趣店股價過山車

Private companies in China are practised at staying one step ahead of their government. Western investors are less sure-footed. A Chinese crackdown on new online lenders extended the selloff in shares of micro-lender Qudian, which listed in the US last month. The stock closed more than a fifth below its listing price on Tuesday.

中國的民營企業都深諳始終比政府先行一步的道理。西方的投資者們卻沒這麼有備無患。中國一份停止審批新的網絡貸款公司的通知，令上個月在美國上市的小額貸款公司趣店(Qudian)的股票進一步暴跌。週二趣店股票收盤價較發行價下跌了20%多。

The Alibaba-backed credit service announced a $100m buyback programme amounting to less than 2 per cent of the public float on the same day that the news broke. Given it only just sold stock to the US public, and had negative equity of $357m as of June, this is a curious use of the proceeds. The move may, however, help prop up the value of chief executive Min Luo’s billion-dollar stake in the controlling share class.

消息爆出同日，這家阿里巴巴(Alibaba)支持的信貸服務公司宣佈了一項1億美元的回購計劃，該計劃擬回購的股票數量不及公衆持股量的2%。考慮到趣店纔剛剛在美國公開上市，而且截止到今年6月其股東權益爲負3.57億美元，如此處置上市籌得的資金頗爲奇特。不過，這樣做可能有助於支撐其首席執行官羅敏所持有的十億美元控股類別股票的價值。

China has not banned online lending for existing companies. But even if Qudian benefits from reduced competition, its business model is exposed to other regulatory headwinds. The People’s Bank of China on Friday said it would prohibit asset-management products that guarantee investment returns from next summer. The group relies on similar funding channels for its own lending activity. It records service fees for facilitating loans by trusts and banks, but remains liable for principle and interest shortfalls.

中國並未禁止既有網絡貸款公司繼續運營網貸業務。但即使趣店因爲競爭減少而獲益，它的商業模式仍面臨其它監管阻力。中國人民銀行(PBoC)表示，從明年夏天開始，將禁止那些承諾保本保收益的理財產品。趣店自己的貸款業務依靠的正是類似的融資渠道。根據趣店招股書，一些信託機構和銀行爲其助貸並收取費用，但如果借款人逾期未能全額償還本金和利息，趣店仍有責任代爲補足。

Qudian’s IPO occurred a day before the congress of China’s Communist party. As expected, scrutiny regarding financial leverage soon intensified. Peer-to-peer lending platforms such as Ping An’s Lufax were already subjected to tougher rules earlier this year. Qudian’s bad loan ratio has also been called into question, after comments by Mr Luo that delinquent debt had been written off as charity payments to borrowers.

趣店在今年的中國共產黨全國代表大會召開前一天首次公開發行(IPO)。正如預期的那樣，對財務槓桿的審查很快就收緊了。今年早些時候，像平安(Ping An)旗下陸金所(Lufax)這樣的個人對個人(P2P)借款平臺就受到了更嚴格的管控。趣店的不良貸款率也已引發質疑，此前羅敏表示，過期不還的款項都一筆勾銷，就當福利送給借款人了。

Investors should give the company a wide berth. A better bet is Ping An Insurance, which is refashioning itself as a financial data sponge. After a 120 per cent year-to-date rally it is the world’s second-largest insurer after Berkshire Hathaway. Even if the Chinese fintech frenzy fizzles, Ping An has a strong and legitimate business to fall back on.

投資者應該對這家公司敬而遠之。平安保險(Ping An Insurance)是一個更好的選擇，它正將自身重塑爲一個金融數據庫。今年至今，在實現了120%的反彈後，平安已成爲全球僅次於伯克希爾哈撒韋(Berkshire Hathaway)的第二大保險公司。哪怕要是中國的金融科技狂潮以失敗告終，平安仍有強大且合法的業務可以依靠。