中國2月份出口大幅下滑 出現罕見貿易逆差
China recorded a sharp decline in exports and a rare $22.98 billion deficit in February, raising fresh concerns over the strength of the world's No. 2 economy.
中國2月份出口大幅下滑，導致當月罕見地發生229.8億美元貿易逆差。這引發了外界對全球第二大經濟體經濟健康狀況的新擔憂。But analysts cautioned that distortions from the timing of the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday probably contributed to the export decline, and that it remained to be seen whether global demand for Chinese goods continues to show weakness in the months ahead.
但分析師們提醒說，春節時間因素的影響可能是導致中國2月份出口下滑的一個原因，未來數月全球對中國商品的需求是否仍將疲軟還有待觀察。Exports fell 18.1% from a year ago and were far worse than the 5% increase that economists had expected. They followed a strong 10.6% expansion in January and were the first year on year export drop since September 2013.
中國2月份出口同比下降18.1%，比經濟學家此前預計的增長5%要糟糕得多。1月份出口增長10.6%，2月份是去年9月以來中國出口首次出現下滑。
Imports rose a relatively strong 10.1% over a year ago, after a 10% gain in January, and the resulting deficit was the first since a small trade shortfall in March last year. It was also the biggest trade deficit since February 2012 when it hit $31.5 billion.
2月份進口同比增長10.1%，表現相對強勁。1月份進口增長10%。中國上一次出現貿易逆差是去年3月份，當月出現了規模較小的貿易逆差。而2月份的貿易逆差則是2012年2月以來規模最大的逆差，當月的貿易逆差爲315億美元。'I was expecting weak results for February as manufacturers pulled exports forward ahead of the New Year holiday,' said Andrew Polk, economist at the Conference Board.
世界大型企業研究會(Conference Board)的經濟學家波爾克(Andrew Polk)表示，他原本就預計中國2月份出口疲弱，因爲製造商們在春節假期之前進行了提前發貨。'But I definitely wasn't expecting (export) results that were this bad.'
他表示，但他絕對沒有想到結果會這麼糟。Manufacturers often speed shipments ahead of the long holiday when migrant workers return home and production lines fall silent. But if exports continue to struggle in the coming months, this could have serious implications for China's goal of achieving about 7.5% economic growth this year.
中國的製造商通常會在春節長假前加快發貨速度，因爲春節期間外來打工者都會回家過年，生產也會暫停。但如果未來幾個月出口繼續不振，可能會對中國政府實現今年經濟增長約7.5%的目標產生嚴重影響。China's exports had been one of the bright spots in the overall growth picture--just as Beijing tries to restructure its economy away from a reliance on investment and boost the role of consumption to sustain longer term growth.
近來出口一直是中國總體經濟增長中的亮點之一。中國政府正努力推動經濟轉型，降低經濟對投資的依賴，加大消費對經濟的拉動作用，以維持中長期經濟增長。Restructuring could sap some of the momentum from the expansion in the short term, and slower growth could jeopardize hopes of creating 10 million urban jobs this year and keeping urban unemployment below 4.6%.
結構調整短期內可能在一定程度上抑制經濟增長勢頭。如果經濟增長放緩，可能威脅到今年新增1千萬個城鎮工作崗位、將城鎮失業率保持在4.6%以下的目標。China's official gauge of factory activity known as the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index showed its weakest expansion in eight months in February while a competing index compiled by HSBC showed a contraction in the month.
一個衡量工廠活動的官方指標製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)顯示，2月份中國製造業的擴張爲八個月來的最弱水平，而匯豐(HSBC) 2月份中國製造業PMI顯示當月製造業活動出現萎縮。Exports in February were weak almost across the board as the value of shipments to the U.S. fell 11%, while exports to the European Union slid 14% and those to Hong Kong were down 25%.
2月份出口數據顯示，出口幾乎全面疲軟。當月中國對美國出口下降11%，對歐盟出口下降14%，對香港出口下降25%。Analysts said that despite the dismal headline numbers the situation was not entirely grim.
分析師們稱，儘管總體數據低迷，但出口形勢並非一片黑暗。'If we look at combined January and February data the results were not so bad,' said Li Wei, economist at Standard Chartered Bank. 'And I don't think we will continue to see exports fall this year,' he added.
渣打銀行(Standard Chartered Bank)經濟學家李煒表示，如果把1月份和2月份的出口數據結合在一起來看，結果並不是很糟糕。他認爲今年出口不會繼續下滑。Analysts said that over-invoicing by exporters last year inflated the base for comparison in February and this will continue for a few more months.
分析師們稱，去年出口商大量虛開發票，從而擡高了2月份的比較基數，類似的情況還將持續幾個月。Exports surged nearly 22% year on year in February 2013 after a 25% jump in January of that year. Those numbers were widely believed to have been distorted by false invoices from exporters who wanted to skirt foreign exchange controls to bring foreign currency onshore. This was aimed at taking advantage of higher interest rates and an appreciating Chinese currency. The yuan rose 2.9% against the dollar last year, though it underwent a brief bout of weakness last month.
去年1月和2月，中國出口分別同比飆升25%和近22%。市場普遍認爲，這些數字存在失真的情況，因爲出口商大量虛開發票，希望繞開外匯管制將外匯轉移至境內。這麼做是爲了利用國內相對較高的利率以及人民幣升值的機會獲利。儘管上個月人民幣兌美元經歷了一輪跌勢，但去年一年，人民幣累計上漲了2.9%。In May last year, foreign-exchange regulators cracked down on these invoicing practices, warning exporters of tough penalties for making false reports to customs authorities, and thereby squeezing out much of the false reporting.
去年5月，中國外匯監管部門嚴厲打擊了這種虛開發票的行爲，出口商如向海關部門虛報出口將受到嚴厲懲罰，這使得出口商虛報出口的情況少了很多。Analysts said the false invoices of a year ago could continue to affect trade results for a few more months.
分析師們表示，一年前出口商虛報出口的做法可能會繼續對未來幾個月的貿易數據產生影響。'In the coming months the export data is going to remain affected by the large over-invoicing of a year ago. That will continue to make reported export growth look worse than the underlying growth until May,' said Louis Kuijs, economist at Royal Bank of Scotland, in a note to clients.
蘇格蘭皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Scotland)經濟學家高路易(Louis Kuijs)在寫給客戶的報告中稱，未來幾個月的貿易數據將繼續受去年出口商大量虛開發票的影響，5月份之前的貿易增長數據看上去都要比實際的增長情況差。Meanwhile, there was strong demand for resources, a major indicator of China's industrial appetite. Importers continued to build stockpiles and take advantage of low global prices. Crude-oil imports rose 11% from a year earlier to 6.03 million barrels a day, while iron ore imports also were up 22% from February last year. Iron ore prices, for instance, fell to an eight-month low last month on a flood of new supply, as mining companies expanded their operations.
與此同時，中國對資源類產品的進口需求非常強勁。進口商繼續利用全球價格處於低位之機建立庫存。2月份中國原油進口量同比增長11%，至603萬桶/天。鐵礦石進口量同比增長22%。以鐵礦石爲例，由於供應激增，上個月其價格一度跌至八個月低點。Soybean and copper imports also rose by double-digit margins in the period. Still, volumes in all these major categories fell from January's record-setting volumes, in part because of the shorter working period due to the Lunar New Year holidays.
2月份大豆和銅進口也呈現雙位數增幅。不過，以上這些產品2月份的進口量均低於1月份的紀錄高點，一定程度是因爲農曆新年假日讓2月份的工作日天數變少了。
