大宗商品出口國不太可能出現違約潮

The commodity price slump will not lead to a 1980s-style rash of sovereign defaults, despite obstacles blocking the necessary fiscal reform in many exporting countries, according to analysis by Oxford Economics.

根據牛津經濟研究院(Oxford Economics)的分析，儘管種種障礙阻礙許多大宗商品出口國開展必要的財政改革，但大宗商品價格暴跌不會導致類似上世紀80年代的主權信用違約潮。

However, a further wave of sovereign downgrades is likely — with rating agencies still overrating exporters by two notches on average — and a few more countries may be forced to go cap in hand to the International Monetary Fund.

不過，考慮到評級機構對大宗商品出口國的評級仍平均偏高兩個等級，可能會出現新一輪主權信用評級下調，被迫向國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)低聲下氣要錢的國家還會再多幾個。

Oxford Economics identified 28 sovereign defaults by 17 emerging market countries in the wake of the 1980s commodity slump, with Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Venezuela, Ecuador and Iran all defaulting twice.

牛津經濟研究院發現，在上世紀80年代的大宗商品價格暴跌後，有17個新興市場國家發生了28次主權信用違約。其中，巴西、阿根廷、智利、祕魯、委內瑞拉、厄瓜多爾和伊朗都曾兩次違約。

So far this time, none of the 26 big commodity exporters identified by Oxford has defaulted, and it believes only Venezuela has a greater than 10 per cent chance of doing so.

而這一次，到目前爲止，牛津經濟研究院認定的26個大宗商品出口大國還沒有一個發生違約，該機構認爲只有委內瑞拉違約的可能性大於10%。

Moreover, only Ghana and Rwanda are on IMF programmes. Although Angola, which has sought a bailout of up to $1.5bn from the fund, is likely to follow suit, Oxford thinks Ecuador and Zambia are the only other commodity exporters with a more than 25 per cent likelihood of joining them this year.

此外，只有加納和盧旺達正在接受IMF項目的援助。牛津經濟研究院認爲，在其他大宗商品出口國中，只有厄瓜多爾和贊比亞有大於25%的可能性在今年加入上述兩國的行列——儘管安哥拉也有可能加入它們。目前，安哥拉已尋求從IMF獲得最高15億美元的紓困。

“When I first looked at [these countries] I thought they would all be queueing at the IMF,” says Gabriel Sterne, head of global macro research at Oxford.

牛津經濟研究院全球宏觀研究主管加布裏埃爾•斯特恩(Gabriel Sterne)表示：“我剛開始考察（這些國家）的時候，我以爲它們都會在IMF門前排隊。”

He attributes this resilience to two related factors. First, there is an absence of “debt-funding cliffs”. In the 1980s, US interest rates rose as high as 15 per cent, sending yields on dollar-denominated debt spiralling. This time round, borrowing costs have remained more manageable.

他將這次的堅挺歸功於兩個相關因素。首先是這次沒有“債務融資懸崖”。上世紀80年代，美國利率曾攀升至15%的高位，導致以美元計價的債券收益率急劇上升。這一次，借貸成本一直保持在更可控的水平。

Second, emerging market sovereigns have become less likely to borrow in dollars in the first place, instead issuing bonds in their domestic currencies. This means debt service costs do not rise if and when their currencies depreciate against the dollar, and also reduces the incentive for debtor countries to default on, or reschedule, their dollar debt in order to improve their finances.

其次，新興市場國家以美元借貸的可能性從一開始就降低了，相反它們會以本國貨幣發行債券。這意味着在它們的貨幣對美元貶值時（假如這種情形出現的話），償債成本不會上升。同時，這麼做也降低了債務國通過對其美元債務違約或進行重組來改善財政狀況的動力。

“You don’t have the funding cliffs and that’s quite a change,” Mr Sterne says. “It’s liquidity that gets you in the end, that’s why you default. It’s not because of the ever-growing stock of debt.”

斯特恩表示：“這次沒有‘融資懸崖’，這是一個很大的不同。最終給你致命一擊的是流動性，這是導致違約的原因。不斷增長的債務並不是違約的原因。”

Despite that, Mr Sterne still believes there are problems ahead. Instead of a wave of defaults, he envisages an adjustment process that is more of a “long, hard grind”, due to weaker economic growth than in the 1980s.

儘管如此，斯特恩仍然認爲前頭還會遇到問題。他預計，由於當前經濟增速低於上世紀80年代，雖然不會出現違約潮，卻會出現一個調整過程——一段“長期、深重的磨難”。

Moreover, Oxford’s analysis suggests that about a third of the 26 countries — namely Venezuela, Iraq, Mongolia, Angola, Zambia, Nigeria, Gabon, Algeria and Azerbaijan — need to overhaul their fiscal structures in order to reduce reliance on commodities and rebalance public finances.

此外，牛津經濟研究院的分析稱，這26個國家中，有三分之一需要徹底改革財政結構，以減少對大宗商品的依賴，使公共財政重新達到平衡。這些國家是委內瑞拉、伊拉克、蒙古、安哥拉、贊比亞、尼日利亞、加蓬、阿爾及利亞和阿塞拜疆。

In each of these countries energy and minerals account for at least three quarters of goods exports, and the states are adjudged to be high risk, based on a combination of their public debt, fiscal balance, current account and foreign exchange reserves, all measured with respect to their gross domestic product, and GDP per capita, as illustrated in the first chart.

以上每一個國家的能源和礦產都佔到商品出口的至少四分之三。如第一張圖表所示，綜合考慮這些國家的公共債務、財政平衡、經常賬戶和外匯儲備，並根據它們各自的國內生產總值(GDP)以及人均GDP對這些數據進行衡量之後，牛津經濟研究院判定，這些國家存在高風險。

“The task for asset managers is to make a judgment whether there is a way back from the precipice, possibly via IMF programmes, and to what extent currencies will suffer during adjustment,” Mr Sterne says.

“資產管理公司的任務是就是判斷是否有從懸崖回頭的路，或許可以通過IMF的項目實現，以及判斷這些國家的貨幣在調整時期將遭受多大痛苦，”斯特恩說。

In many countries, the necessary adjustment process faces significant obstacles, Oxford argues.

牛津經濟研究院認爲，在許多國家，必要的調整過程面臨顯著障礙。

Azerbaijan, Kuwait, South Africa and Zambia, for instance, are deemed to suffer from a combination of a weak government and popular opinion that is firmly against adjustment.

比如，該機構認爲，阿塞拜疆、科威特、南非和贊比亞面臨的障礙是，弱勢的政府以及堅決反對實施調整的民意。

Indonesia is seen as being in the same boat, but with the added problem of ideological opposition to reform within the government.

印尼被認爲存在同樣的問題，但它還面臨另一個障礙：政府內部在意識形態上對改革的反對。

Some countries suffer from just one of these problems, while a need to fund development and basic infrastructure works against the likelihood of fiscal reform in Cameroon, Gabon, Ivory Coast and Rwanda. The second chart illustrates these perceived obstacles by country.

一些國家只面臨上述三個障礙中的某一個。喀麥隆、加蓬、科特迪瓦和盧旺達這幾個國家進行財政改革的障礙是，需要投入資金搞發展和基本基礎設施建設。第二張圖表按國別說明了這些障礙。

One obvious plus point is the partial recovery in the prices of many commodities from the lows they touched in January.

一個明顯的有利條件是，許多大宗商品的價格從1月觸及的低點反彈了一些。

Brent crude, for instance, is now trading at about $45 a barrel, rather than $27. This is in line with, or above, the oil prices assumed in the budgets of Angola, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Ecuador and Kuwait, although it remains below the levels pencilled in by Bahrain, Ghana, Russia, Colombia and Mexico.

比如，布倫特原油(Brent crude)目前的交易價格約爲每桶45美元，而非27美元。這個價格等於或者高於安哥拉、委內瑞拉、沙特阿拉伯、尼日利亞、厄瓜多爾和科威特預算案中設定的油價，不過仍低於巴林、加納、俄羅斯、哥倫比亞和墨西哥預算案中設定的油價。

Mr Sterne argues that while the rebound in commodity prices is “extremely helpful” in the short term, it does obviate the need for fiscal adjustment, which a lot of countries are already “reluctant to embrace”.

斯特恩認爲，儘管大宗商品價格反彈在短期來看“極其有幫助”，但它也消除了財政調整的必要性，何況有很多國家本來就“不情願進行”財政調整。

Furthermore, it is unlikely to save exporting nations from further downgrades by the rating agencies, he argues. Oxford’s analysis suggests commodity exporters are typically rated two notches higher than other emerging markets with the same sovereign bond yields, suggesting “rating agencies are too optimistic relative to markets”.

此外，他認爲這也不太可能讓大宗商品出口國免於被評級機構進一步降級。牛津經濟研究院的分析師認爲，比起主權債券收益率相同的其他新興市場國家，大宗商品出口國的評級普遍高兩個等級，這表明“相對於市場來說，評級機構過於樂觀”。