拉加德表示"新興經濟體須正視新現實"
Emerging economies are facing a “new reality” that is significantly slowing the pace of economic convergence with the rich world and risks leading to further financial market volatility, the head of the International Monetary Fund has warned.
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)總裁克里斯蒂娜拉加德(Christine Lagarde)警告說，新興經濟體正面臨“新現實”，顯著拖緩了它們與富裕世界經濟趨同的步伐，並有可能造成金融市場進一步波動。
Christine Lagarde told an audience of senior monetary policymakers in Paris yesterday that, after years of success, developing economies needed to confront profound changes now under way.
拉加德昨日在巴黎向參加聚會的高級貨幣政策制定者們發表講話時表示，發展中國家經過多年的成功後，如今需要面對正在發生的一些深刻變化。
“Growth rates are down and cyclical and structural forces have undermined the traditional growth paradigm,” Ms Lagarde told a Banque de France conference to mark the retirement of former governor Christian Noyer.
拉加德表示：“增長率下降，而且週期性和結構性力量已經削弱了傳統增長模式。”此次活動是法國央行爲紀念前行長克里斯蒂安努瓦耶(Christian Noyer)退休而舉辦的。
“On current forecasts, the emerging world will converge to advanced economy income levels at less than two-thirds the pace we had predicted just a decade ago. This is cause for concern.”
“根據目前的預測，新興國家向先進經濟體收入水平趨同的速度將不到我們十年前所預測水平的三分之二。這是令人擔憂的事。”
The change would also reverberate in rich economies, she added. A 1 per cent slowdown in emerging markets will cause already-weak growth in advanced countries to slow by about 0.2 percentage points, Ms Lagarde said.
她還表示，這一變化也會對富裕經濟體產生影響。拉加德表示，新興市場經濟增長放緩1%，將導致先進國家已經疲軟的增長率放緩0.2個百分點左右。
Her warning comes amid growing concerns at both the fund and the World Bank over the slowdown under way in emerging economies. The World Bank last week warned that developing economies were facing a difficult year in 2016 after last year growing at their slowest rate since the 2008 global financial crisis.
拉加德提出警告時，IMF和世界銀行(World Bank)都對新興經濟體的增速放緩感到更加擔憂。世界銀行上週警告說2016年發展中經濟體將面臨艱難的一年，去年它們的經濟增速是2008年全球金融危機以來最慢的。
The angst among investors over slowing growth, particularly in China, and how authorities are responding has also led to a volatile start to the year in financial markets.
投資者普遍對發展中經濟體，尤其是中國的經濟增速放緩，以及當局應對方式抱有憂慮，這種情緒引發今年金融市場動盪的開局。
As well as urging policymakers to keep monetary policy loose and use fiscal policy and structural reforms to boost growth, Ms Lagarde called for less reliance on debt and greater use of equity financing.
拉加德敦促政策制定者維持寬鬆的貨幣政策，使用財政政策和結構性改革以促進經濟增長。她還呼籲減少對債務的依賴，更多地利用股權融資。
“There is an inherent debt bias embedded in the global tax system. More generally, the international monetary system would benefit from a higher share of equity compared with debt flows,” she said.
拉加德說：“全球稅務體系裏有一種固有的對債務的偏好。但總體而言，股權資本流動的比例若高於債務流動，國際貨幣體系將會受益。”
“This can be achieved by examining instruments that alter the composition and nature of international flows — away from short-term debt and toward longer-term equity flows.”
“這可以通過研究能夠改變國際資本流動的構成和性質的工具來實現，遠離短期債務，轉向較長期的股權流動。”
The IMF managing director added: “Overall, a global shift toward more long-term, equity based capital flows would alleviate concerns about reversals, and lessen the need for insurance. It would also reduce the size of financial buffers that emerging and developing countries need to maintain.”
拉加德還表示：“總的來說，如果全球範圍內出現朝着更長期的、基於股權的資本流動的轉變，將減輕對趨勢逆轉的擔憂，並減少採取防範措施的需要。同時還能降低新興及發展中國家需要維持的金融緩衝規模。”
Ms Lagarde warned that the US Federal Reserve’s shift towards ending its ultra aggressive easing policies had the potential to trigger further exchange rate ructions.
拉加德警告稱，美聯儲(Fed)朝着結束其超激進寬鬆政策的轉變有可能引發匯率進一步波動。
“This volatility could be induced not only by the divergence in monetary policies in major advanced economies, but also by uncertainty about their overall prospects and policy action,” she said.
她說：“可能導致波動性的不止是主要發達經濟體貨幣政策的分化，還有圍繞他們的總體前景和政策措施的不確定性。”
Commenting on the recent bout of turmoil in China, she said the shift towards slower and sustainable growth was positive “in the long run”. But the short-run impact would drag on global trade and commodity prices, as well as triggering financial turmoil.
談到中國最近一輪動盪時，拉加德表示，向更慢的和可持續增長的轉變“從長遠來看”是積極的。但短期來說將拖累全球貿易和大宗商品價格，並引發金融動盪。
Ms Lagarde also signalled that energy prices would remain low.
拉加德還暗示能源價格仍將保持低位。
