人民幣匯率再次讓世界困惑 Chinese currency moves sow confusion

Not for the first time this year, the behaviour of the Chinese renminbi is causing more than the odd furrowed brow in the markets

人民幣波動正在令全球市場眉頭緊鎖，這已不是今年的第一次。

The powers that be in China have spent much of the past few months patiently explaining that their currency’s long-time peg against the dollar is history, and henceforth the renminbi will be managed with reference to a trade-weighted basket of 13 currencies.

過去幾個月中國當局花費大量精力耐心解釋，人民幣與美元的長期掛鉤已成爲歷史，今後人民幣的管理將參照由13種貨幣組成的貿易加權貨幣籃子。

Amid widespread confusion over the change in foreign exchange policy, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People’s Bank of China, spelt it out in mid-February, when he said keeping the exchange rate against the basket “at a broadly stable level” will be the “keynote” of the new regime.

面對市場對人民幣匯率改革存在的普遍困惑，中國央行(PBoC)行長周小川2月中旬作出了詳細說明，他表示保持一籃子匯率的“基本穩定”，將是新的人民幣匯率形成機制的“主基調”。

“As a result,” he added, “the stability of the renminbi to a basket of currencies will be strengthened and the two-way volatility of the renminbi to the US dollar enhanced.”

他同時表示：“實施這種形成機制的結果，將是人民幣對一籃子貨幣的匯率的穩定性不斷增強，而人民幣對美元的雙向波動則會有所加大。”

All of which makes the currency’s behaviour since the introduction of the exchange rate regime slightly puzzling.

這一切令人民幣新匯率形成機制引入以來的人民幣波動有些令人費解。

So far this year, the renminbi has been virtually flat against the dollar, but fallen 2.9 per cent against the basket to its lowest level since November 2014, as the chart shows.

如圖所示，今年到目前爲止，人民幣兌美元匯率基本持平，但對一籃子貨幣匯率卻下跌2.9%，跌至2014年11月以來最低水平。

“If this continued [this will] undermine the People’s Bank’s case that the currency is being kept ‘basically stable’,” says Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, who says the Chinese authorities have “mismanaged” the renminbi since first announcing the basket in December.

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)首席亞洲經濟學家馬克•威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)表示：“如果持續如此，就會動搖中國央行的說法，即人民幣正保持‘基本穩定’。”他表示自去年12月首次宣佈人民幣匯率參考一籃子貨幣以來，中國有關部門對人民幣一直“管理不善”。

“December’s oblique statement that they were managing [the renminbi] against the basket was one of the triggers of the [global market] panic. So they responded by locking down volatility against the dollar, the opposite to what the statement had suggested,” Mr Williams says.

威廉姆斯表示：“去年12月他們曾隱晦地聲明正在參考一籃子貨幣管理人民幣匯率，這成爲全球市場恐慌的誘發因素之一。而他們的反應是鎖定人民幣對美元的波動，這與12月的聲明正相悖。”

He believes the People’s Bank has taken advantage of a period of broad dollar weakness to let the renminbi slide, a move that has gone little noticed with most attention still focused on the bilateral rate against the dollar.

他認爲中國央行利用了美元全線走弱時期讓人民幣下滑，此舉鮮少引起注意，因爲大部分注意力仍集中於人民幣兌美元的雙邊匯率。

Robert Minikin, head of Asia FX strategy at Standard Chartered, believes at least part of the weakening of the renminbi on a trade-weighted basis is “tactical”, given that the dollar might be expected to strengthen anew if and when the US Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates again.

渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)亞洲外匯策略負責人羅伯特•米尼金(Robert Minikin)認爲，人民幣在貿易加權基礎上走弱至少在部分上是“戰術性的”，這是考慮到如果當美聯儲(Fed)開始再次加息，美元預計會重新走強。

By choosing not to let the renminbi strengthen against the softer dollar now — which would happen if the Chinese currency was held steady against the basket — the People’s Bank is leaving more room for the renminbi to partially follow the greenback higher in future without losing too much competitiveness.

在美元較疲軟的現階段，通過選擇不讓人民幣對美元走強——如果人民幣對一籃子貨幣匯率持穩，就會導致人民幣對美元走強——中國央行正爲人民幣留出更大空間，未來可以在一定程度上跟隨美元上漲，而不會失去太多競爭力。

Mr Minikin’s view stems from his perception that China is in reality steering a “middle path” between maintaining a stable trade-weighted rate and a stable rate against the dollar.

米尼金的觀點源於他的一個看法，即中國實際上在沿着一條“中間路線”航行，它介於維持穩定的貿易加權匯率與維持穩定的兌美元匯率之間。

“When you get big moves in the dollar’s value, they are reflecting that in some way in the [renminbi’s] fix, but not in a way to completely prevent it feeding through into [the trade-weighted] value,” he says.

他表示：“如果美元匯率出現大幅波動，他們將以某種方式把它反映到人民幣中間價上，但又不會完全阻止它傳導至貿易加權匯率。”

“I think it’s still in transition, the idea that they have jumped directly to manage against the basket hasn’t been borne out by these moves,” says Mr Minikin, who believes this period of transition could last for several years given the wider world’s continuing obsession with the bilateral dollar rate.

米尼金說：“我認爲人民幣匯率機制仍處於過渡期。這些舉動還體現不出他們已經直接跳躍到參考一籃子貨幣管理人民幣匯率。”他認爲考慮到全球市場繼續執迷於人民幣兌美元雙邊匯率，這一過渡期可能會持續數年。

In reality, the Chinese authorities have always said that while they want the renminbi to be broadly stable against the basket, this does not entail a hard and fast peg.

事實上，中國當局一直表示，雖然他們希望人民幣對一籃子貨幣匯率基本穩定，但這並不意味着要牢牢掛鉤。

Instead, movements are supposed to reflect “the dynamic of market supply and demand” in the “real economy” (the supply and demand dynamics emanating from the activities of “speculators” do not count).

相反，人民幣的波動應反映出“實體經濟”中“市場的供求變化”（“投機者”活動引起的供求變化不計算在內）。

David Bloom, head of FX research at HSBC, believes the renminbi’s recent moves do reflect a partial transition towards a more market-oriented currency, as well as a desire to create more uncertainty in the minds of traders.

匯豐(HSBC)外匯研究主管戴維•布盧姆(David Bloom)認爲，人民幣近期波動確實反映出其匯率制度在一定程度上正朝着更市場化的方向過渡，同時反映出中國當局希望在交易者心中建立更多不確定性。

“Don’t think they are going to micromanage [the renminbi’s rate]. They will keep us guessing a bit and that’s what you have to do in financial markets,” Mr Bloom says.

布盧姆說：“不要以爲他們會對（人民幣匯率）進行微管理。他們會讓我們一直猜來猜去，而這正是我們在金融市場裏不得不做的事。”

Despite this, Mr Minikin believes there is “every chance” the renminbi will ultimately settle at around the 100 level against the basket, compared with its current level of 98.05.

儘管如此，米尼金還是認爲人民幣對一籃子貨幣匯率指數“很可能”最終落在100左右，目前爲98.05。

The 100-mark is the level the renminbi closed at on December 31 2014, when the International Monetary Fund thought it was about fair value in trade-weighted terms.

100是2014年12月31日人民幣收盤時的水平，當時國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)認爲這是以貿易加權計人民幣的公允價值。

However, given the uncertainty the renminbi’s ructions cause for markets worldwide, he argues there is merit in Beijing adopting a more explicit FX regime to avoid any misunderstandings.

但是，考慮到人民幣波動給全球市場造成的不確定性，米尼金認爲北京方面應採取更明確的外匯制度，以避免產生任何誤解。

“Singapore has been more explicit. It allows for 2 per cent swings of the trade-weighted index around the central rate. That is the sort of thing we are perhaps moving towards,” he says hopefully.

他滿懷希望地說：“新加坡已經採取了更加明確的制度，允許貿易加權匯率圍繞軸心點有2%的波動，這正是我們可能前進的方向。”