融中國於現行金融秩序
In the celebrated “special relationship” between Britain and the US, it is unusual for one side to rebuke the other publicly. This week a senior White House official delivered a rare, if unattributable broadside against the UK over its China policy.
在英美這段著名的“特殊關係”中，其中一方公開指責另一方的情況非同尋常。上週，白宮一位高級官員罕見、或者說讓人摸不着頭腦地炮轟了英國的對華政策。
The trigger was a decision by David Cameron’s government to join China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, one of a constellation of institutions that China has set up to promote international development. The US had lobbied allies in the G7 and Asia not to join the institution and Britain’s defiance is the latest sign of how the bilateral relationship is under pressure. But the spat should also prompt some hard thinking in the US about its approach to China’s rise as a global economic power.
事件起因是戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)政府決定加入中國主導的亞洲基礎設施投資銀行（Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank，簡稱亞投行）。該銀行是中國爲推動國際化發展而設立的一系列機構之一。美國曾遊說其在七國集團(G7)和亞洲的盟友不要加入亞投行，而英國的決定成了反映英美雙邊關係承受壓力的最新跡象。但此番爭執也應該引起美國慎重思考其對中國崛起爲全球經濟大國的應對方法。America’s sensitivity to the creation of banks such as AIIB is understandable. Rivalry between Washington and Beijing for global economic influence is intensifying. Since the end of the second world war, the US has been the dominant voice, partly thanks to the creation of the Washington-based World Bank and International Monetary Fund. China is now challenging the Bretton Woods set-up by creating financial bodies to help it gain greater political influence in the Asia-Pacific region and other parts of the world.
美國對成立亞投行之類的銀行態度敏感是可以理解的。華盛頓與北京方面爭奪全球經濟影響力的競爭日益激烈。自第二次世界大戰結束後，美國一直掌握着主導話語權，這部分得益於總部位於華盛頓的世界銀行(World Bank)與國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的成立。如今，中國通過建立金融機構，來幫助其在亞太地區與世界其他地區獲得更大政治影響力，並以此挑戰佈雷頓森林體系。
The US may want to stop the growth of these bodies. But its lacklustre stewardship of the Washington-based international financial institutions is one of the reasons rivals are proliferating.
美國也許希望阻止這類機構的發展。但是，美國對位於華盛頓的國際金融機構庸庸碌碌的管理，也是競爭對手不斷涌現的原因之一。The influence of the World Bank as a lending institution has declined, partly because of more restrictive lending focused on poorer countries. At the IMF, the US has proved incapable of helping to give the fund more firepower and a more representative share of votes that reflects the rising power of emerging markets. Having agreed changes to the funding quotas that determine voting rights on the IMF’s board, the US has been unable to get its contribution past an isolation-minded Congress.
世界銀行作爲貸款機構的影響力已經下降，部分是由於其以較貧窮國家爲重點對象的貸款的限制性加深。而對於IMF，在幫助該機構擁有更多資金，以及進行更具代表性的投票權分配、以反映新興市場日益增加的影響力的問題上，美國已經表現出無能爲力的一面。在同意改革IMF出資份額（決定各國在IMF理事會的投票權）後，美國卻無法讓一意孤行的國會通過改革方案。George Osborne, UK chancellor, claims that Britain is joining the AIIB in order to help to bind China into a global rules-based system rather than encouraging Beijing to press ahead without western countries. Others see opportunism with Mr Osborne pitching for the City of London in its attempt to capture a portion of the renminbi trade and other Beijing goodies.
英國財政大臣喬治•奧斯本(George Osborne)聲稱，英國加入亞投行是爲了更好地幫助中國融入以規則爲基礎的全球體系，而不是鼓勵北京方面在沒有西方國家參與的情況下繼續推進。其他人則視之爲一次投機主義行爲，認爲奧斯本是在推銷倫敦金融城(City of London)，幫它從人民幣交易以及北京的其他好處中分一杯羹。By becoming the first G7 country to join the institution, Mr Osborne will have endeared himself to Beijing. But Britain’s move will also encourage China to continue pursuing its strategic goals through a policy of divide-and-rule. It would have been preferable had the G7 adopted a united strategy towards the AIIB rather than seeing one nation break away in its own interest.
通過使英國成爲七國集團中首個加入亞投行的國家，奧斯本將會贏得北京的青睞。但是英國此舉也將鼓勵中國繼續通過分而治之的政策來實現其戰略目標。如果七國集團能對亞投行採取一個統一策略，而不是任由一個國家出於自身利益而脫離整體，可能對他們更有利。The UK’s move serves as another warning to the west of how unco-ordinated its policy towards China has become. Within the UK it should also prompt some hard thinking about what kind of role Britain wants to play in the world. For most of the postwar period, Britain punched above its weight as a staunch ally of the US. Today, that alliance is under strain, even if the common interests ultimately prevail over present tiffs.
英國的舉動也再次向西方警示，西方國家的對華政策是多麼不協調統一。在英國內部，它也應引起一些關於英國希望在世界上扮演何種角色的深思。在戰後的大部分時間內，英國勉力充當了美國的堅定盟友。如今英美同盟關係承受着壓力，即便共同利益最終會壓倒目前的爭執。The stewardship of the global financial system is up to the US. Washington seems flatly opposed to anything which raises China’s financial profile and threatens the status of the dollar. It does not like being left out of new arrangements. In the last resort, the US must decide how to integrate China into the pre-existing financial order without sullying free market principles. Keeping China at bay at all costs will likely encourage Beijing to build its own parallel system from scratch.
全球金融體系的管理取決於美國。華盛頓似乎一味反對任何提升中國金融影響力並且威脅美元地位的事。美國不喜歡被冷落在新安排之外。在不得已的情況下，美國必須決定，如何在不破壞自由市場原則的情況下把中國融入業已存在的金融秩序之中。不惜一切代價把中國拒之門外的做法，很可能將刺激中國從零開始建立自己的並行體系。
