人民幣入籃只是一件負擔沉重的禮物
Until China’s currency joined the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights on Monday the term rarely attracted headlines. This event drew so much attention because many see its inclusion as an acknowledgment of China’s status as a global economic power. The renminbi is the first emerging market currency to be added to the elite basket and the first new one since the SDR’s creation, nearly 50 years ago. For China, it has been a much sought after goal. In financial significance, however, it is still largely symbolic since it will be decades before the renminbi becomes a major international currency.
終於，人民幣加入了國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的特別提款權(SDR)籃子，在此之前這個術語鮮少成爲新聞焦點。此事之所以吸引了衆多關注，是因爲許多人將此視作對中國作爲世界經濟大國地位的承認。人民幣是這個精英貨幣籃子納入的第一個新興市場貨幣，也是SDR創立近50年來第一個新成員。加入SDR一直是中國孜孜追求的目標，但它從金融意義來說基本仍是象徵性的，人民幣要想成爲主要國際貨幣還需要幾十年時間。
Including the renminbi in the basket of reserve currencies — to join the dollar, euro, yen and pound — would seem to be an obvious move given’s China’s economic weight in the global economy, might be viewed as a gift from the western financial powers — but it also carries a heavy burden that Beijing may come to regret. Under the qualifying rules a new entrant has to meet two criteria. The candidate must be a major trading nation, which China clearly is. And its currency must be “freely usable”. Initially this was understood to mean “freely convertible or tradable” and if so, the renminbi would not qualify given China’s extensive capital controls. But the IMF came out with the interpretation that it means widely used in international transactions — and this condition was met given its use in trade finance, swap arrangements and currency spot markets.
鑑於中國經濟在全球經濟中的比重，人民幣納入儲備貨幣籃子——加入美元、歐元、日元和英鎊的行列——似乎顯得順理成章，而且這或許可視作西方金融大國送出的一份禮物，但這份禮物也承載着沉重的負擔，可能會讓北京方面爲此後悔。根據IMF的達標規定，新進入者必須滿足兩個條件。候選者必須是主要貿易大國，這一點中國明顯滿足。此外候選者的貨幣必須“可自由使用”。第二條最初被理解成“可自由兌換或交易”，如果照這樣解釋，人民幣就不符合資格，因爲中國存在廣泛的資本控制。但IMF給出的解釋是，“可自由使用”指的是廣泛應用於國際交易，鑑於人民幣在貿易融資、貨幣互換以及外匯現匯交易上的使用，第二個條件也滿足了。
That the major powers were willing to go along with this might seem surprising given the past practice of dealing firmly with China on global economic concerns, including its adherence to World Trade Organisation guidelines. But it was not really a concession since the ultimate objective was to use SDR inclusion as a means to push for more market reforms, in particular improving the country’s financial markets and eliminating its capital controls.
各大國願意支持人民幣加入SDR似乎有些出人意料，畢竟它們過去在全球經濟問題上對中國採取嚴厲態度，包括要求中國遵守世界貿易組織(WTO)的指導原則。但這並不是真的讓步，因爲它們的最終目標是以將人民幣納入SDR作爲一種手段，以推動中國進行更多市場改革，尤其是改善其國內金融市場，消除其資本管制。
In the interim, the IMF’s principle that the renminbi meet the “freely usable” test will have little impact until the supply of renminbi becomes more available globally. There is little recognition of how difficult it is to make a country’s currency available in the global financial system. The US did this by running huge trade deficits and paying with dollars. It also gave dollars away through its aid programmes. But China will not want to run trade deficits instead of surpluses, nor is it logical for a developing country to give its money away to richer nations. The only other option is for Beijing to open its capital markets more fully to external borrowers so they can buy renminbi. This would be likely to increase volatility and risks for the country’s relatively under-developed and inadequately regulated markets.
在此期間，除非人民幣在全球變得更容易獲得，否則IMF關於人民幣應滿足“可自由使用”條件的原則不會產生多大影響。但對於一種貨幣在全球金融體系中變得容易獲得有多麼困難，人們還缺乏認識。美國靠揹負巨大的貿易逆差，並用美元來支付，才做到了這一點，而且美國還通過援助計劃提供美元資金。中國不會想將貿易順差換成貿易逆差，況且一個發展中國家向較富裕國家捐資本身也不符合邏輯。北京方面剩下的唯一選擇就是向外部借款者更加全面地開放資本市場，讓他們能購買人民幣。對於中國發展程度相對不足、監管不完善的市場來說，這樣做很可能會增加波動性及風險。
Promoting the renminbi as a global currency will make it much harder for Beijing to manage its more immediate growth and stabilisation needs. There is a conflict between having it play a role as an international currency — which means a strong and stable one — and the need to allow market forces to set its value in response to cyclical shifts. The leadership cannot have it both ways unless it takes a different approach to managing exchange rate adjustments.
推動人民幣發展爲一種國際貨幣，意味着北京方面要滿足較近期的增長和穩定需要將困難得多。讓人民幣扮演國際貨幣角色——這意味着保持堅挺、穩定——與允許市場力量決定匯率以順應週期性變化是相沖突的。當局不可能兩者兼得，除非採用不同的方法來管理匯率調整。
The major challenge now is to maintain some degree of exchange rate stability while allowing market forces to play a role. China currently appears to be caught in a no man’s land. If Beijing allows the renminbi to depreciate significantly, it would probably be criticised by the US, which still holds the view that it is undervalued. China would also be vulnerable to concerns of its neighbours that it is engaging in competitive devaluations to maintain trade advantages. Yet, by tying its rate to the dollar, the renminbi is seen by most market observers except the US as overvalued, given the massive depreciations of its major Asian trading partners and the likely continued flow of capital abroad as Chinese investors seek to diversify their holdings.
現在的主要挑戰是要保持一定程度的匯率穩定，同時允許市場力量發揮作用。中國目前似乎陷入了一個無人區。如果北京方面允許人民幣大幅貶值，很可能會受到美國方面批評，美國仍認爲人民幣的價值被低估了。而且中國還會受到鄰國的指責，這些國家會認爲中國進行競爭性貨幣貶值以保持貿易優勢。但鑑於人民幣匯率與美元的關聯性，美國以外的市場觀察家大多都認爲人民幣的價值被高估了，理由包括其亞洲主要貿易伙伴的貨幣大規模貶值，以及隨着中國投資者尋求多樣化投資，資本很可能會繼續外流。
There is a path, though, that would harmonise the objective of promoting renminbi usage abroad while moving to more market-based movements. That is by focusing more on regional trade and investment patterns. Nearly half of the country’s trade is processing-related — comprising parts and components from other east Asian countries that are assembled in China for export to the west. Currencies of several Asian countries already track the renminbi more closely than the dollar, which means it could be used as a “reference currency”. Asia would generally benefit from greater use of the renminbi to improve trade efficiency and reduce exchange-rate risk in intra-regional trade.
但還是有一種方法，可以既達到擴大人民幣在境外使用的目標，同時使人民幣轉向更加基於市場的波動。這個方法就是把注意力更多放在區域貿易和投資模式上。中國近一半的貿易與加工相關，包括從其他東亞國家進口零部件在中國組裝然後銷往西方。部分亞洲國家的貨幣與人民幣的緊密性已經超出了與美元的關係，意味着人民幣已可以用作“參考貨幣”(reference currency)。亞洲整體上將受益於人民幣的更廣泛使用，藉此提高貿易效率，降低區域內貿易的匯率風險。
As a reference currency, the renminbi should move more in line with Asian currencies and be unlinked from the US dollar. Some depreciation is thus likely but it should be done through gradual and more flexible exchange rate adjustments rather than being bundled into unexpected large adjustments over a few days. The currency would thus be relatively stable relative to its major Asian trading partners but move more flexibly in relation to the dollar.
作爲參考貨幣，人民幣應脫離與美元的密切關聯，而與亞洲各國貨幣的走勢更加一致。這可能會造成一些貶值，但應該循序漸進的、通過更靈活的匯率調整來完成，而不是在短短几日內出其不意地倉促進行大規模調整。如此一來，人民幣走勢相對於中國在亞洲主要貿易伙伴的貨幣將較爲穩定，相對於美元將更加靈活。
Yukon Huang is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment and a former World Bank country director for China
黃育川是卡內基國際和平基金會(Carnegie Endowment)高級研究員、世界銀行(World Bank)前中國業務局局長
