, whose chairman is veteran emerging-markets fund manager Marc Faber, which is seeking to raise $150 million for two Myanmar-focused funds. Bagan Capital, with offices in Hong Kong and Myanmar, is also seeking to scoop up $75 million for Myanmar deals.
其他追逐機會的公司還包括資深新興市場基金經理麥嘉華(Marc Faber)任董事長的Leopard Capital。該公司計劃爲兩隻以緬甸爲主要投資對象的基金籌資1.5億美元。在香港和緬甸都有辦事處的Bagan Capital也打算爲投資緬甸籌集7,500萬美元。Some investors, however, worry that the political and economic risks in Myanmar are still too big, and that asset prices are getting pushed beyond reasonable levels. Others figure any deals to be had will simply be too small.
但部分投資者擔心緬甸的政治經濟風險依然太大，並擔心資產價格已被哄擡至不合理的水平。另一些投資者則認爲，要投資的話，投資規模實在太小。And there are lingering questions about legal protections for foreign investors, and how the funds will be able to exit their investments even if they do well. Myanmar has no corporate bond market or stock exchange of note, and only a rudimentary banking system, limiting the ability of investors to cash out of their investments through the local markets.
對外國投資者的法律保護如何，以及即使投資業績不錯，基金公司能不能退出，這些都是投資者心中懸而未決的疑問。緬甸缺乏有一定分量的公司債券市場或股票市場，只有一個不成熟的銀行系統，所以投資者很難通過當地市場將其投資套現。'I assure you that all the projects now in Myanmar will fail,' said John Van Oost, founder and managing partner of Yishan Capital Partners, an investment firm with offices in Singapore and Indonesia that specializes in real estate. Land prices already are too inflated there, he said, and it isn't yet clear which local partners are reliable.
Christopher Davy / The Wall Street Journal仰光一處接近完工的房地產項目前，一名人力車伕在等待顧客。在新加坡和印度尼西亞設有辦事機構、專注於房地產的投資公司Yishan Capital Partners的執行合夥人John Van Oost說，我向你保證，目前緬甸的所有項目都將倒閉。他說，緬甸地價已經太高，而且當地的哪些合作伙伴可靠也還不清楚。'A lot of people are rushing into Myanmar. We don't think that market's ready,' said Ming Lu, regional leader for KKR in Southeast Asia.
KKR東南亞地區負責人路明說，很多人都在涌向緬甸，而我們認爲這個市場還沒有做好準備。To be sure, business leaders, both foreign and local, widely expect Myanmar to become one of Asia's fastest-growing economies if overhauls continue. But a failure by companies to get capital from outside investors could delay economic growth. In turn, a sputtering economy could dash the hopes of Myanmar's 60 million people, many of whom are expecting to see benefits from recent changes.
誠然，緬甸國內外商界領袖都普遍預計，如果改革繼續進行，緬甸將成爲亞洲增長最快的經濟體之一。但如果企業不能從境外投資者手中獲得資金，經濟增長就有可能遇到阻礙。而如果經濟發展不順利，則有可能澆滅緬甸6,000萬人的希望。很多緬甸人都期待能夠從最近的改革當中獲益。More skeptical private-equity players in Asia say they have learned from previous market openings─especially Vietnam in the 1990s─that first movers don't always make money, in part because changes rarely move as quickly as investors hope.
對此表示更加懷疑的亞洲私募投資者說，他們從過去某些國家開放市場（特別是90年代的越南）的過程中領教到，先行者未必掙錢。這在一定程度上是因爲改革的進度很少像投資者希望的那樣快。Myanmar also has seen private-equity investments go sour before, during a brief economic opening in the 1990s. Still, more adventurous investors are betting that they will be able to secure relationships with the most reputable local entrepreneurs and lock up some of the best opportunities.
緬甸以前也出現過私募投資失敗的案例。這些投資發生在90年代一場短暫的經濟開放期間。但是，更有冒險精神的投資者覺得，他們將能夠與當地最有聲望的企業家建立關係，從而鎖定一部分良機。'It's the first in, the early mover, that benefits from the best deals and the best relationships,' said Kenneth Stevens, a managing partner at Leopard Capital.
Leopard Capital執行合夥人史蒂文斯(Kenneth Stevens)說，受益於最佳交易、最佳關係的，是第一批進入的人，也就是先行者。
