反對中國金融業新亮點 保險行業
While investors shun Chinese bank stocks over fears of exposure to rising bad debt and a slowing economy, insurance has emerged as a bright spot in the financial sector, with an emerging middle class expected to buy more cover.
投資者因擔憂中國壞賬攀升和經濟放緩而遠離中資銀行股，保險業則脫穎而出，成爲中國金融業中的一個亮點——中國新興的中產階級有望更多地購買保險。
China's eight Hong Kong-listed insurers were valued at a median 10.7 times estimated 12-month forward earnings in early December, compared with 5 times for banks and 8.5 times for securities brokers, according to Thomson Reuters data.
湯森路透(Thomson Reuters)的數據顯示，12月初，按未來12個月預期盈利計算，在香港上市的8家中資保險公司的預期市盈率中值爲10.7倍；相比之下，銀行與券商的預期市盈率分別爲5倍和8.5倍。
Growth expectations are being fuelled by China’s low rate of insurance penetration, giving providers room to catch up. Premiums were only 3 per cent of Chinese gross domestic product in 2014, compared with 7 per cent in the US and 11 per cent in Japan, according to Swiss Re.
中國較低的保險普及率推升了對保險業增長的預期，也爲保險公司提供了追趕的空間。瑞士再保險公司(Swiss Re)的數據顯示，2014年，保費僅佔中國國內生產總值(GDP)的3%，而在美國和日本，這一比例分別爲7%和11%。
“The insurance industry is brimming with fertile soil. The room for growth is gigantic,” said analysts at Huatai Securities.
華泰證券(Huatai Securities)的分析師稱：“保險業有着廣闊的沃土。增長空間巨大。”
Chinese bank earnings are stagnant and asset growth is slowing amid a debt hangover from the lending binge that followed the global financial crisis. In contrast, insurance premiums grew by 20 per cent in the year to October, on pace to reach Rmb2.24tn ($349bn) for the full year.
中國在全球金融危機之後掀起放貸潮，由此造成了大量債務，在這種背景下，中資銀行盈利增長停滯，資產增長放緩。相比之下，今年前10月，保險業保費收入增長了20%，全年有望達到2.24萬億元人民幣（合3490億美元）。
The government is also pushing supportive policies to expand the role of private insurance in filling out the country’s patchy social safety net.
中國政府也採取支持性政策，以擴大商業保險在填補不完善的社會保障體系方面的作用。
“Whether it’s infrastructure, medical care, pensions, and even education reform — these all need the insurance industry’s participation,” said Meng Zhaoyi, executive director at China Taiping Insurance.
中國太平保險(China Taiping Insurance)執行董事孟昭億說：“無論是基礎設施、醫療、養老金，甚至是教育改革，所有這些都需要保險業的參與。”
Now the challenge for insurers is managing assets that have swelled to $1.85tn. Long restricted to government bonds, insurers have recently been permitted freer rein, allowing them to seek higher yields — and take on greater risk.
如今，保險公司面臨的挑戰是如何管理已暴增至1.85萬億美元的資產。長期以來，保險公司的投資方向被限定在國債上，但近期已獲准更加自由地進行投資，允許他們追求更高的收益率——同時也承擔更大的風險。
High-profile property acquisitions such as Anbang Insurance’s purchase of New York’s Waldorf Astoria Hotel signal the beginning of a wave of outbound investment. Cushman and Wakefield expects Chinese insurers to buy $73bn in foreign real estate by 2019 on top of $13bn invested already.
一些引人矚目的地產收購案——如安邦保險(Anbang Insurance)收購紐約華爾道夫酒店(Waldorf Astoria hotel)——開啓了中國保險業對外投資潮。根據高緯物業(Cushman & Wakefield)，中資保險公司對境外地產投資額已達130億美元，到2019年將再收購730億美元。
Insurers have also diversified their domestic portfolios to include higher-yielding investment in the shadow-banking sector.
中資保險公司還對國內投資組合進行多元化，開始涉足對影子銀行業的收益率較高的投資。
“Increased alternative investments make Chinese life insurers’ credit profiles more vulnerable to an economic downturn as these types of investments are generally less liquid than straight bonds, and are focused on the infrastructure and real estate sectors,” rating agency Fitch said.
評級機構惠譽(Fitch)稱：“另類投資的增加使得中資壽險公司的信用記錄更容易受到經濟低迷的影響，因爲這些類型的投資與普通債券相比通常流動性較差，而且集中在基礎設施、房地產領域。”
Just as China’s state-owned banks are forced to lend to unprofitable projects to support government policy priorities, insurers have also been pressed into a kind of national service. At the height of China’s summer stock market rout, the insurance regulator introduced long-awaited rule changes allowing insurers to increase their equity allocations. It was a clear signal that authorities expected the groups to join the “national team” of state-owned financial institutions in propping up the market.
正如中國的國有銀行被迫放貸給不賺錢的項目以支持政府的優先政策一樣，中資保險公司也承受着不得不“爲國效力”的壓力。今夏中國股市暴跌之際，保險監管機構公佈了行業期待已久的規則修訂，允許保險公司增加股票配置。這是一個明確的信號，表明當局希望保險公司加入由國有金融機構組成的“國家隊”一起救市。
Listed insurers including China Life and Ping An fell shy of earnings forecasts in the third quarter in part due to investment losses from the stock market rout. The market has since recovered, which will boost fourth-quarter results.
多家上市保險公司——包括中國人壽(China Life)和中國平安(Ping An)——第三季度均未實現預期盈利，部分是由於股市暴跌造成的投資虧損。之後股市回升料將提升保險公司第四季度的業績。
Beyond investment risk, the main challenge facing insurers is a lack of consumer awareness. Most so-called life insurance products are more akin to certificates of deposit, where the customer pays a single, lump-sum premium and is guaranteed a payout in several years’ time.
除了投資風險，保險公司面臨的主要挑戰是消費者缺乏保險意識。多數所謂的壽險產品更類似於定期存單——客戶一次性支付保費，數年後保證得到賠付。
Policymakers and insurers want to promote the sale of protection-type insurance products, where payouts are contingent on death, illness, accidents or disaster. The challenge is overcoming Chinese consumers’ reluctance to shell out for a product where a payout is not guaranteed. “Peace of mind” remains an undervalued commodity for Chinese consumers.
政策制定者和保險公司希望推動保障型保險產品的銷售，這類產品的理賠取決於死亡、疾病、意外事故或災難。挑戰在於克服中國消費者不願意爲一款沒有回報保證的產品掏錢。“心安”對中國消費者而言仍是一種價值被低估的商品。
“The general public still considers insurance an investment product. So it’s not just the life insurance companies that have to change; the culture has to change,” said Walkman Lee, partner at KPMG China in Beijing, who leads the firm’s insurance consulting practice.
畢馬威中國(KPMG China)駐北京合夥人、保險諮詢業務主管李樂文(Walkman Lee)說：“公衆仍將保險視爲一種投資產品。因此，不僅是壽險公司必須變革；保險文化也需要變化。”
To achieve this shift, the industry needs to overcome a reputation for questionable sales tactics. China Life, the country’s second-largest insurer by revenue, has a sales staff of 949,000 people. By comparison, US insurer State Farm, which has similar revenue, has only 18,000. That has created unprecedented challenges for training and monitoring.
要實現這種轉變，保險業需要洗清其遭到質疑的銷售策略帶來的不良聲譽。按收入算，中國人壽是中國第二大保險公司，該公司擁有94.9萬名銷售人員。相比之下，與其收入相當的美國州立農業保險(State Farm)只有1.8萬名銷售人員。中資保險公司龐大的銷售隊伍給培訓和監督帶來了前所未有的挑戰。
“The Chinese consumer severely distrusts anyone trying to sell them insurance,” said Sam Radwan, partner at Enhance, a consultancy focused on China’s insurance industry.
專注中國保險業的諮詢公司Enhance的合夥人薩姆拉德溫(Sam Radwan)說：“中國消費者嚴重不信任任何試圖向他們推銷保險的人。”
While life insurance accounts for two-thirds of premiums, auto insurance is the fastest-growing. Recent deregulation of auto insurance prices has created opportunities for insurers to introduce risk-based pricing based on analytics. Mr Lee says a few auto insurers are already experimenting with so-called usage-based insurance, where the customer installs a device in his car that tells insurers how much he drives, and how safely.
雖然壽險佔到了保費收入的三分之二，但車險增長最快。近期政府對車險價格放寬管制，爲保險公司創造了引入基於分析的風險定價模式的機會。李樂文表示，一些車險公司已嘗試推出“基於駕駛情況的保險”，即所謂UBI模式——客戶只需在自己的車中安裝一款裝置，讓保險公司可以瞭解汽車的行使里程，以及司機駕駛習慣的安全程度。
“What the insurance industry is growing into is different from what we see today. You know more or less what the Chinese banking industry will be in the next five years. The insurance industry is still shaping itself,” said Mr Radwan.
“中國保險業的未來將大異於我們今天所看到的。你多少都會知道中國銀行業五年後會是什麼樣子，但保險業仍在自我塑造，”拉德溫說。
