3月份中國貿易賬轉爲順差

The dollar value of China’s exports grew faster than expected in March as import growth moderated from a February spike, restoring a trade surplus after the previous month saw the first deficit since early 2014.

繼2月中國進口增速飆升之後，3月進口增速有所減緩，而以美元計的出口增長快於預期，這使得中國貿易賬在2月呈現逆差之後在3月轉爲順差。今年2月的貿易逆差爲2014年初以來的首次。

Exports grew 16.4 per cent year on year in dollar terms in March, according China’s General Administration of Customs. That was well above a median estimate predicting a rise of 4.3 per cent from economists surveyed by Bloomberg and appeared to represent a robust recovery from February’s fall of 1.3 per cent in outbound shipments.

中國海關總署數據顯示，3月，以美元計的中國出口額同比增長16.4%。這遠遠高於彭博社(Bloomberg)對經濟學家進行調查得出的增長預測中位數4.3%，較同比下跌1.6%的2月似乎呈現出強有力的復甦。

Imports meanwhile rose 20.3 per cent year-on-year in dollar terms, a far cry from February’s 38.1 per cent but still visibly higher than a median forecast of 15.5 per cent growth.

另一方面，以美元計的進口額同比增長20.3%，遠低於2月的38.1%的增幅，但仍明顯高於15.5%的預測值中位數。

Those flows produced a trade surplus of $23.9bn after February saw the first deficit in three years, coming close to double a forecast calling for a surplus of $12.5bn.

2月出現3年來首次逆差之後，3月中國實現了239億美元的貿易順差，幾乎相當於預測值125億美元的兩倍。

The renminbi weakened 0.3 per cent against the greenback over the course of March to Rmb6.8872 per dollar, and the impact of that softening was evident from renminbi-denominated growth figures, which saw exports up 22 per cent and imports up 26.3 per cent from a year earlier. That added up to a surplus of Rmb164.3bn for the month, according to customs.

3月，人民幣兌美元匯率下跌0.3%，至1美元兌6.8872元人民幣，從以人民幣計的進出口增長數據中可以清晰地看出貶值的影響。其中，出口增長22%，進口增長26.3%。這導致3月貿易順差達到1643億元人民幣（海關總署統計數字）。

While monthly trade figures for January and February tend to be relatively erratic due to the influence of the long lunar new year holiday, the March data are typically viewed as more reliable indicators of the health of China’s trade flows.

春節長假的影響往往導致1月、2月的月度貿易數據不太穩定，而3月數據通常被認爲是衡量中國貿易健康狀況的更可靠指標。

Quarterly trade flows in renminbi terms were released earlier in the morning without explanation, showing a 31.1 per cent rise in imports and a 14.8 per cent rise in exports for the period.

上午早些時候，中國發布了以人民幣計的季度貿易數據，但未進行解讀。數據顯示，一季度中國進口增長31.1%，出口增長14.8%。