中國未必出現出口量大幅下滑的情況
Over the weekend, new data showed a severe drop in Chinese exports.
整個週末的最新數據顯示，中國出口大幅下降。China reported May exports were up 1%, compared to up nearly 15% in April, and 24% in the first two months of the year.
中國發布數據說，5月份出口增長了1%，相比之下，4月份出口增長了接近15%，今年頭兩個月的出口增幅爲24%。That’s a dramatic plunge. But the data actually say more about the black box out of which all Chinese numbers emerge rather than the Chinese economy, albeit it says something about the latter as well.
這表明增速已經大幅下降。但是相關數據反映出來的，與其說是中國經濟，不如說是中國產生數據的暗箱，雖然它也能反映出中國經濟的一些信息。
Back in March, we cited one research firm, SouthBay Research, that had noticed the export data coming out of China was way off from the export data coming out of other Asian nations. “One wonders if the surge smacks of desperation, a mad scramble to find profits where normal ways have failed, ” they wrote at the time.
今年3月，我們報道了研究公司SouthBay Research的一些看法。這家機構注意到，中國的出口數據與其他亞洲國家的出口數據差距很大。他們當時寫道，人們自然會懷疑，中國出口的大幅躍升可能帶有一絲絕望色彩，是一些人在正常道路走不通的情況下爲獲取利潤而採取的瘋狂之舉導致的。It took some time, but we are finally getting “clean” numbers, or at least, numbers that are probably closer to reality than the previous data, said Patrick Chovanec, chief strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management.
Silvercrest Asset Management的首席策略師程志宇(Patrick Chovanec)說，雖然花了一些時間，但我們終於得到了“淨”數字，或者至少可能比之前的數據更接近真實情況的數字。Indeed, the rather placid market reaction to the data shows that most people are well aware of the games that get played in China with the economic numbers.
實際上，市場對數據相當平靜的反應顯示出，大多數人都非常清楚中國在經濟數據上玩的把戲。The earlier export numbers were being gamed by companies looking skirt restrictions on capital inflows (the proverbial “hot money”). The crackdown on the bad data was at least partially an attempt to slow down this flow of capital, said Chovanec, who was previously a professor at Tsinghua University’s school of economics in Beijing. Amid consistent fears of investing bubbles over the years, this is no small thing.
早些時候，出口數據被一些尋求逃避資本流入（俗稱熱錢）限制的公司所篡改。程志宇說，對不良數據的打擊至少在一定程度上是爲了使這種資本流入放緩。鑑於多年來對投資泡沫的持續擔憂，這並不是小事。程志宇曾經是清華大學經濟管理學院的教授。The new numbers were an eye-opener, to the observant eye. Exports were expected to rise 7.3%; they rose only 1%. Imports were expected to rise 6%; they actually fell 0.3%. The new numbers “could be” honest numbers, said Robert Hardy, who writes the GeoStrat newsletter. “If so, they could send a chill through the markets.”
對於有心人來說，新的數據發人深省。預期的出口增幅爲7.3%，結果僅增長1%。預計的進口增幅爲6%，實際上卻下降了0.3%。Geostrat的哈迪(Robert Hardy)說，新的數字有可能是真實數據，如果這樣的話，它們可能會讓整個市場感到寒意。“I continue to be deeply concerned about China, ” said Kiron Sarkar, a former Rothschild banker who runs the research shop Sarkar Global Macro. “However, the authorities do not seem to be ready to stimulate the economy, which I believe is declining far faster than most analysts think. Current forecasts that GDP will grow by +7.5% this year are fanciful in my humble opinion.”
前Rothschild Inc.銀行家、目前運營着業務通訊Sarkar Global Macro的薩卡爾(Kiron Sarkar)說，我仍然對中國深感憂慮。不過，有關部門似乎不準備刺激經濟，我認爲目前中國經濟下滑的速度比許多分析師認爲的要快的多。以我的愚見，目前對今年GDP增速將達到7.5%的預測簡直是異想天開。The economy is very likely growing slower than the government is letting on, Chovanec said. He estimates that GDP in 2012 was closer to 5.5% than the official rate of 7.8%. But China’s GDP is a “black box, they control it.”
程志宇說，中國的經濟增速很可能低於政府發佈的數據。他認爲2012年的GDP增速更接近5.5%，而不是官方發佈的7.8%。但是中國的GDP是個暗箱，控制權在他們手中。The government’s gotten itself in a bad cycle of issuing debt to fuel growth. A lot of the credit is going into bad, unproductive investments (think the infamous ghost cities). Rather than take the loss, the government issues more debt to cover the payments on the older debt. Every year the returns get smaller and smaller.
政府已經陷入了靠發行債券來刺激增長的惡性循環。許多貸款都被用於不良的、無成效的投資（想想臭名昭著的鬼城吧）。政府非但沒有承擔損失，還發行了更多債券來償還更早的債務。這些債券的回報每年都在縮水。It sounds scary, but it may or may not lead to a “Minsky moment” event, Chovanec said. It could just as well be a Japanese style slow burn. Indeed, Chovanec said China’s economy has plenty of potential growth, but without some kind of correction or adjustment, the cycle just keeps feeding itself and investors keep buying the bad debt in expectations that the government will keep covering it. If you’re thinking right now, that sounds familiar, well, it is.
程志宇說，這聽起來很可怕，但它是否會引發“明斯基時刻”(Minsky moment)式的事件還不好說。它也可能只是日本式的慢燒過程。實際上，程志宇說，中國經濟有足夠的增長潛力，但是如果缺少某種修正或調整，這個惡性循環將會持續下去，投資者將繼續購買不良的債券並期待着政府將會買單。如果你現在覺得這聽起來耳熟，的確如此。Either way, the new export numbers show the Chinese economy is not at all what it’s cracked up to be.
無論怎樣，新的出口數據能夠說明的是，中國經濟根本不像它自己所說的那樣好。
