澳佳寶該擔心中國海淘稅嗎

The risk with small companies is that they may never get big. Australian investors jumped into several small companies last year, making them a lot larger in terms of market value. Now, they worry that revenues and profits may not catch up — especially where growth is closely linked to China.

小公司的風險在於他們可能永遠不會變成大公司。澳大利亞的投資者去年蜂擁投資了幾家小公司，令它們的市值漲了很多。現在，他們擔心這些公司的收入和盈利可能跟不上預期——尤其是在增長高度依賴中國的情況下。

Blackmores, the health supplement producer, is one such name. Last year it returned 470 per cent against a mining-dominated local benchmark that was down nearly a tenth. On Tuesday, it took a pounding on confirmation that China is raising taxes on foreign goods bought over the internet and shipped through free trade zones.

保健品生產商澳佳寶(Blackmores)就是這樣一家公司。去年它的股價飆漲470%，而澳大利亞以礦商爲主的基準股指下降了近十分之一。週二，該公司股價受到重創，原因是中國將提高跨境電商通過自由貿易區配送的境外商品所需繳納的稅率。

Chinese shoppers are price conscious, so news that the cost of goods they buy over the internet might rise is of concern. Bears also suggest this may herald more general regulatory scrutiny of such wares. But, as JPMorgan points out, the effective change so far is minimal. On transaction sizes most applicable to ordinary retail buyers, the tax rises from 10 per cent to 12 per cent — still lower than the 17 per cent value added tax payable in Chinese shops. There are also exemptions for certain goods. Phillips Capital says none of Blackmores’ products are affected.

中國消費者的價格意識較強，因此有關他們網上購物成本將上漲的消息令人擔憂。悲觀人士還提出，這可能意味着對此類商品更爲廣泛的審查。然而，正如摩根大通(JPMorgan)所指出的，迄今爲止實際變化很小。從適用於普通消費者的多數交易規模來說，稅率從10%提升至12%——仍低於在中國國內商店消費所需繳納的17%的增值稅。而且對特定貨物還能豁免。輝立資本(Phillips Capital)表示，澳佳寶的產品並未受到影響。

More than price, Chinese shoppers are conscious of quality. Goods sourced overseas are popular, particularly consumables related to health, because production standards are perceived to be more stringent. Blackmores has benefited from this. For the six months ended December, the company estimates that two-fifths of revenues were from China. That one country now contributes more sales than all of Asia did two years ago.

不僅是價格，中國消費者還關心商品質量。海購商品很受歡迎，尤其是健康相關的消費品，因爲人們普遍認爲國外的生產標準更嚴格。澳佳寶正得益於此。該公司估計，去年下半年營收的五分之二來自中國。如今中國貢獻的銷售額超越了兩年前整個亞洲的銷售額。

After such a stellar run, Blackmores shares had got ahead of themselves, but at 23 times next year’s earnings for 26 per cent growth, some of the regulatory risk is now discounted. The question is how much. The company will weather this storm, but the next one — if it comes to pass — may put a bigger dent in its valuation.

在出現如此大幅的漲勢後，澳佳寶的股價有點超前了，但鑑於股價是明年預期盈利的23倍、而增長達到26%，一部分監管風險已被計入價格。問題是多少。該公司會渡過這場風暴，但下一場風暴（如果出現的話）可能對其估值有更大打擊。